Key Stats
- Current price: ~$57 (May 13, 2026 close: $56.89)
- Q1 2026 revenue: $1.2B, +17% YoY
- Q1 2026 EBITDA: $517M, +18% YoY
- Q1 2026 EBITDA margin: 43%, +20bps YoY
- Q1 2026 adjusted EPS: $1.39, +1% YoY
- Digital revenue: $303M, +58% YoY; 25%+ of group revenue
- Equity free cash flow: $246M, +73% YoY
- 2026 revenue growth guidance: raised to 11% to 14% (from prior range)
- 2026 EBITDA growth guidance: maintained at 7% to 10%
- TIKR model price target: ~$94
- Implied upside: ~65%
VEON Q1 2026 Earnings Breakdown
VEON stock (VEON) delivered $1.2B in Q1 2026 revenue, up 17% year-over-year, while adjusted EPS came in at $1.39, marginally above the prior year’s $1.38.
Digital revenue was the standout driver, reaching $303M in the quarter, representing over 25% of group revenue, according to Group CFO Burak Ozer on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Digital growth accelerated to 58% year-over-year on a reported basis; on a comparable basis excluding a reclassification of enterprise identity and credentials management services, Group CEO Kaan Terzioglu noted the figure exceeded 75%.
EBITDA reached $517M, growing 18% year-over-year, with margins expanding 20 basis points to 43%, reflecting operating leverage and continued cost discipline, according to Ozer on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
Equity free cash flow surged 73% year-over-year to $246M, a figure Terzioglu highlighted as evidence of the quality of the quarter’s growth rather than its scale alone.
Financial services in Pakistan continued to scale, with JazzCash serving over 29 million users, Mobilink Bank’s loan portfolio reaching $289M, and last-12-month transaction value hitting $60B, equal to 15% of Pakistan’s GDP, according to Terzioglu on the Q1 2026 earnings call.
VEON stock’s multiplay customer base, defined as subscribers using both connectivity and digital services, delivered ARPU 3.9x that of voice-only customers; overall ARPU rose to $2.3 from $2.0 a year ago.
Multiplay revenues grew nearly 18% year-over-year and now represent 58% of consumer revenues.
VEON also raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 11% to 14%, up from the prior range, while maintaining EBITDA growth guidance at 7% to 10%, with management citing Pakistan spectrum investment as a key factor in the maintained EBITDA range.
The company secured Pakistan’s largest spectrum allocation in the March auction, and capex intensity, excluding Ukraine, is now guided to 15% to 17% of revenue.
A $100M share buyback program is currently underway, with VEON committing to a minimum of $100M in annual share repurchases going forward; shares repurchased under future programs will be canceled.
Net debt, excluding leases, stood at $1.76B with leverage at 1.07x, and Ozer confirmed the company plans to address debt maturing in 2027 before it becomes current in November 2026.
VEON Stock: Financials
The income statement shows a sustained revenue acceleration over the past year, with operating income stabilizing at a new higher floor after a soft stretch through late 2024.
Total revenues moved from $1.0B in Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 through $1.0B in Q1 2025, then stepped up to $1.1B, $1.1B, $1.2B, and $1.2B across the following four quarters, a consistent sequential build.
Gross margins have held in a tight range, moving from 88% in Q2 2024 to 87% in Q3 2024, recovering to 87% in Q4 2024, and landing at 87% in Q1 2025, before expanding to 90% in Q2 2025 and then settling back to 87% in Q1 2026.
Operating income stepped up from $230M in Q4 2024 to $240M in Q1 2025, then accelerated to $320M in Q2 and Q3 2025 and held at $320M in Q4 2025, before edging back to $310M in Q1 2026.
Operating margins followed a similar arc, compressing to 23% in Q4 2024, recovering to 24% in Q1 2025, peaking at 30% in Q2 2025, and settling at 26% in Q1 2026, a level that still represents a meaningful improvement over the year-ago quarter’s 24%.
The 20-basis-point EBITDA margin expansion to 43% in Q1 2026, noted by Ozer on the Q1 2026 earnings call, reinforces that cost discipline is holding even as the company accelerates digital investments.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
TIKR’s model prices VEON stock at ~$94, implying roughly 65% upside from the current price of ~$57, with the mid-case realized at December 2030.
The model’s mid-case assumes an 8.4% revenue CAGR through 2035 and a 13% net income margin, both assumptions that look credible against a quarter where digital revenue grew 58% and EBITDA margins expanded.
The mid-case also embeds a 3% annual P/E compression, meaning the model’s implied return is conservative by design: even with revenue and margin execution on target, multiple contraction is assumed to offset a portion of the fundamental improvement.
The 73% equity free cash flow surge and the raised revenue guidance add credibility to the bull path; the maintained EBITDA range and elevated Pakistan capex are the variables that determine whether margins track the model or underperform it.
VEON stock’s investment case is stronger after this quarter, with the digital revenue acceleration and cash generation trajectory both ahead of what the mid-case requires.
Digital revenue approaching 25% of group sales with 58% growth is the investment thesis made real; the question is whether Pakistan capex, geopolitical noise, and inflation absorb the upside before it reaches equity holders.
- Digital revenue maintains its growth trajectory toward management’s target of 50%+ of group revenues by end of 2029, consistent with Terzioglu’s comments on the Q1 2026 earnings call
- JazzCash and Mobilink Bank lending, which already represent more than half of Pakistan financial services revenue, continue scaling without a deterioration in the controlled NPL ratios disclosed this quarter
- Pakistan capex investment in 700MHz spectrum translates into monetizable capacity, given average data consumption of just 7.5GB per month versus Terzioglu’s stated target of 3x that level
- Leverage holds at or below the company’s stated 1.5x ceiling, enabling the minimum $100M annual buyback commitment to continue without balance sheet stress
What Could Still Go Wrong
- Maintaining EBITDA guidance at 7% to 10% despite raising revenue guidance 11% to 14% implies potential margin compression at the midpoint, a dynamic Terzioglu declined to clarify until Q2 results
- Weighted average inflation across VEON’s markets is running at 8.1%, with double-digit inflation expected going forward, creating a pricing execution risk if consumer tolerance weakens
- Fuel availability issues in Bangladesh described by Terzioglu on the Q1 2026 earnings call could broaden if regional energy market instability persists
- Debt refinancing of the 2027 notes before November 2026 is flagged as in progress but unresolved, introducing execution risk on capital structure at a moment of elevated investment spend
Should You Invest in VEON Ltd.?
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