Key Stats
- Current Price: ~$148 (May 9, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $1.5B, up ~20% from Q1 2025
- Q1 2026 Revenue: $5.6B, up ~43% YoY
- Q1 2026 Operating Income: $1.5B vs. ($120M) in Q1 2025
- Q1 2026 EBIT Margin: 27% vs. (3%) in Q1 2025
- 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Reaffirmed (range introduced on Q3 2025 call)
- 2027 Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity Range: Maintained
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$190
- Implied Upside: ~29%
Vistra Stock Posts Record Q1 on Generation Strength
Vistra Corp. (VST) posted $1.5B in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, a record result for a calendar first quarter and a 20% increase over Q1 2025, according to President and CEO Jim Burke on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Revenue came in at $5.6B for the quarter, up 43% year over year from $3.9B in Q1 2025 and above the prior sequential quarter of $4.6B in Q4 2025.
The Generation segment drove the headline result, delivering $1.4B in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, benefiting from strong realized revenue across the fleet, higher capacity revenues in PJM, and contributions from the Lotus assets acquired in late 2025, according to CFO Kris Moldovan.
Retail contributed $68M in adjusted EBITDA, with management noting that an extremely mild ERCOT winter, the second warmest first quarter since 1950, weighed on results, and that a year-over-year decline in Q1 retail was expected.
Despite the weather headwind, Vistra’s integrated model provided an offset: while Retail bore the weather impact, Generation benefited from opportunistic commercial optimization, backing down assets during mild periods and purchasing low-cost power in the market.
The pending Cogentrix acquisition, a 5,500-megawatt natural gas generation portfolio announced in January 2026, and long-term power purchase agreements with Meta for approximately 2,600 megawatts at Vistra’s PJM nuclear sites are both excluded from current guidance.
Vistra also announced long-term power purchase agreements with Meta for approximately 2,600 megawatts of energy and capacity at its PJM nuclear sites, a deal that remains excluded from current 2026 and 2027 guidance ranges.
Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance ranges and maintained its 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range, with an update expected following the Cogentrix close in the second half of 2026.
On capital returns, Vistra deployed approximately $525M in share repurchases during the first four months of 2026, and combined with a Q1 dividend of approximately $75M, returned approximately $600M to shareholders year to date.
Since launching its repurchase program in November 2021, Vistra has retired approximately 169 million shares at an average cost of approximately $37 per share, with approximately $1.5B in repurchase authorization remaining.
Vistra Stock Financials: Margin Expansion Driven by Operating Leverage
Vistra stock’s income statement shows a pronounced operating leverage story: revenue growth has outpaced cost expansion over the past two quarters, producing a sharp margin recovery from a loss position in Q1 2025.
Revenue moved from $3.9B in Q1 2025 to $4.3B in Q2 2025, $5.0B in Q3 2025, $4.6B in Q4 2025, and $5.6B in Q1 2026, with the most recent quarter up 43% year over year.
Operating income swung from ($120M) in Q1 2025 to $590M in Q2 2025, $1.1B in Q3 2025, $610M in Q4 2025, and $1.5B in Q1 2026, a 1,349% year-over-year increase against a low base.
Operating margin moved from (3%) in Q1 2025 to 14% in Q2 2025, 21% in Q3 2025, 13% in Q4 2025, and 27% in Q1 2026, marking the highest operating margin across the trailing eight quarters shown in the income statement.
Management attributed the operational strength to the natural gas fleet performing at 97% commercial availability during Winter Storm Fern and the nuclear fleet running at 100%, with CFO Moldovan noting that Martin Lake Unit 1 returned from an extended outage late in Q1 and has been running well since.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices Vistra stock at a target of $190, implying approximately 29% upside from the current price of approximately $148.
The mid-case assumptions driving that target include a revenue CAGR of ~8% from 2025 through 2035 and a net income margin of 14%, against a historical one-year net income margin of 9%.
A record Q1 adjusted EBITDA result, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and two investment-grade rating upgrades all reduce the downside scenario risk embedded in this model, making the mid-case assumptions more credible than they appeared entering the year.
At roughly 29% to fair value with Cogentrix, the Meta PPA uplift, and ongoing nuclear contracting discussions all excluded from current guidance, the investment case for Vistra stock looks stronger after this report than before it.
Vistra stock’s Q1 result confirms execution. The question the market is now pricing is whether the post-2026 earnings step-up can materialize on schedule.
The report closes Q1 cleanly, but the magnitude of the 2027 and beyond earnings step-up still depends on contracted capacity that has not yet been announced and a macro load growth assumption that is playing out slower than many third-party forecasts expected.
Near-Term Case
- Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $1.5B, up 20% year over year, is a record for any calendar first quarter, giving management a meaningful buffer inside the reaffirmed 2026 guidance range.
- Vistra has approximately $3B of additional capital available through year-end 2027 after allocating for equity returns and growth investments, according to CFO Moldovan on the Q1 call.
- Share repurchases have retired approximately 169 million shares at an average cost of approximately $37, well below the current price, compressing share count and supporting per-share earnings power.
- The Cogentrix close in the second half of 2026 is expected to trigger a guidance update that adds 5,500 megawatts of natural gas capacity not yet reflected in any current estimate.
Long-Term Case
- Load growth in ERCOT of 5% to 6% annually through 2030 and 2% to 3% in PJM, the figures management has held consistent for two years, remains below most third-party projections and may be a conservative floor rather than a ceiling.
- Approximately 3.2 gigawatts of nuclear capacity at Beaver Valley and Comanche Peak remains available for long-term contracting, with customer engagement described as ongoing and at the same activity level as prior quarters.
- Colocation regulatory clarity, FERC’s December 2024 order mandating PJM support for colocation, could unlock additional long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers across both nuclear and gas sites.
- Nuclear production tax credit downside protection hedges the base case through 2027, giving Vistra stock a floor under earnings regardless of forward power price movement.
Should You Invest in Vistra Corp.?
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