Key Takeaways:
- EXC stock trades near $44, with a 52-week range of $42 to $51. Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $0.91, and revenue rose to $7.24B for the quarter.
- Exelon raised its capital spending plan following higher-than-expected data center load growth across its service territories.
- EXC stock could reach around $55 per share by December 2028.
- That implies a 24.1% total return and an 8.5% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
What Happened?
Exelon Corporation (EXC) reported Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.91, and revenue rose to $7.24B for the quarter. The company topped analyst expectations on its headline results. But the near-term investor story has been mixed, with regulatory concerns weighing on sentiment.
Exelon is the largest US electric utility by customer count. It operates regulated electricity and gas utilities across six states, including ComEd in Illinois, PECO in Pennsylvania, BGE in Maryland, and Pepco, Delmarva Power, and Atlantic City Electric in the Mid-Atlantic region.
Regulated utilities earn returns set by state regulators, so revenue is largely predictable, but growth is slower. ComEd expects Illinois load to increase by 19 gigawatts by 2030, driven largely by data center expansion.
However, regulatory news has been a headwind. PECO withdrew its electric and gas rate cases in Pennsylvania, creating uncertainty around near-term cost recovery. Several analysts downgraded the stock, citing these regulatory concerns.
But Exelon also received a positive development, as FERC extended the PJM capacity price collar through May 2030, which supports the long-term revenue outlook.
The stock trades at $44, near the lower end of its 52-week range of $42 to $51. Exelon pays a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, giving investors a dividend yield of around 3.8%. The company continues raising its capex budget to meet growing grid demand.
Here’s why Exelon stock could still deliver for income-focused investors through 2028, but regulatory outcomes remain a key variable to watch.
What the Model Says for EXC Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Exelon stock based on its regulated utility revenue growth, capital spending plans tied to grid modernization and data center load growth, and steady operating margin improvement across its electricity and gas distribution networks.
Based on estimates of 3.7% annual revenue growth, 23.5% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 15.3x, the model projects Exelon stock could rise from $44 to around $55 per share.
That would be a 24.1% total return, or an 8.5% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for EXC stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 3.7%
Exelon reported 5.3% revenue growth over the last 12 months, driven by higher rates and rising electricity demand. The forward 2-year revenue CAGR sits at 3.7%, which is typical for a regulated utility. But ComEd’s Illinois data center load growth outlook adds a meaningful demand driver beyond normal utility growth.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 3.7% annual revenue growth. This reflects the regulated nature of Exelon’s business and the typical pace of rate-case-driven revenue increases. PECO’s withdrawal of its Pennsylvania rate cases creates near-term uncertainty, so our estimate takes a conservative view on the pace of revenue recovery there.
2. Operating Margins: 23.5%
Exelon’s LTM EBIT margin stands at 20.8%, and gross margins sit at 42.6%. The utility business benefits from stable, contracted cash flows across its regulated network. But significant capital expenditures and a high leverage ratio (LTM Net Debt to EBITDA of 6.08x) limit how quickly margins can expand.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 23.5% operating margins. This reflects gradual improvement from the current operating level as rate-case resolutions allow for better cost recovery. New grid investments in Illinois and Maryland also support margin expansion over the coming years as capital is put into the rate base.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 15.3x
EXC currently trades at a forward P/E of around 15.3x, in line with typical utility sector multiples. Regulated utilities generally trade at lower multiples because their growth is slower and more predictable than the broader market. And the utility sector multiple has been broadly stable despite interest rate volatility.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 15.3x as the exit P/E multiple. This is consistent with how the regulated utility sector has historically been valued. A clean resolution of PECO’s regulatory situation and continued Illinois load growth could support a slight multiple expansion from this level.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for EXC stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on rate-case outcomes and data center load growth (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Rate cases face headwinds and load growth disappoints → around 5% annual returns
- Mid Case: Regulatory approvals progress and data center demand support steady grid investment → around 7% annual returns
- High Case: Illinois load surges and rate-case resolutions come in ahead of expectations → around 9% annual returns
Going forward, Exelon offers a combination of dividend income and moderate capital appreciation potential. The model suggests mid-single-digit to high-single-digit annualized returns, so the stock may appeal most to conservative, income-oriented investors rather than growth-focused ones.
Regulatory risk in Pennsylvania and the pace of capital cost recovery will remain the key variables to monitor closely through 2028 and beyond.
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Should You Invest in Exelon?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up EXC, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track EXC alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
