Key Stats for Fox Corporation Stock
- Current Price: $66.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$79
- Street Target: ~$72
- Potential Total Return: ~17%
- Annualized IRR: ~4% / year
- Earnings Reaction: ~+7% (May 11, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: 28.89% (February 25, 2026)
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What Happened?
Fox Corporation (FOXA) jumped roughly 7% on May 11 after delivering its best third fiscal quarter on record, prompting investors to ask whether the stock deserves a re-rating. Bulls are pointing to the FIFA Men’s World Cup starting in June and a midterm election advertising cycle building toward fall. Bears are watching a valuation model that prices in less than 1% annual revenue growth and a Street consensus barely above the current price. The question the market is sitting with is whether Fox’s live-content business is genuinely inflecting or benefiting from a favorable event calendar that resets after 2026.
Executive Chair and CEO Lachlan Murdoch set the tone on the May 11 call: Fox delivered “$4 billion of revenue and EBITDA growth of 11% to just over $950 million,” a record for the third fiscal quarter. Excluding last year’s Super Bowl broadcast from the comparison, advertising revenue would have grown in double digits, which strips away the calendar noise and shows what the underlying business is actually doing.
A Quarter the Street Didn’t See Coming
Wall Street had penciled in adjusted EPS of $0.97. Fox delivered $1.32, a 36% beat, per TIKR’s Beats and Misses data. EBITDA of $954 million came in nearly 29% above the $742 million consensus. Revenue of $3.99 billion topped estimates by roughly $187 million.
The headline revenue number looks like a decline because Fox broadcast Super Bowl LIX the same quarter a year ago, generating over $800 million in gross advertising revenue that has no equivalent this period. CFO Steve Tomsic addressed it directly: “Excluding the impact of the Super Bowl and other NFL post-season schedule changes, our total company advertising revenue would have grown double digits over the prior year quarter.”
Three things inside the quarter tell the real story.
FOX News hit its highest third-quarter advertising revenue ever. Murdoch disclosed the network added more than 200 new premium advertising clients in fiscal 2026, on top of 350 added in fiscal 2025, with national CPMs (cost per thousand ad impressions) rising over 45%. He also noted that Fox News pricing still sits meaningfully below the broadcast networks it competes against, framing the gap as unfinished upside rather than a ceiling.
Tubi, Fox’s free ad-supported streaming service, grew revenue 23% with total view time up 19%. More importantly, it reached breakeven or better for the third consecutive quarter. Digital investment for the full fiscal year is now tracking below last year’s $290 million spend, meaning Tubi’s growth is self-funding.
Fox One, the company’s direct-to-consumer streaming bundle, added subscribers and retained them better than management expected. Over half of Q3 viewing on Fox One was news content, pointing to a loyal core audience beyond sports.
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Two Catalysts the Market Is Pricing In
The real reason the stock moved on May 11 is what comes next.
The FIFA Men’s World Cup begins June 11, runs through July 19, and Fox holds exclusive English-language broadcast rights to all 104 matches on U.S. broadcast television. CFO Tomsic confirmed the financial impact splits roughly 50/50 across Fox’s current fiscal Q4 and fiscal Q1 next year, and that the event will be EBITDA accretive at the total company level. Tubi will simulcast opening matches, giving the platform a rare opportunity to build its audience around the world’s most-watched sporting event.
On the political side, Murdoch cited third-party market estimates projecting the 2026 midterm advertising cycle at $11 billion, which would be a midterm record. Fox is already generating record political revenue for an off-year, before that cycle has meaningfully started. Its local stations in battleground states, including Florida and Georgia, combined with issue advertising in large markets like California, position the company to take a significant share.
The sports calendar also reinforced Fox’s content position during the quarter. The World Baseball Classic delivered ratings up over 150% versus the 2023 tournament. MLB’s opening weekend on FOX was up 45%. IndyCar grew 37% as of quarter end. The day before earnings, Fox announced it had acquired two additional national NFL regular-season games for the coming season, including what Murdoch described as the first broadcast-television triple-header in history.
These are contracted events with known revenue timing, which is why the market reacted as strongly as it did.
How Fox Stacks Up Against Peers
Fox trades at 7.94x NTM EV/EBITDA, a modest premium to the TIKR peer group mean of 6.71x. Paramount Skydance sits at 7.38x and Nexstar Media Group at 6.27x. Both face broader structural challenges around content and distribution that Fox’s live news and live sports largely sidestep. Whether that premium holds after 2026’s event calendar clears depends on how much of the advertising gains carry over into free cash flow in FY2027 and beyond.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $66.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$79
- Potential Total Return: ~17%
- Annualized IRR: ~4% / year
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Using the mid case, TIKR’s model projects a revenue CAGR of under 1% through fiscal 2030. The two drivers keeping revenue positive are advertising market recovery (Tubi growth and the recurring political ad cycle) and distribution revenue stability as Fox One builds a subscriber base outside the traditional pay-TV count. EPS growth of around 5% annually drives the return, sustained largely by Fox’s ongoing buyback program, which has retired over 36% of shares outstanding since 2019, including a recently completed $1.5 billion accelerated share repurchase.
The mid-case return of roughly 17% through mid-2030, or about 4% annually, reflects a business with limited top-line growth but strong cash generation. The primary risk is cord-cutting accelerating beyond the current sub-6.5% annual erosion rate at third-party distributors, which would pressure distribution revenue before Fox One can offset the loss.
Conclusion
Watch the total company advertising revenue at Fox’s next earnings report on August 4, 2026. If it sustains double-digit growth through the World Cup quarter, the re-rating thesis has support. If it normalizes to low single digits after the event calendar clears, the mid-case 4% annual return is probably the right frame.
Fox is a live-content business entering its two highest-value events simultaneously, supported by $3.6 billion in cash and a buyback program with room to run. The TIKR model says the upside is real but modest. The next six months will tell investors which scenario they are actually in.
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Should You Invest in Fox Corporation?
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Pull up Fox Corporation, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
