Key Stats for McDonald’s Stock
- Current Price: $284.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$429
- Street Target: ~$345
- Potential Total Return: ~51%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
- Earnings Reaction: +3.1% (May 7, 2026)
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
McDonald’s (MCD) entered Thursday’s earnings down as much as 16.70% from its May 4, 2026, peak, with investors split on whether its value-driven turnaround was rescuing traffic or quietly eroding margins. Bulls saw a franchise powerhouse offered at a discount. Bears questioned whether the economics could hold.
The quarter gave bulls more to work with. McDonald’s reported adjusted EPS of $2.83 and revenue of $6.52 billion, beating the LSEG consensus of $2.74 on EPS and $6.47 billion on revenue. Global comparable sales, meaning sales at restaurants open at least thirteen months, grew 3.8%. The stock jumped 3.1% before pulling back as executives flagged a tougher consumer environment ahead.
The Value Strategy Is Working
McDonald’s runs what CEO Chris Kempczinski calls a “3 for 3” strategy: winning simultaneously on value, marketing, and menu innovation.
The U.S. posted comparable sales of 3.9%, with positive guest count gaps versus its nearest competitors. The Extra Value Meals (EVM) relaunch from September 2025 drove that recovery. CFO Ian Borden confirmed the EVM financial support program came in below its initial estimate of approximately $35 million, meaning the traffic recovery cost less than planned.
In mid-April, McDonald’s added an everyday affordable price (EDAP) menu, offering ten core items under $3, spotlighted nationally with a $2.50 McDouble and $1.50 Sausage McMuffin. Borden said early reads are “in line with our expectations.”
Internationally, the U.K., Germany, and Australia led the International Operated Markets (IOM) segment to 3.9% comparable sales growth. The International Developmental Licensed (IDL) segment, which covers Japan and China, grew 3.4% in comps. McDonald’s gained share in nearly all of its top 10 markets in the quarter.
See historical and forward estimates for McDonald’s stock (It’s free!) >>>
The Beverage Launch Is the Longer-Term Story
The bigger development for long-term investors happened this week. McDonald’s rolled out three refreshers and three crafted sodas nationally under the McCafe brand, while Germany and Canada simultaneously launched new beverage platforms. Beverages carry higher margins than food and drive incremental visit frequency, meaning a customer who returns specifically for a drink is an additive transaction.
Kempczinski estimates McDonald’s holds roughly mid-40% share in beef but only high-teens share in chicken, with beverages more nascent still. Those are management’s own estimates from the earnings call, not audited figures, but they illustrate the headroom. Red Bull-infused energy drinks are coming later in 2026, with timing driven by operational and distribution readiness.
What Bears Are Still Watching
Borden said U.S. company-operated restaurant margin performance “is not acceptable.” Those corporate-run stores, a small share of the total U.S. footprint, were investing in extra labor while restraining price increases, a combination that compressed margins franchisee-run locations avoided. McDonald’s is now reviewing whether to refranchise those stores. Kempczinski said any decisions would be discussed at the Investor Day on September 23 in Chicago.
France was also called out. The market lacked a disciplined value platform and only launched a new one in late April, acting as a drag on an otherwise solid IOM quarter.
The bigger macro concern is gas prices. Kempczinski acknowledged consumer sentiment “may be getting a little bit worse,” and that low-income traffic is still declining, though at a slower rate than the high single-digit drops of a year ago. That demographic is exactly who McDonald’s is trying to win back with its under-$3 menu.
On valuation, McDonald’s trades at 16.18x NTM EV/EBITDA (enterprise value divided by EBITDA, a common measure of operating profitability). Per TIKR competitor data, which sits below Yum! Brands at 17.30x and above, Restaurant Brands International at 13.23x. The premium over RBI is reasonable given McDonald’s scale and franchise margin profile, but sustaining it requires the beverage platform and EDAP menu to carry momentum through a Q2 that management has already guided will decelerate, due to lapping the Minecraft movie promotion from a year ago.
See how McDonald’s performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $284.10
- Target Price (Mid): ~$429
- Potential Total Return: ~51%
- Annualized IRR: ~9% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for McDonald’s stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid-case uses $284.10 as the entry point and forecasts ~$429 by 12/31/30. The two primary revenue CAGR drivers are global unit growth, with management targeting approximately 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, and the expanding beverage and digital channel, which lifts per-visit revenue without requiring significant new capital. The margin driver is franchise mix: as company-operated stores shift to franchisees, the royalty-based revenue stream that follows carries structurally higher profit margins.
The net income margin in the mid-case expands to approximately 35%, up from 32.6% over the trailing twelve months. The primary risk is sustained pressure on low-income consumers, particularly if beef inflation extends into 2027, as Borden flagged as a possibility.
Of 38 analysts covering MCD, the breakdown is 15 Buys, 4 Outperforms, 16 Holds, 1 Underperform, 1 Sell, and 1 No Opinion, for a mean target of ~$345. That is about 21% upside from the current price, versus the TIKR model’s ~51% through 2030. The gap is mostly in the time horizon: Street targets are typically 12-month, while the TIKR model runs to December 2030.
Conclusion
The metric to watch at McDonald’s September 23 Investor Day in Chicago is U.S. company-operated restaurant margin. A concrete refranchising plan or a margin recovery target would directly strengthen the bull case and improve free cash flow quality.
McDonald’s delivered the quarter investors needed: an EPS and revenue beat, broad-based market share gains across nearly every major market, and a new beverage platform that gives the business a long-cycle growth driver at the exact moment its value economics are under the most scrutiny.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in McDonald’s?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up McDonald’s, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track McDonald’s alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze McDonald’s on TIKR Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
