Key Takeaways:
- Silvus Momentum: The $4.4B acquisition is exceeding expectations, with revenue raised from $475M to $500M for 2025
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, MSI stock could reach $541 by December 2029
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 35% from the current price of $402
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 8% annual growth over the next 3.9 years
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Motorola Solutions (MSI) just delivered record Q3 orders. The company posted 8% revenue growth and 11% growth in software and services, while absorbing $70-80M in tariffs.
CEO Greg Brown is executing a transformation beyond traditional land mobile radio into mission-critical data and AI-powered public safety tools. The recent Silvus acquisition gives Motorola leadership in high-speed networking for defense and autonomous systems.
The results validate this strategy:
- Revenue hit $3 billion in Q3 with strong performance across all segments
- Operating margins expanded 80 basis points to 30.5%
- Software and Services backlog reached a record $11 billion
With Silvus exceeding expectations and major infrastructure upgrades driving multi-year cycles, the stock trades at $402, offering upside for investors who recognize the company’s expanding technology footprint.
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What the Model Says for Motorola Solutions Stock.
We analyzed Motorola through its evolution from a legacy radio provider into a comprehensive public safety and defense technology company.
The company dominates mission-critical voice with P25 and TETRA systems. Now it’s adding mission-critical data through Silvus while layering AI across video, command centers, and body-worn devices.
The APX NEXT ecosystem is growing to 300,000 devices by end-2026, and cloud video adoption is accelerating.
The Silvus deal opens new markets in defense, borders, and unmanned systems. Management raised 2025 revenue expectations to $500M and now expects EPS contribution of $0.30-0.40 next year, up from the original $0.20 outlook.
Using 7.2% annual revenue growth and 30.7% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $466 within 1.9 years at a 24.1x price-to-earnings multiple.
That represents compression from Motorola’s current 25.5x P/E, reflecting tariff headwinds and caution around acquisitions.
However, Motorola’s margin expansion track record (three consecutive years above 40% incremental margins) and strong backlog should support multiple stability.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for MSI stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 7.2%
Motorola’s growth centers on expanding beyond traditional LMR.
Software & Services: This segment grew 11% in Q3, and management now expects low-double-digit full-year growth. The $11 billion backlog provides visibility. APX NEXT applications drive recurring revenue, with 300,000 connected devices expected by end-2026.
Infrastructure Refresh: The new D-Series represents the first major upgrade in 12 years. Colorado ($110M), Tennessee ($84M), and other statewide networks are signing multi-year contracts bundling infrastructure, devices, and services.
Silvus: The acquisition started strong with $500M expected in 2025 and 20% growth next year. International defense, autonomous systems, and border security create a significant runway.
Video: While overall video grew 7%, the cloud Avigilon Alta platform is growing 4x faster, driving higher-margin subscriptions.
2. Operating margins: 30.7%
Current Performance: Operating margins hit 30.5% in Q3, up 80 basis points despite $70-80M in tariff costs. The company has delivered over 100 basis points of annual expansion.
Mix Benefits: Software and Services posted 32.6% margins in Q3. As APX NEXT subscriptions and cloud video adoption accelerate, this favorable shift continues.
Product Strength: Feature-rich APX NEXT devices command premium pricing. Penetration remains low (about 300,000) across the 2 million first responder base, providing years of upgrade opportunity.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 24.1x
The market values Motorola at 25.5x earnings. We assume modest compression to 24.1x.
Below Historical Average: The NTM P/E has averaged 28.3x over the past year and 26.1x over the past five years. Our assumption reflects near-term tariff headwinds and Silvus integration risk.
Undervalues Position: As Silvus delivers and infrastructure upgrades drive revenue, Motorola should maintain its multiple. The company expects $2.75 billion in operating cash flow this year—the third consecutive year of double-digit growth.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Here’s how Motorola stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2029:
- Low Case: With 5.3% revenue growth and 21.0% margins, the stock offers a 2.5% annual return.
- Mid Case: At 5.9% growth and 22.3% margins, expect a 7.9% annual return.
- High Case: If Silvus and infrastructure deployments grow by 6.5% and achieve 23.2% margins, returns could reach 12.6% annually.
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In the low case, tariffs persist, or competitive pressure emerges in video markets.
In the high case, defense spending drives faster Silvus growth, infrastructure refresh cycles accelerate internationally, and cloud video adoption exceeds expectations.
How Much Upside Does Motorola Solutions Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
