Key Takeaways:
- Copart (CPRT) shares trade near $33, down nearly 46% from a 52-week high of $64
- The near-term model projects CPRT stock could rise from $33 to around $46 by mid-2028
- That implies a potential total return of around 36% and an annualized return of around 15% over 2.2 years
- Copart carries a net cash position exceeding $5 billion, and its operating margin stands at 37.7%
What Happened?
Copart (CPRT) operates the world’s largest online vehicle auction platform. The company processes salvage and used vehicles for insurance companies, dealers, and fleet operators, earning fees on each transaction.
Shares fell nearly 46% over the past year, dropping from a 52-week high of $64 to around $33. The decline reflects both earnings misses and softer vehicle volume trends across the insurance industry.
Q2 fiscal 2026 was a disappointing quarter. Copart reported earnings per share of $0.36, missing the analyst estimate of $0.39, per Reuters. Revenue also fell quarter over quarter, and net income dropped 9.5% from the prior year. Lower total loss vehicle volumes, driven by fewer insurance claims processed, were the primary cause of the miss.
Sentiment has not yet recovered. CEO Jeffrey Liaw disposed of shares worth around $870,000 in April 2026, per Reuters. Of 11 analysts covering CPRT, just 3 rate it a Buy, and 5 maintain a Hold. But the street’s average price target of $43 remains well above the current price, suggesting most analysts still see recovery potential.
Q3 fiscal 2026 results are expected around May 14, 2026, and could be the next meaningful catalyst. Here’s why Copart stock could offer a strong recovery setup through 2028 as vehicle volumes normalize and the platform’s wide competitive moat stays intact.
What the Model Says for CPRT Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Copart stock based on its dominant online vehicle auction platform, strong cash generation, and potential recovery in total loss vehicle volumes.
Based on estimates of 4.2% annual revenue growth, 36.4% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 20.9x, the model projects Copart stock could rise from $33 to around $46 per share.
That would be a 36.1% total return, or a 14.9% annualized return over the next 2.2 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CPRT stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 4.2%
Copart grew revenue 9.7% in fiscal year 2025, and the 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate is 16.1%. But analyst consensus projects a forward 2-year revenue growth rate of only around 1.9%, reflecting the current volume headwinds.
Near-term weakness has tempered growth expectations sharply. So the model uses 4.2% growth, reflecting a gradual volume recovery rather than a full return to historical rates.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 4.2% annual revenue growth. This reflects a moderate recovery in total loss vehicles processed through Copart’s platform over the next two fiscal years.
2. Operating Margins: 36.4%
Copart’s last-12-month operating margin sits at 37.7%, consistent with its long-term record of disciplined cost management. Gross margins of 47.3% reflect the fee-based auction model, which carries minimal variable cost per transaction.
Even during the recent revenue softness, Copart maintained its cost structure effectively. So the model assumes margins hold near current levels throughout the forecast period.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 36.4% operating margins. This is slightly below the current 37.7% level, accounting for modest reinvestment in platform capacity as volume recovers.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.9x
Copart’s forward price-to-earnings multiple stands at around 20.9x, which is well below its historical 25x to 30x range. The model locks in the current multiple as the exit assumption, so projected returns come from earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.
The 5-year average price-to-earnings multiple for CPRT is around 30.6x. The current discount reflects investor concern about near-term volume weakness and execution risk.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used a 20.9x exit P/E multiple. This is conservative relative to CPRT’s historical valuation and assumes no re-rating of the multiple through 2028.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for CPRT stock through 2034 show varied outcomes based on vehicle volume recovery and long-term margin sustainability (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Volume recovery stalls and growth stays near 5% annually → around 5% annual returns
- Mid Case: Volumes gradually recover, and margins hold near current levels → around 8% annual returns
- High Case: Volume recovery accelerates, and international expansion adds meaningful new revenue → around 11% annual returns
Going forward, Copart’s investment case depends on whether total loss vehicle volumes return to growth and whether management can sustain its exceptional operating margins.
The near-term model implies around 15% annualized returns over 2.2 years if fundamentals stabilize quickly. But the longer-term scenarios show more modest outcomes, so the timing and pace of any recovery matters a great deal.
See what analysts think about CPRT stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Copart?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CPRT, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track CPRT alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
