Key Takeaways:
- Earnings Momentum: CBRE stock delivered 14% Q3 revenue growth to 10 billion, confirming transaction recovery and facilities demand.
- Margin Expansion: CBRE stock expanded EBITDA margins to 8% in Q3, reflecting operating leverage as volumes recovered.
- Price Target: Based on valuation assumptions, CBRE stock could reach $203 by 2027 as earnings normalize near 6% margins.
- Return Profile: CBRE stock implies 20% upside from $169, translating to 10% annual returns through 2027.
CBRE Group (CBRE) provides global commercial real estate services, holding scale leadership with 39 billion revenue across advisory and facilities.
CBRE scheduled a February 12 2026 earnings call after Q3 results showed accelerating demand across leasing and facilities.
In 2025, CBRE generated 39 billion revenue and 2 billion operating income, supporting a 5% operating margin.
CBRE holds a 50 billion market cap, with revenue driven by transaction recovery and profitability supported by facilities management scale.
Despite improving margins to 5% and earnings momentum, CBRE trades near 23x earnings, testing market confidence in 2027.
What the Model Says for CBRE Stock
We analyzed CBRE stock using operating recovery, facilities scale, and disciplined capital returns to frame normalized earnings power.
Based on 10.7% revenue growth, 5.9% margins, and 22.5x exit multiple, the model estimates $203.42 value.
That implies 20.1% total upside from $169, translating to about 10% annual returns through 2027.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for CBRE stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10.7%
CBRE delivered LTM revenue of 39 billion, rising from 36 billion in 2024 as transaction volumes and facilities activity recovered.
Q3 revenue reached 10 billion, growing 14% year over year, confirming improving leasing demand and steadier capital markets activity.
Growth remains tied to office and industrial transactions, while facilities management provides recurring revenue stability during slower transaction cycles.
According to consensus analyst estimates, 10.7% revenue growth reflects cyclical recovery balanced against uneven global commercial real estate conditions.
2. Operating Margins: 5.9%
CBRE stock generated a 5% LTM operating margin, recovering from 4% in 2024 as volume improved across advisory and facilities services.
EBITDA margins expanded to 8% in Q3, signaling operating leverage as revenue scaled faster than fixed cost growth.
Margin upside depends on sustained transaction recovery, while cost discipline limits downside during slower leasing periods.
In line with analyst consensus projections, 5.9% margins reflect normalized earnings power supported by scale benefits and stable facilities contracts.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 22.5x
CBRE stock currently trades near 23x earnings, reflecting cautious sentiment following several years of volatile commercial real estate cycles.
Historically, the stock traded at similar multiples during periods of improving transaction activity and steadier earnings visibility.
Multiple support requires consistent revenue growth and margin stability, while weaker transaction trends could pressure valuation.
Based on street consensus estimates, a 22.5x exit multiple supports a $203 target price, implying 20% total upside and 10% annual returns.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
CBRE’s outcomes depend on transaction volumes, facilities contract stability, and cost control discipline, setting up a range of possible paths through 2029.
- Low Case: If transactions stay muted and costs stay sticky, revenue grows around 8.8% with margins near 4.6% → 1.6% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With core recovery holding and facilities demand steady, revenue grows about 9.7% and margins improve toward 5.1% → 8.5% annualized return.
- High Case: If leasing rebounds faster and scale efficiency improves, revenue reaches about 10.7% with margins near 5.4% → 14.9% annualized return.
The mid-case $233 target depends on sustained transaction recovery, continued facilities contract growth, and holding margins near 5% as leasing volumes normalize through 2029.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
