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Meta-Aktie stieg um 3 % nach dem Start von Muse Wonder. Das muss der 21. Oktober zeigen

Wiltone Asuncion • 5 Minuten gelesen
Rezensiert von: David Hanson
Zuletzt aktualisiert Oct 13, 2026

@Expect Best from Pexels via Canva, @Omar_Nasif from pixabay via Canva

Wichtige Kennzahlen für die Meta-Aktie

  • Aktueller Kurs: $742.96
  • Zielkurs (Mitte): ~$1.206
  • Konsensziel der Analysten: ~$800
  • Potenzielle Gesamtrendite: ~62%
  • Annualisierte IRR: ~12% / Jahr

Jetzt live: Entdecken Sie, wie viel Potenzial Ihre Lieblingsaktien mit TIKRs neuem Bewertungsmodell haben könnten (Es ist kostenlos) >>>

Was ist passiert?

Meta Platforms (META) schloss am 12. Oktober mit einem Plus von 3,38% bei $742,96, nachdem das Unternehmen Muse Wonder und Muse Wonder Full vorgestellt hatte, Modelle, die das Unternehmen als seine bislang leistungsfähigsten bezeichnete, berichtete Reuters. Der Gewinn kam an einem Tag, an dem der Nasdaq fiel. Nach Börsenschluss am 12. Oktober gab Meta bekannt, dass es die Ergebnisse für das dritte Quartal am 21. Oktober veröffentlichen wird, wobei die Veröffentlichung und die Telefonkonferenz in seinen Investor-Relations-Materialien zu finden sein werden. Der Anstieg von 31,9% seit dem 30. Juni basiert auf einer höheren Bewertung und nicht auf höheren Gewinnschätzungen, was dem Bericht wenig Spielraum für Enttäuschungen lässt.

Anleger zahlen mehr für die gleichen erwarteten Gewinne

TIKR-Daten zeigen, dass das Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) von Meta auf Basis der normalisierten Gewinne der nächsten zwölf Monate von 17,16x am 30. Juni auf 23,10x am 12. Oktober gestiegen ist. Im gleichen Zeitraum sank der normalisierte Gewinn pro Aktie (EPS) für die nächsten zwölf Monate von $32,82 auf $32,17. Die Aktie schloss 4,45% unter ihrem höchsten Schlusskurs des vergangenen Jahres.

Der durchschnittliche Konsenszielkurs der Analysten ist dem Kurs nicht gefolgt. Er fiel von etwa $827 am 30. Juni auf etwa $799, etwa 7,5% über dem Schlusskurs vom 12. Oktober. Auch die Bewertungen sind etwas weicher: 47 Kaufempfehlungen, 8 Outperform-Empfehlungen, 7 Halteempfehlungen und 1 Verkaufempfehlung, gegenüber 49 Kaufempfehlungen und keinen Verkaufempfehlungen am 30. Juni. Bei 23,10x KGV liegt Meta zwischen Alphabet (GOOGL) bei 25,16x und Reddit (RDDT) bei 18,71x.

Die Akzeptanz von Muse ist die Grundlage, auf der das KGV beruht, und sie wird angefochten. Am 9. Oktober gab Hunterbrook Capital eine Short-Position bekannt, begleitet von einem Bericht von Hunterbrook Media, der auf Daten Dritter basierend einen wöchentlichen Rückgang der Muse-Downloads um 8,1% zeigte. Auch die Wall Street Journal berichtete, dass die weltweiten Muse-Downloads sich verlangsamt haben.

Meta KGV auf Basis der normalisierten Gewinne der nächsten zwölf Monate (TIKR)

Sehen Sie historische und zukünftige Schätzungen für die Meta-Aktie (Es ist kostenlos!) >>>

Am 21. Oktober muss sich zeigen, dass die kostenpflichtigen Produkte an Fahrt gewinnen

Der Umsatz ist der einfachere Test. Analysten erwarten für das dritte Quartal etwa $63,4 Milliarden, über der Mitte der Prognose von Meta von $61 bis $64 Milliarden. Der Gewinn ist schwieriger. Die Analysten erwarten, dass das EBIT im dritten Quartal um etwa 7% fällt, nachdem das EBIT im zweiten Quartal um 8,15% gesunken war. Finanzvorstand Susan Li sagte, dass der Betriebsgewinn ohne $2,4 Milliarden an Rechtskosten und $1,2 Milliarden an Abfindungen um 9% gestiegen wäre.

Die Kennzahl, die für den Kursanstieg ausschlaggebend ist, liegt außerhalb der Werbung. Sonstige Erträge der Family of Apps erreichten im zweiten Quartal $1 Milliarde, ein Plus von 73%, hauptsächlich getrieben durch kostenpflichtige WhatsApp-Nachrichten und Abonnements. Das dritte Quartal umfasst nur etwa drei Wochen von Muse, das am 8. September gestartet wurde, und Muse Wonder kam nach Quartalsende auf den Markt, daher sind die Prognosen wichtiger als die ausgewiesene Position. Der Zugang zu Muse Wonder erfordert einen kostenpflichtigen Monatsplan, berichtete CNBC. CEO Mark Zuckerberg sagte Analysten am 29. Juli, dass Meta glaubt, "dass die Marge beim Verkauf von Intelligenz weiterhin deutlich höher sein wird als beim direkten Verkauf von Rechenleistung".

Die Kosten sind ebenso sichtbar. Im selben Gespräch sagte Li, dass Metas Pläne "darauf ausgelegt sind, die Kapazitäten für 2026 und 2027 zu maximieren" und gab keine Kapitalausgabenzahl für 2027 an. Die Schätzungen der Analysten enthalten bereits etwa $193 Milliarden an Kapitalausgaben für 2027 und einen negativen freien Cashflow sowohl 2026 als auch 2027. Auch das rechtliche Risiko ist offen. Li warnte, dass Gerichtsverfahren im Zusammenhang mit Jugendlichen "letztendlich zu einem erheblichen Verlust führen könnten". Unabhängig davon prüft ein Richter einen Antrag New Mexicos auf Strafzahlungen in Höhe von $35 bis $40 Milliarden nach einem Geschworenenurteil vom 25. September, wobei ein Urteil innerhalb von Wochen nach der Anhörung am 1. Oktober erwartet wird, berichtete Bloomberg Law. Metas Anwälte nannten den Antrag verfassungswidrig.

Meta Freier Cashflow & Kapitalausgaben (TIKR)

Sehen Sie, wie Meta im Vergleich zu seinen Mitbewerbern bei TIKR abschneidet (Es ist kostenlos!) >>>

TIKR Advanced Model Analyse

  • Aktueller Kurs: $742.96
  • Zielkurs (Mitte): ~$1.206
  • Potenzielle Gesamtrendite: ~62%
  • Annualisierte IRR: ~12% / Jahr
Meta Advanced Bewertungsmodell (TIKR)

Sehen Sie Wachstumsprognosen und Kursziele der Analysten für die Meta-Aktie (Es ist kostenlos!) >>>

Das mittlere Szenario des TIKR-Modells setzt Meta bis zum 31. Dezember 2030 auf etwa $1.206, etwa 62% über dem Schlusskurs von $742,96. Zum Vergleich: Die Schätzungen der Analysten zeigen einen Umsatzanstieg von $200,966 Milliarden im Jahr 2025 auf etwa $472 Milliarden im Jahr 2030. Die normalisierte Nettomarge lag 2025 bei 38,0% und wird für 2026 auf etwa 31% und bis 2030 auf etwa 30% erwartet, während Abschreibungen und Amortisationen von $18,616 Milliarden auf etwa $102 Milliarden steigen. Das Hauptrisiko besteht darin, dass die Kapitalausgaben diesen Umsatzpfad übersteigen. Das niedrigste Analystenziel von $580 markiert die vorsichtigste Ansicht.

Fazit

Die klarsten Signale sind die Prognosen von Meta für das vierte Quartal, jede frühe Einschätzung der Kapitalausgaben für 2027 und ob die sonstigen Erträge ihr Wachstumstempo von 73% halten. Kommentare zu Kapitalausgaben in der Nähe der bereits in den Schätzungen enthaltenen etwa $193 Milliarden, gepaart mit wachsenden kostenpflichtigen Produkten, stützen ein KGV von 23x. Ein Ausblick auf Kapitalausgaben deutlich darüber, gepaart mit einer Verlangsamung der sonstigen Erträge, würde eine neu bewertete Aktie ohne die entsprechenden Gewinne zurücklassen.

Sehen Sie, welche Aktien Milliardäre kaufen, damit Sie den Smart Money mit TIKR folgen können.

Was ist die Meta-Aktie also wirklich wert?

Mit TIKR können Sie den zukünftigen Kurs jeder Aktie in weniger als einer Minute prognostizieren. Geben Sie einfach ein paar Annahmen in TIKRs Bewertungsmodell ein und sehen Sie, was Meta wert sein könnte. Beginnen Sie mit den Konsensschätzungen von Wall Street, oder passen Sie die Eingaben an, um Ihre eigene Sicht auf das Geschäft widerzuspiegeln. Die Nutzung ist kostenlos.

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Haftungsausschluss:

Bitte beachten Sie, dass die Artikel auf TIKR nicht als Anlage- oder Finanzberatung von TIKR oder unserem Content-Team gedacht sind, noch stellen sie Empfehlungen zum Kauf oder Verkauf von Aktien dar. Wir erstellen unsere Inhalte auf Basis der Anlagedaten des TIKR Terminals und der Schätzungen von Analysten. Unsere Analyse umfasst möglicherweise keine aktuellen Unternehmensnachrichten oder wichtige Updates. TIKR hält keine Positionen in den genannten Aktien. Vielen Dank fürs Lesen und frohes Investieren!

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Wiltone Asuncion • Oct 12, 2026
Aktienbewertungen
5 Minuten gelesen

ServiceNow-Aktie stieg seit dem 30. Juni um 42 %, während die erwarteten Gewinne um 4 % stiegen. So könnte es bis 2030 weitergehen

Die zukunftsorientierten Erträge von ServiceNow sind seit dem 30. Juni um etwa 4 % gestiegen, während die Aktie um 42 % zulegte. CEO Bill McDermott sagt, dass KI jeden Nutzerplatz wertvoller macht, und Flow, das am 1. Oktober eingeführt wurde, ist ein Test dafür. Der Bericht vom 28. Oktober beginnt mit den Umsätzen, die bereits im Juni erzielt wurden.
Wiltone Asuncion • Oct 12, 2026

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