Key Stats
- Current Price: $82 (May 6, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $15.3B, +12% YoY
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS: $0.97, +20.8% YoY
- Q1 2026 EBITDA: $5.4B, +5.3% YoY
- EBITDA Margin: ~36%, roughly flat YoY
- 2026 EBITDA Outlook: 4% to 8% growth (reaffirmed)
- TIKR Model Price Target: $111
- Implied Upside: ~56% from current price
What Happened?
Anheuser-Busch InBev stock (BUD) posted Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $0.97, up 20.8% year over year and the highest first-quarter EPS in company history.
Revenue reached $15.3B, a 12% increase from $13.6B in Q1 2025, driven by disciplined revenue management and positive portfolio mix from premiumization and Beyond Beer.
Beer volumes grew 1.2%, with Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, South Africa, and Peru each reaching record first-quarter volume levels.
The mega brand portfolio was the primary growth driver, with combined net revenue up 8.2% and Corona delivering 16% revenue growth outside of Mexico.
According to CEO Michel Doukeris on the Q1 2026 earnings call, non-alcohol beer revenue grew 27%, led by Corona Cero globally and Michelob ULTRA Zero in the U.S., with an estimated 60% of volume coming from new occasions and new consumers.
In the U.S., Anheuser-Busch InBev stock investors saw a positive STR volume quarter, with the company claiming the number one share gainer position in total alcohol, spanning both beer and spirits.
Beyond Beer delivered revenue growth in the high 60s percentage range in the U.S., with Cutwater growing revenue triple digits and ranking as the number one share-gaining brand in total spirits for Q1 2026.
EBITDA reached $5.4B, up 5.3% year over year, with EBITDA margin holding at approximately 36%, essentially flat, as transactional FX headwinds were offset by cost management and incremental sales and marketing investment.
According to CFO Fernando Tennenbaum on the Q1 2026 earnings call, the company carries no bonds maturing in 2026, a weighted average debt maturity of 13 years, and recently received a credit rating upgrade from Moody’s to A2 from A3.
Management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 EBITDA growth outlook of 4% to 8%, with Tennenbaum noting that cost pressures are expected to ease in the second half while sales and marketing investment steps up around the FIFA World Cup in June and July.
Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock Financials
The Q1 2026 income statement shows a company executing a meaningful recovery in revenue growth while holding operating margins steady after a period of YoY compression.
Revenue troughed at $13.6B in Q1 2025, contracting 6.3% year over year, before rebounding sequentially through the middle of 2025 and accelerating sharply to $15.3B in Q1 2026, the 12% YoY gain now representing the strongest comparable growth rate across the eight quarters visible in the income statement.
Gross margin reached 56.6% in Q1 2026, up from 55.7% in Q1 2025 and above the prior four-quarter range of 55.4% to 56.4%, indicating that revenue management and favorable mix from premiumization are flowing through to the gross line.
Operating income was $4.1B in Q1 2026, up 13.5% from $3.6B in Q1 2025, recovering from a trough that saw operating income compress to $3.6B with a 26.3% operating margin in Q1 2025.
Operating margin reached 26.7% in Q1 2026, back in line with Q2 2025 and Q3 2025 levels after the Q1 2025 dip, suggesting the margin structure is stable rather than expanding.
According to Tennenbaum on the Q1 2026 earnings call, cost of goods sold headwinds are weighted toward the first half, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, and the company took proactive revenue and cost management steps entering the year to smooth the H1 versus H2 comparison.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model prices Anheuser-Busch InBev stock at $111, representing approximately 56% upside from the current price of $71, with an annualized return of ~10% over a near 5-year model horizon.
The mid-case model assumes a revenue CAGR of around 5% through 2035 and a net income margin of 15%, a meaningful step up from the 1~2% net income margin the business recorded over the past year.
The Q1 2026 report strengthens the investment case at the margin: revenue growth of 12% running ahead of the 5% CAGR assumption, a record EPS quarter, and a margin structure holding at target levels all reduce near-term execution risk embedded in the model.
The question for BUD stock is not whether the business is improving; it clearly is. The question is whether the current price at $71 reflects a sufficient discount to intrinsic value to reward patient shareholders while FIFA tailwinds, China recovery work, and Beyond Beer scaling play out over the next several years.
Anheuser-Busch InBev stock has delivered two years of consistent compounding, but the path from $71 to the $111 model target requires sustained margin expansion and a premium portfolio mix shift that has not yet fully materialized.
What Has to Go Right
- Revenue CAGR of 4.6% requires sustained premiumization momentum, where mega brands already delivered 8.2% net revenue growth in Q1 2026 and premium and super premium grew volumes by low 20s in Brazil and mid-20s in South Africa
- Net income margin expansion from 11.8% (trailing) to 15% (model mid-case) depends on operating leverage from Beyond Beer scaling, where Cutwater grew triple digits and beyond beer absolute dollar margins are reportedly 20% to 30% higher than premium beer, according to Doukeris on the Q1 2026 call
- The FIFA World Cup in June and July represents a historical volume catalyst of 20 to 30 basis points annually, concentrated in Q2 and Q3, which could accelerate the top-line trajectory and support marketing investment ROI
- BEES Marketplace GMV from third-party products reached $1.1B in Q1 2026, growing 55% year over year, creating a monetization layer on top of the core brewing business that the current model does not fully price in
What Could Still Go Wrong
- China volumes fell 1.5% in Q1 2026, with Doukeris acknowledging the company still has work to do to expand in-home channel presence and grow participation in the country’s fastest-growing segments, a drag on the APAC growth assumption
- Transactional FX headwinds were a meaningful offset in Q1, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, and if local currency weakness accelerates alongside potential tariff-driven inflation, H2 cost relief may not materialize as planned
- The 15% net income margin model assumption implies a structural jump from recent history; the trailing 12-month margin sits at 11.8%, and the 10-year average was 19.5% before years of below-target performance, making the timing of normalization uncertain
- U.S. consumer sentiment softening in the back half of 2026 could pressure beer category volumes; Doukeris noted on the call that energy costs and inflation typically take three to six months to flow through to consumer behavior, with compounding effects possible by year-end
Should You Invest in Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV?
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