Key Stats
- Current Price: $64 (May 1, 2026)
- FY2025 Revenue: $16.51B (+14.2% YoY)
- FY2025 Operating Income: $5.43B (+18.6% YoY)
- Q1 2026 Operating EPS: $0.95 per share
- Q1 2026 GAAP EPS: $0.69 per share
- FY2026 EPS Growth Guidance: 5% to 7% annual operating earnings growth (midpoint), with bias toward upper half starting 2028
- TIKR Model Price Target: $92
- Implied Upside: ~44%
Dominion Energy Stock Posts $0.95 Q1 EPS as CVOW Reaches 75% Completion
Dominion Energy stock (D) reported Q1 2026 operating earnings of $0.95 per share, with GAAP EPS of $0.69 per share, as the company affirmed its full-year guidance of 5% to 7% annual operating earnings growth at the midpoint.
Management reaffirmed all financial commitments issued on the Q4 call, including operating earnings, credit, dividend, and long-term growth guidance, with a stated bias toward the upper half of the 5% to 7% range beginning in 2028, according to CFO Steven Ridge on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind project is now over 75% complete, with first power delivered to customers in March, representing a major project milestone that was aligned with the original timeline, according to CEO Robert Blue on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Turbine installation cadence has accelerated materially, with the last four turbines averaging approximately 2 days per installation, supporting the existing timeline for project completion with the majority of turbines expected in service by year-end 2026 and the remainder by June 2027, according to Blue on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The CVOW project budget now stands at $11.4B, approximately $100M lower than the prior update, with unused contingency of $123M, according to Blue on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
The company issued approximately $1.2B of common equity year-to-date under the ATM program, with $400M to $600M remaining for the rest of the year, consistent with Q4 call guidance, according to Ridge on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Virginia legislation signed into law now requires Dominion Energy to petition for 20 gigawatts of grid-scale storage by 2045, up from 3 gigawatts by 2035, with the company’s existing $65B five-year capital plan already including approximately $2B for battery storage subject to regulatory approval, according to Ridge on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Dominion Energy stock has over 50 gigawatts of data center capacity in various stages of contracting, including approximately 10.4 gigawatts under electric service agreements, with management citing accelerating and durable demand from its service territory, according to Blue on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Dominion Energy Stock Financials: Sustained Operating Leverage
The income statement shows a clear multi-year operating leverage story: revenue and operating income have both expanded consistently since 2022, with margin recovery accelerating into 2025.
Total revenues grew from $13.94B in FY2022 to $16.51B in FY2025, a 14.2% increase in the most recent year after near-flat growth of 0.5% in FY2024 and 3.3% in FY2023.
The revenue acceleration in FY2025 is directly tied to the growing rate base investment cycle, with management citing regulated capital deployment across generation, transmission, and distribution as the primary driver.
Operating income expanded from $2.84B in FY2022 to $5.43B in FY2025, representing an 18.6% YoY gain in FY2025 and a near-doubling from the FY2022 trough.
Operating margin reached 32.9% in FY2025, up from 31.6% in FY2024, 28.4% in FY2023, and 20.3% in FY2022, a sustained four-year expansion that reflects both pricing power in regulated markets and cost discipline.
Ridge confirmed on the Q1 2026 earnings call that full-year 2025 and Q1 LTM FFO-to-debt metrics are both above 15%, consistent with the company’s credit targets and supportive of the ongoing capital build.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR model prices Dominion Energy stock at $91.69 per share against a current price of $63.94, implying approximately 44% upside.
The model assumes a revenue CAGR of 6.7% (mid case) through 2035 and a net income margin of 20.3%, consistent with the current operating leverage trajectory.
The Q1 2026 result, particularly the affirmed guidance and CVOW milestone delivery, removes two of the most visible near-term execution risks that had weighed on Dominion Energy stock’s risk/reward profile.
The investment case for Dominion Energy stock is incrementally stronger following this report: guidance was affirmed, the offshore wind project is on schedule and under prior budget, the balance sheet is above target metrics, and the data center pipeline continues to expand.
The real question this report raises is whether CVOW completes on time and within budget through late 2026 and early 2027, which determines whether the 5-to-7% growth guidance becomes a floor or a ceiling.
What Has to Go Right
- CVOW turbine installation maintains the 2-day-per-turbine cadence through the favorable weather window; majority of 176 turbines placed in service by December 2026 as guided
- Steel and aluminum tariff impact (estimated at ~$200M) is fully offset by PJM transmission cost reallocation, keeping the $11.4B budget intact or lower
- Millstone recontracting succeeds through Connecticut’s DEEP RFP process, with contracts submitted to PURA in Q3 2026 and approved in 2027, adding incremental revenue beyond the current PPA expiring August 2029
- Virginia battery storage legislation drives upward revision to the $65B capital plan at the Q4 2026 update, with management flagging acceleration toward 20 gigawatts by 2045
What Could Still Go Wrong
- CVOW extends beyond July 2027, triggering $150M to $200M per additional quarter in cost overrun, a portion allocated to the financing partner but still dilutive to the base case
- Data center contracting momentum stalls if PJM capacity pricing or cost allocation mechanisms shift unfavorably, slowing the load growth thesis that underpins the upper half of the 5% to 7% growth range from 2028 onward
- Millstone recontracting encounters regulatory resistance in Connecticut, reducing the nuclear hedge value and deferring any incremental data center contracting upside at the facility
- ATM equity issuance of $1.2B year-to-date, with $400M to $600M remaining, adds dilution pressure at current price levels if the stock does not re-rate toward the TIKR model target of $91.69
Should You Invest in Dominion Energy, Inc.?
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