Key Takeaways:
- Aeroports de Paris SA is rebuilding traffic and earnings as global air travel normalizes and capacity grows across its Paris hubs.
- ADP stock could reasonably reach €170 per share by December 2029, based on our valuation assumptions.
- This implies a total return of 55.4% from today’s price of €109, with an annualized return of 11.8% over the next 3.9 years.
Aeroports de Paris SA (ADP) sits at the center of European and global air travel, because it operates and designs airports in France and several international markets.
The group manages aviation, retail, and real estate activities across its Paris airports and stakes in airports in Turkey, Kazakhstan, Jordan, and Georgia, so it captures multiple revenue streams from each passenger.
As international traffic recovers, ADP is benefiting from higher passenger volumes, improving commercial spend per passenger, and rising airport-related services demand.
The company’s diversified model means aviation fees, duty-free and specialty retail, and real estate income all contribute to profitability as traffic normalizes and grows.
What the Model Says for Aeroports de Paris Stock
We analyzed the upside potential for Aeroports de Paris stock using valuation assumptions tied to its airport traffic recovery, retail and real estate growth, and steady profitability.
Based on estimates of 5.8% annual revenue growth, 19.8% operating margins, and a normalized exit P/E multiple of 18.4x, the model projects Sanofi stock could rise from €109 to €147 per share in the next 2.0 years.
That would be a 34.4% total return, or a 16.5% annualized return over the next 2.0 years.
Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Aeroports de Paris stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 5.8%
ADP’s revenue has grown 8.2% annually over the last decade and 12.1% over the past year, as traffic continues to rebound and retail and services ramp up.
The business benefits from passenger growth at its Paris airports, expansion of commercial offerings in terminals, and incremental contributions from international airport operations.
As travel normalizes beyond the post‑pandemic surge, growth is expected to moderate toward a more sustainable mid‑single‑digit pace.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 5.8% annual revenue growth assumption, which sits below the recent rebound rate but in line with a long‑term traffic and pricing trend supported by steady global air travel demand.
2. Operating Margins: 19.8%
Historically, ADP has generated operating margins in the low‑to‑mid‑20% range, with the last year coming in at about 22.5% as high traffic volumes supported profitability.
The company’s retail and services businesses, including duty‑free, food and beverage, parking, and other passenger services, typically carry higher margins than basic aviation fees, so the mix can support profitability as commercial activities scale.
However, airports also face ongoing cost pressures from security, maintenance, regulatory requirements, and investment in capacity and infrastructure.
Based on analysts’ consensus estimates, we use a 19.8% operating margin assumption, which reflects slightly lower margins than the latest year but still assumes healthy profitability as traffic growth and efficiency gains offset structural costs.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 18.4x
ADP currently trades at a price‑to‑earnings multiple of about 18.4x on a normalized basis, which sits below some pre‑pandemic peaks but remains consistent with a high‑quality infrastructure asset.
The market continues to weigh long‑term traffic growth and the stability of regulated airport economics against cyclical risk from global travel disruptions and macroeconomic volatility.
Given ADP’s diversified revenue base, strategic importance to France’s transport system, and improving financial profile, the model assumes the same 18.4x P/E multiple at the end of the forecast period.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Different scenarios for ADP stock through 2030 show varied outcomes based based on different growth, margin, and valuation outcomes (these are estimates, not guaranteed returns):
- Low Case: Revenue grows about 4.2% annually, margins and valuation stay more conservative → 6.2% annual returns
- Mid Case: Revenue grows around 4.7% annually, profitability and valuation track the base assumptions → 11.9% annual returns
- High Case: Revenue growth trends closer to 5.2% per year with slightly stronger margins and multiple support → 16.9% annual returns
These scenarios help frame how changes in air‑traffic trends, capital spending, regulatory decisions, and macro conditions could impact both earnings and valuation over time.
See what analysts think about ADP stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
How Much Upside Does Aeroports de Paris Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
