Key Takeaways:
- monday.com is a cloud-based AI work platform that helps teams manage projects, automate workflows, and run business operations in one unified system used by enterprises worldwide.
- MNDY stock could reasonably reach around $103 per share by late 2028, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of around 47% from today’s price of $70, with a 15.8% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
What Happened?
monday.com (MNDY) has had one of the most dramatic stock declines among cloud software companies in 2026. The stock fell more than 51% year to date, sliding from a 52-week high of $317 to around $70. But the business itself kept growing, and Q1 2026 results came in well ahead of estimates. Revenue reached $351 million, up 24% year over year and above the $339 million consensus estimate.
Management also raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $1.466 billion and $1.474 billion. Co-CEOs Roy Mann and Eran Zinman highlighted record net adds of enterprise customers with more than $500,000 in annual recurring revenue.
The company also launched its AI Work Platform with native AI agents and a new consumption-based pricing model. Management also announced the acquisition of OneAI to add voice agent capabilities to the platform.
However, several headwinds weighed on investor confidence throughout the year. A class action lawsuit emerged in early 2026, alleging inflated revenue targets. Multiple executive share disposals also attracted attention. And while net income rose to $28 million in Q1, GAAP operating margins remain thin at around 1%, so profitability is still maturing.
Street analysts remain broadly bullish, with a consensus price target of $119, roughly 70% above the current level. The company’s gross margin of 89.1% is among the strongest in enterprise software. Here’s why monday.com stock could deliver strong annualized returns through 2028 if its AI platform strategy gains traction with enterprise customers.
What the Model Says for MNDY Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for monday.com stock based on its new AI Work Platform strategy, its consistently strong gross margins, and the significant valuation reset that has brought the stock down more than 50% year to date.
Based on estimates of around 17% annual revenue growth, 14.6% operating margins, and a normalized P/E multiple of 15.1x, the model projects monday.com stock could rise from $70 to around $103 per share.
That would be a 47% total return, or a 15.8% annualized return over the next 2.6 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MNDY stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 17.2%
monday.com’s Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue grew 24% year over year to $351 million, beating analyst estimates solidly. Full year 2025 revenue of $1.23 billion also grew 27%, demonstrating consistent double-digit growth.
Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to $1.466 billion to $1.474 billion, representing 19% to 20% growth. That revision reflects confidence in continued demand for its core work management platform and new AI products.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used around 17% annual revenue growth. This reflects a modest moderation from recent rates as the company scales to a larger revenue base and integrates AI pricing changes.
2. Operating Margins: 14.6%
monday.com’s LTM gross margin is an impressive 89.1%, which is among the highest in enterprise SaaS, or software-as-a-service. But its LTM EBIT margin is just 0.6%, showing that operating margins are still in early-stage expansion.
The company is investing heavily in AI product development, sales, and the OneAI integration. Those investments are expected to pay off as revenue grows faster than operating costs over the forecast period.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used 14.6% operating margins. This reflects a gradual improvement trajectory as revenue growth begins to outpace operating cost growth significantly over the next several years.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 15.1x
monday.com currently trades at an NTM P/E of 15.1x, which is a steep discount to its historical valuation. The stock once traded well above 40x P/E when growth expectations were much higher.
The exit P/E of 15.1x reflects the current market environment and the risk overhang from the class action lawsuit. But it also captures a scenario where the market remains conservative in its valuation of monday.com.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we used a 15.1x exit P/E multiple. This is consistent with current market pricing and reflects the balance of risks and opportunities for the business through 2028.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for MNDY stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based on AI platform adoption and operating margin expansion (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: AI product adoption disappoints and margin expansion stalls, with around 11% revenue CAGR → around 6% annual returns
- Mid Case: Core platform grows steadily, and AI agents gain enterprise traction, with around 12% revenue CAGR → around 10% annual returns
- High Case: AI Work Platform emerges as a category leader with strong enterprise upsell, with around 14% revenue CAGR → around 13% annual returns
Going forward, monday.com’s performance will depend on whether its AI platform strategy can re-accelerate growth and expand margins from current thin levels. The near-term model projects 15.8% annualized returns, which is above the 15% threshold that typically signals an undervalued or high-growth stock.
Investors tracking MNDY should watch the class action resolution and the pace of AI product monetization closely, as both could significantly affect sentiment.
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Should You Invest in monday.com Ltd.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up MNDY, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track MNDY alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
