Key Stats for HCA Healthcare Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 4%
- 52-week Range: $295 to $528
- Valuation Model Target Price: $625
- Implied Upside: 23.6% over 2.9 years
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What Happened?
HCA Healthcare stock rose about 4% over the past week, supported by continued investor focus on the company’s earnings outlook and margin trajectory following its recent results.
Shares gained after HCA reported fourth-quarter earnings of $8.14 per share, beating expectations, and issued a constructive profit outlook for 2026.
CEO Sam Hazen highlighted ongoing labor cost normalization and operating discipline, while management guided to earnings per share around $30 and EBITDA near $16 billion, both ahead of consensus estimates.
The update reinforced confidence in cash flow generation and capital returns, including ongoing share repurchases, which supported buying interest and kept the stock near recent highs.
Overall, the weekly advance reflected earnings-driven confidence in profitability and execution, rather than a reaction to a single headline, leaving the broader outlook intact as investors focused on forward earnings power.
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Is HCA Healthcare Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, HCA Healthcare is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.9%
- Operating Margins: 15.5%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 14.6x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $625, implying 23.6% total upside from recent levels over the next 2.9 years.
Over the next year, results are likely shaped by patient volume trends, particularly growth in higher-acuity services, alongside pricing discipline across commercial and managed care contracts.
Margin performance remains closely tied to labor efficiency, reduced reliance on contract staffing, and supply cost control, where incremental improvements can meaningfully lift earnings given HCA’s scale.
Capital allocation continues to support per-share results, as strong free cash flow funds ongoing share repurchases even if revenue growth remains steady.
HCA Healthcare appears undervalued at current levels, with future performance driven by operational execution, margin improvement, and capital returns rather than multiple expansion.
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