IonQ Fell 4% Last Week. Here’s Why the Stock Has 300% Return Potential

Wiltone Asuncion4 minute read
Reviewed by: Thomas Richmond
Last updated Jan 26, 2026

Key Stats for IonQ Stock

  • Price Change: -4.2%
  • Current Price: $47
  • Advanced Model Price Target: $196

The Street targets $75. The Model targets $196. Who is right? Run the numbers on TIKR →

What Happened This Week?

IonQ (IONQ) pulled back 4.2% on Friday, closing at $47 as volatility hit the broader quantum sector.

Despite the dip, the company made a massive strategic move by appointing Katie Arrington as Chief Information Officer effective this month.

Arrington is a heavyweight in the defense world, having previously served as a senior Department of Defense official where she led the Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC).

Furthermore, her arrival signals that IonQ is aggressively positioning itself to win classified government contracts, transforming from a research firm into a critical national security asset.

While the stock declined alongside peers like Rigetti (NRGTI) and D-Wave (QBTS), analysts see this leadership shift as a key step toward securing larger federal revenue streams in 2026.

IonQ Stock Price Target (TIKR)

See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for IonQ stock (It’s free!) >>>

Is IonQ Undervalued Today?

The disconnect between price and performance is widening, especially when looking at the historic Q3 Earnings results.

CFO Inder Singh reported record revenues of $39.9 million, crushing analyst estimates by over 48.2%.

CEO Niccolo de Masi confirmed the momentum is accelerating, noting that results came in “37.0% above the high end of our guidance.”

Additionally, management backed this up by raising their full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $106 million to $110 million, proving that demand for their systems is real.

Beyond the financials, the company recently finalized an agreement to deliver a 100-Qubit system to South Korea, cementing its global dominance.

Technically, the team has achieved a world-record 99.99% 2-qubit gate fidelity, a milestone that separates them from virtually every competitor in the race for commercial advantage.

According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, this combination of elite government talent and hyper-growth execution implies massive upside.

  • Advanced Model Price Target: $196
  • Current Price: $47
  • Potential Upside: +314.7%

The model assumes IonQ can maintain a blistering 70.0% revenue CAGR through 2030 as it scales its “defense-grade” quantum cloud.

This projection reveals a staggering valuation gap of $149 per share between the current price and the company’s long-term intrinsic value.

Unlike Wall Street’s consensus, which often lags behind exponential tech curves, the TIKR model factors in the “Winner-Take-Most” economics of the quantum era.

It explicitly rewards IonQ’s expanding patent moat and high-margin software revenue

Suggesting that the stock is currently priced as a speculative venture rather than a future utility.

Conclusion: The week ended red, but the strategic pieces are falling into place. With a new defense veteran CIO and a valuation model pointing to $196, IonQ stock looks ready to capitalize on the next wave of government spending.

See the full IonQ Inc IONQ forecast on TIKR >>>

How Much Upside Does IonQ Stock Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

  1. Revenue Growth
  2. Operating Margins
  3. Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!

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