Key Stats
- Current Price: $92 (May 7, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS: $1.51, up from $1.44 in Q1 2025
- Q1 2026 GAAP EPS: $1.58, up from $1.39 in Q1 2025
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $3.66B, down 4% year over year from $3.80B
- Q1 2026 Net Income (Adjusted): $991M, up from $942M in Q1 2025
- Full-Year 2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $4.80 to $5.30
- Full-Year 2027 Adjusted EPS Guidance: $5.10 to $5.70
- Long-Term EPS Growth Target: 7% to 9% annually
- TIKR Model Price Target: $145
- Implied Upside: ~58%
Sempra Q1 2026 Earnings Breakdown
Sempra stock (SRE) delivered adjusted Q1 2026 EPS of $1.51, up from $1.44 in the prior-year quarter, on revenue of $3.66B.
GAAP earnings came in at $1.37B, or $1.58 per diluted share, compared to $906M, or $1.39 per share, in Q1 2025, according to Karen Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The strongest segment contribution came from Sempra California, which added $44M of higher earnings driven by increased CPUC base operating margin, net of operating expenses, according to Sedgwick on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Sempra Texas contributed $25M of higher equity earnings from the UTM mechanism, higher invested capital, and customer growth, partially offset by higher interest expense, depreciation, and O&M, according to Sedgwick on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Sempra Infrastructure added $34M of higher earnings, primarily from lower depreciation due to its classification as held for sale, according to Sedgwick on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Sedgwick noted that the positive financial impact of Oncor’s base rate review will be “primarily recognized in the second quarter given the PUCT order wasn’t issued until April,” meaning Q1 results do not yet reflect the improved rate structure.
Management affirmed full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80 to $5.30 and 2027 EPS guidance of $5.10 to $5.70, alongside a projected long-term EPS growth rate of 7% to 9%, according to Sedgwick on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Oncor’s recently approved base rate case raised the authorized equity layer to 43.5%, the authorized return on equity to 9.75%, and the authorized cost of debt to 4.94%, according to Jeff Martin, Chairman and CEO, on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Oncor also submitted its inaugural UTM filing in April, covering $4.4 billion of T&D assets placed into service since January 1, 2025, with a final order and updated rates expected in the second half of 2026, according to Martin on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Capital deployment of $3B in Q1 keeps Sempra on track toward its $65B capital plan target for the year, according to Martin on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Sempra Stock Financials: Operating Leverage Building
Sempra stock’s income statement shows operating margin expanding sharply even as revenue declined year over year, a profile consistent with improving rate structures and lower cost loads.
Revenue came in at $3.66B in Q1 2026, down from $3.80B in Q1 2025 and roughly in line with $3.75B in Q4 2025.
The revenue trend over the past eight quarters has been uneven: from $3.01B in Q2 2024, it peaked at $3.80B in Q1 2025, then dipped to $3.00B and $3.15B through mid-2025 before recovering to $3.75B in Q4 2025 and settling at $3.66B in Q1 2026.
Operating income reached $1.09B in Q1 2026, up 11% year over year from $980M in Q1 2025.
Operating margin expanded to 30% in Q1 2026, compared to 26% in Q1 2025, a roughly 4-percentage-point improvement.
That operating margin stands well above the trough reached in Q2 and Q3 2024, when the figure fell to 18% and 16%, respectively, underscoring a recovery arc tied to the growing contribution of regulated utility earnings.
Total operating expenses declined from $2.82B in Q1 2025 to $2.57B in Q1 2026, led by lower fuel and purchased power costs of $420M versus $550M in the prior-year quarter.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model places a price target of $145 on Sempra stock, implying approximately 58% upside from the current price of $92, with an annualized return of 10% over the next ~5 years.
The mid-case scenario assumes a revenue of around CAGR of 5% and a net income margin of 29%, reflecting a business shifting its weight toward regulated utility cash flows at improving authorized return levels.
This Q1 report reinforces the model’s core premise: Oncor’s rate base is growing, the rate case approval increases authorized ROE to 9.75%, and the UTM mechanism reduces regulatory lag going forward.
At roughly $92, Sempra stock trades at a meaningful discount to a model target anchored by near-certain regulatory cash flows, a $65B capital plan, and a management team that has consistently hit its operational milestones.
The investment case for Sempra stock is stronger after this quarter, not because results were spectacular, but because the regulatory and capital allocation pieces that underpin the long-term model are falling into place.
Sempra stock’s earnings story hinges on whether Oncor’s rate base growth and improving ROE materializes fast enough to close the gap between where regulated earnings are today and where the $65B capital plan says they will be by 2030.
Thesis Intact
- Oncor’s PUCT-approved base rate case raises authorized ROE to 9.75% with a 43.5% equity layer, directly improving the earned-versus-authorized ROE gap that had weighed on earnings for 18 months
- The inaugural UTM filing covering $4.4B of T&D assets in service since January 2025 creates a recurring annual mechanism to reduce regulatory lag, with a final order and rates expected in the second half of 2026
- Oncor submitted 127 gigawatts of substantiated large load to the 2026 regional transmission plan, representing a growth backlog that, if even partially realized, adds meaningfully to incremental CapEx beyond the base $47.5B Oncor capital plan
- Q1 capital deployment of $3B keeps Sempra on track toward its $65B plan, with Q2 set to include the full benefit of the Oncor rate case now excluded from Q1 results
Thesis at Risk
- The SI Partners transaction closing, expected in Q2 or Q3 2026, remains incomplete; rating agency threshold improvements are contingent on the close and subsequent construction milestones, extending credit risk into late 2026 or early 2027
- Revenue declined 4% year over year in Q1 2026, and the past eight quarters show significant seasonal and structural volatility ranging from $2.78B to $3.80B, which complicates near-term earnings visibility
- California wildfire liability reform remains unresolved; SB 254 is in active legislative discussions but not yet law, leaving SDG&E exposed to the current framework through at least the remainder of 2025
- The ECA LNG Phase 1 first LNG production targeted for June 2026 and Port Arthur LNG progress are dependencies for Sempra Infrastructure’s valuation in the KKR transaction; slippage on either project could delay close economics
Should You Invest in Sempra?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Sempra stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Sempra alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze SRE stock on TIKR for Free →
