Key Stats
- Current price: ~$13 (May 12, 2026)
- Q1 2026 revenue: $612M, up 18% YoY
- Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA: $152M, up 36% YoY; EBITDA margin 25% vs. 22% prior year
- Q1 2026 adjusted EPS: $0.17
- Average monthly active customers: 6.4M, up 18% YoY; March peak 6.5M
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance: at least $2.55B (reaffirmed)
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance: more than $680M (reaffirmed)
- TIKR model price target: $18
- Implied upside: ~42%
Earnings Breakdown: Super Group Stock Opens 2026 with a Record Quarter
Super Group stock (SGHC) delivered a record Q1, with revenue of $612M up 18% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA of $152M up 36%, expanding margin to 25% from 22% in the prior year period.
Africa was the standout segment, with revenue growing 33% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA rising 21% to $98M, driven by sports wagers up 33% and casino wagers up 36%.
The International segment added $73M in adjusted EBITDA, up 26% year-over-year, with Europe growing 18% on the back of a 29% revenue increase in the U.K., where record customer acquisition followed product improvements and a strong Cheltenham Festival.
North America outside the U.S. grew 15%, with Alberta up 22% year-over-year and Ontario posting a post-regulation record for new customers, according to CEO Neal Menashe on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Average monthly active customers reached a record 6.4M, up 18% year-over-year, with March setting a new monthly high of 6.5M customers, according to CFO Alinda Van Wyk on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Super Group closed the Apricot transaction at the end of February, completing its acquisition of the sportsbook IP and moving more than 100 development resources in-house, a shift management expects to deliver cost savings and accelerated product development.
The company ended Q1 with $422M in cash, up 20% year-over-year, despite returning $152M to shareholders including a special dividend paid in February, according to Van Wyk on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
SGHC increased its minimum quarterly dividend target to $0.05 per share, with free cash flow conversion holding at 75%.
Management reaffirmed full-year 2026 guidance of at least $2.55B in revenue and more than $680M in adjusted EBITDA, declining to raise despite the Q1 beat, with Menashe stating on the call that the company does not adjust guidance this early in the year.
The U.K. tax change that took effect April 1 is expected to create a pre-mitigation EBITDA headwind of approximately $30M, though Van Wyk noted on the Q1 2026 earnings call that operating leverage and marketing efficiency have so far contained the impact.
The ZAR Supercoin wallet launched in soft beta for Betway South Africa customers in mid-April, with planned listings on OVEX and VELA exchanges expected later in the quarter to expand liquidity and adoption across the ecosystem.
Super Group Stock: What the Income Statement Shows
The Q1 2026 income statement reflects an accelerating operating leverage story, with margins recovering and expanding meaningfully after a soft patch in late 2025.
Gross margin reached 31% in Q1 2026, up from 28% in Q1 2025, and recovering from the 28% level in Q4 2025 after touching a high of 33% in Q3 2025.
Operating income reached $120M in Q1 2026, up from $90M in Q1 2025, with operating margin expanding to 20% from 17% in the prior year period.
The sequential recovery from Q4 2025’s $100M operating income and 18% operating margin reinforces the trajectory Menashe described on the call: disciplined cost management and controlled marketing spend flowing through to the bottom line.
Revenue is also at $610M in Q1 2026, building on a multi-quarter trend that moved from $520M in Q1 2025 through $580M in Q3 2025 before a flat Q4 at $580M and the Q1 step-up.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices Super Group stock at $18, representing approximately 42% upside from the current price of ~$13, with an annualized return of 8% per year over the next ~5 years.
The mid-case assumes a revenue CAGR of 6.5% and a net income margin of 18.8%, alongside a modest P/E compression of 0.6% per year, meaning the model’s implied upside is built on earnings growth rather than multiple expansion.
The Q1 beat on both revenue and EBITDA, combined with the full-year guidance reaffirmation, gives the mid-case assumptions a firmer near-term anchor than they had entering the quarter.
The investment case for Super Group stock is modestly stronger after this report: record MAUs, expanding margins, Apricot closed, and a strengthened balance sheet all support the growth assumptions embedded in the model, while the U.K. tax headwind and World Cup margin uncertainty remain known risks that management has quantified.
Super Group stock’s investment case now hinges on whether the 18% MAU growth and margin expansion from Q1 represent a new sustainable run rate, or whether the World Cup and U.K. tax shift reset the cadence in the second half.
What Has to Go Right
- Africa revenue growth of 33% year-over-year must sustain through Nigeria ramp-up and continued South Africa expansion, with EBITDA of $98M in Q1 providing the earnings base
- The World Cup (104 matches across June and July, versus 64 in 2022) must drive the anticipated customer engagement uplift, with 88% of 2025 revenue from World Cup participating markets
- Apricot IP integration must deliver the development cost savings management flagged, with 100-plus engineers now in-house supporting the global Betway sportsbook
- Alberta regulation launch in July must follow the marketing-first model Menashe described, allowing customer acquisition ahead of the full transition unlike the Ontario rollout
What Could Still Go Wrong
- The U.K. tax change effective April 1 carries a pre-mitigation $30M EBITDA hit, and marketing rate adjustments from competitors may offset the operating leverage gains if industry-wide spend remains elevated
- World Cup sports margin is inherently volatile: the first half of the tournament with 48 teams creates more upset risk than the knockout stages, and a repeat of February’s customer-friendly outcomes could pressure Q2 margin
- Management’s refusal to raise full-year guidance despite tracking ahead of internal expectations leaves the question open of whether Q1 strength is partly front-loaded by seasonality and the Cheltenham Festival tailwind
- ZAR Supercoin adoption is in early beta with no adoption targets disclosed, and processing fees remain the single largest after-tax expense in Africa, meaning the wallet strategy is unproven at scale
Should You Invest in Super Group Limited?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SGHC stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Super Group Limited alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Access Professional Tools to Analyze SGHC stock on TIKR for Free →
