Key Takeaways:
- Governance Update: BlackRock appointed Gregg Lemkau to its board in January 2026, strengthening oversight as assets scale across ETFs and alternatives.
- Product Expansion: New ETF filings, including a Bitcoin income strategy, extend BlackRock’s platform beyond traditional index and active products.
- Earnings Strength: Revenue rose 23% year over year in the latest quarter, while operating margins held near 24%, reflecting scale efficiency.
- Return Outlook: The current valuation implies a 16% annualized return through 2028, supported by 13% revenue growth and margin expansion rather than multiple expansion.
BlackRock (BLK) is the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing diversified investment products that generated $24 in revenue over the last twelve months.
Recent developments include board expansion and new ETF filings that strengthen governance and broaden product offerings globally.
In the most recent quarter ended December 31, 2025, BlackRock reported $7 billion in revenue and $2 billion in net income which reflect strong market-linked inflows.
Operating margins reached 24%, showing scale efficiency as higher asset-based fees lifted profitability last quarter.
Even as earnings efficiency improves and revenue growth reaches 13%, BlackRock trades near 20x earnings, setting up tension between execution strength and valuation.
What the Model Says for BLK Stock
We analyzed BlackRock using recent revenue growth, margin expansion, capital scale, and product breadth across ETFs and institutional mandates.
Based on 13.2% revenue growth, 40.2% operating margins, and a 20.3x exit multiple, the model projects BlackRock reaching $1,705.27.
That implies a 54.1% total return, or a 15.9% annualized return over the next 2.9 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BLK stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 13.2%
BlackRock generated about $24 in LTM revenue, accelerating from $20 in 2024 as market appreciation and inflows lifted asset-based fees.
Recent quarterly revenue grew 23% year over year, reflecting stronger equity markets and continued ETF and active fund demand.
Growth depends on market levels and net inflows, with downside risk from market volatility and institutional allocation pauses.
According to consensus analyst estimates, a 13.2% revenue growth assumption balances strong recent momentum with normalizing capital market conditions.
2. Operating Margins: 40.2%
BlackRock posted operating margins near 24% in the latest quarter, below long-term potential due to compensation timing and investment spending.
Scale advantages and technology leverage historically support margins above 35% during favorable market cycles.
Margin expansion relies on operating leverage from higher AUM, while market drawdowns and cost inflation remain key constraints.
In line with analyst consensus projections, operating margins of 40.2% reflect normalization toward historical peaks during sustained asset growth periods.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.3x
BlackRock currently trades near 20x earnings, in line with its five-year average during stable market environments.
Investors remain selective given earnings sensitivity to markets, despite strong fee diversification and recurring ETF revenues.
Multiple support depends on consistent inflows and margin recovery without sharp market volatility.
Based on street consensus estimates, a 20.3x exit multiple reflects balanced expectations for scale durability, earnings quality, and a 16% annual return profile.
What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
BlackRock’s outcomes depend on market levels client inflows and fee discipline setting up a range of possible paths through 2030.
- Low Case: If markets soften and inflows slow revenue grows around 10.9% with margins near 30.4% → 8.5% annualized return.
- Mid Case: With core franchises executing steadily revenue growth near 12.1% and margins improving toward 32.9% → 14.2% annualized return.
- High Case: If markets stay supportive and inflows accelerate revenue reaches about 13.4% and margins approach 34.9% → 19.4% annualized return.
The $2,130 mid-case target depends on steady inflows and margin normalization and remains achievable without multiple expansion or market hype.
How Much Upside Does It Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
