Key Takeaways:
- FWON.K stock currently trades near $93, with a 52-week range of $80 to $109. Q1 2026 revenue surged 53% year over year to $617M, and operating income turned positive at $107M.
- Formula One extended broadcast deals with Sky in the UK and Italy for five years. The valuation model projects FWON.K stock could reach around $113 per share by December 2028.
- That implies a 20.6% total return and a 7.3% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
What Happened?
Formula One Group (FWONK) reported a strong Q1 2026. Revenue surged 53% year over year to $617M. Operating income turned positive, reaching $107M. That improvement reflects the strength of Formula One’s media rights and commercial partnerships, and investors reacted positively.
The group also secured important long-term deals. Formula One extended its broadcast agreements with Sky across the UK and Italy for five years. FanDuel was named the official US and Canada betting partner in a multi-year deal. And Marsh became an official risk and insurance brokering partner, adding commercial depth to the portfolio.
However, Liberty Media noted that fewer F1 races in 2026 will weigh on revenue for the full year. Race count changes can create meaningful short-term swings in Formula One’s financial results.
But management emphasized that long-term commercial momentum remains solid. Turkey’s Istanbul Park also confirmed a return to the F1 calendar starting from 2027, adding a new venue and revenue opportunity.
The stock trades at $93, inside its 52-week range of $80 to $109. Analysts’ consensus target sits near $114, suggesting some near-term upside potential. Investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic given the race count headwind.
Here’s why Formula One Group stock could still deliver returns through 2028 as media and commercial deals continue to expand across global markets.
What the Model Says for FWONK Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Formula One Group stock based on its media rights renewal cycle, expanding commercial partnership base, and growing global fan engagement through broadcast and digital platforms.
Based on estimates of 7.8% annual revenue growth, 16% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 51.9x, the model projects Formula One Group stock could rise from $93 to around $113 per share.
That would be a 20.6% total return, or a 7.3% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for FWONK stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 7.8%
Formula One reported 22.7% revenue growth over the last 12 months, partly driven by the timing of broadcast contract cycles and event count. The 5-year revenue CAGR has been 31.4%, reflecting strong growth across media rights and sponsorship. But fewer races in 2026 will moderate near-term reported revenue growth.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 7.8% annual revenue growth. This reflects a more normalized pace of media rights and sponsorship expansion going forward. It also accounts for event calendar variability and the timing of new race venue additions, like Turkey from 2027.
2. Operating Margins: 16%
Formula One’s LTM EBIT margin stands at 13.5%. The business carries $4.1B in net debt and a Net Debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.83x. Margins have been recovering as commercial operations scale, but the cost structure of running a global racing series limits rapid expansion.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 16% operating margins. This reflects gradual improvement from the current EBIT margin level. New sponsorship deals and rising broadcast revenue support this expansion, but ongoing investment in race infrastructure and digital platforms creates a ceiling for near-term margin growth.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 51.9x
Formula One stock currently trades at a forward P/E of around 54x. That premium reflects the unique and irreplaceable nature of the Formula One franchise. And there are no direct substitutes for the global motorsport commercial rights package that Formula One controls.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 51.9x as the exit P/E multiple. This is close to the current trading multiple and reflects Formula One’s durable competitive position. Strong global viewership trends and premium sponsorship demand support maintaining this elevated valuation level.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for FWON.K stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on media rights growth and commercial deal execution (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Race count stays limited, and sponsorship growth disappoints → around 6% annual returns
- Mid Case: New broadcast deals renew at higher rates and fan engagement monetizes steadily → around 10% annual returns
- High Case: Global viewership accelerates, and major new market entries drive significant upside → around 13% annual returns
Going forward, Formula One Group benefits from a unique and durable franchise with growing global appeal. The near-term model shows moderate annualized returns at current valuations, but the longer-term picture improves meaningfully as media rights deals renew at higher rates.
Investors who believe in the sport’s global growth story may find the risk-reward reasonable, especially because the stock currently sits below analyst consensus price targets.
See what analysts think about FWONK stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Formula One Group?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up FWONK, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track FWONK alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
