Key Stats for ET Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 18%
- 52-Week Range: $15 to $19
- Valuation Model Target Price: $25
- Implied Upside: 27%
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What Happened?
Energy Transfer LP stock is up about 18% year to date, recently trading near $19 per share as investor sentiment toward high-yield energy infrastructure companies has improved alongside peers like Enterprise Products Partners and ONEOK, which are also benefiting from rising demand for U.S. natural gas infrastructure.
The stock has moved higher primarily because Energy Transfer is showing clear earnings growth driven by higher pipeline volumes and export demand, while continuing to pay a roughly 7% dividend backed by long-term contracts.
These contracts mean the company earns fees for moving oil and gas through its pipelines, which keeps cash flow stable even when energy prices fluctuate.
This year, Energy Transfer reported fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $4.18 billion, up 8% year over year, while full-year adjusted EBITDA reached a record nearly $16 billion as volumes increased across NGL, crude, midstream, and natural gas operations.
Co-CEO Tom Long said the partnership is “poised for continued growth in 2026,” supported by updated EBITDA guidance of $17.45 billion to $17.85 billion, new Permian processing plants, and growing natural gas demand tied to power generation and data centers, including recently started deliveries to Oracle’s data center near Abilene.
Institutional activity has remained active but mixed, reflecting continued interest from large investors. CIBC Bancorp USA initiated a position of about 15.4 million shares worth roughly $264 million, while MIRAE Asset Global ETFs increased its holdings by 2.6% to about 21.9 million shares valued near $376 million, and Avior Wealth Management boosted its stake by 436.6%.
At the same time, Chickasaw Capital Management reduced its position by 1.4%, Wilmington Savings Fund Society cut its stake by 50.8%, and Goldentree Asset Management lowered its holdings by 24.2%, with overall institutional ownership remaining around 38%.
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Is ET Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 9%
- Operating Margins: 11%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 12x
Revenue growth is expected to remain steady because Energy Transfer earns fees based on how much volume moves through its pipelines and terminals, not the price of oil or gas.
As more natural gas is exported and used for electricity generation, more volume flows through its system, which increases revenue.
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Much of this growth is tied to expansion projects in the Permian Basin and export terminals, where new infrastructure allows the company to handle more oil, gas, and natural gas liquids over time.
Compared to peers like Enterprise Products Partners and ONEOK, Energy Transfer offers a higher yield while benefiting from similar volume-driven growth across the midstream sector.
This means the company can grow earnings through higher usage of its assets rather than relying on commodity price increases.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of about $25, implying roughly 27% upside over the next few years, suggesting the stock appears undervalued at current levels.
Over the next 12 months, performance is likely to be driven by rising export volumes, new processing capacity in the Permian, and increasing demand for natural gas from power plants and data centers, while strong cash flow supports both debt reduction and continued dividend payments.
At current levels, Energy Transfer appears undervalued, with future returns driven by steady volume growth and durable cash flow.
How Much Upside Does ET Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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