Key Stats for Scotts Miracle-Gro Stock
- Price change for Scotts Miracle-Gro stock: -4%
- $SMG Stock Price as of Mar. 26: $62
- 52-Week High: $72
- $SMG Stock Price Target: $75
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What Happened?
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) stock dropped 4% on Thursday after JPMorgan downgraded the stock from overweight to neutral. The culprit is the Iran war, which started on February 28 and has sent raw material costs sharply higher.
Analyst Jeffrey Zekauskas cut his price target on Scotts Miracle-Gro stock to $67 from $70.
His concern is straightforward: the company buys large amounts of fertilizer, plastic, and diesel every year, and all three have gotten significantly more expensive.
- Urea fertilizer prices have jumped to $660 per short ton from an average of $422.
- Polyethylene plastic has climbed to $1,280 per ton from $843.
- Diesel is now around $5.37 per gallon, compared with a $3.72 average.
- Scotts buys roughly 150 kilotons of urea and 30 kilotons of plastic annually, so these aren’t small numbers.
JPMorgan estimates the company will pay $45 to $50 million more for raw materials in fiscal 2027 than it did this year.
Zekauskas trimmed his 2027 EPS estimate to $4.35 from $4.65 as a result.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Scotts Miracle-Gro Stock
The downgrade is a meaningful shift.
JPMorgan had been bullish on Scotts Miracle-Gro stock for at least three years. Abandoning that stance now sends a clear signal that the near-term earnings picture has gotten more complicated.
About 25% to 30% of Scotts’ cost of sales is tied to commodity-sensitive materials.
That makes the company more exposed to supply disruptions than many investors may realize.
And because Scotts tends to lock in raw material purchases in February and September, these higher prices are already baked into next year’s cost structure.
Management has previously flagged pricing as one of three key growth drivers for 2026.
That likely means some cost pressure gets passed on to consumers. But higher prices in a category like lawn care — where shoppers are already watching their budgets — could slow demand.
Scotts Miracle stock had surged 31% over the prior four months before March hit.
Now it’s on track for its worst monthly performance since February 2025.
The underlying business remains solid — Q1 results came in ahead of expectations and the company reaffirmed full-year guidance — but the commodity headwind is real and likely to linger.
For investors watching Scotts Miracle stock, the key question is how quickly the Iran conflict resolves and whether raw material costs stabilize before the fiscal 2027 buying window.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
