ASML Gains 1.6% on TSMC’s $56B Outlook. Is 28% Upside Next?

Wiltone Asuncion3 minute read
Reviewed by: Thomas Richmond
Last updated Jan 23, 2026

Key Stats for ASML Stock

  • Price Change: +1.6%
  • Current Price: €1,167
  • Advanced Model Price Target: €1,492

Want to know how much upside ASML could have in 2026? Run the numbers yourself on TIKR (It’s free) →

What Happened?

Shares of ASML Holding (ASML) rose 1.6% to a record €1,167 on Friday, officially pushing the company’s market value into the $500 Billion Club.

The stock pushed higher after TSMC (TSM), ASML’s largest customer, announced a massive plan to spend up to $56 billion on new equipment this year.

This capital expenditure forecast confirms that the demand for EUV lithography machines remains insatiable as the AI chip boom accelerates.

Consequently, ASML is solidifying its status as the “Monopoly of AI,” being the only company in the world capable of manufacturing the tools needed for next-gen silicon.

ASML Stock Price Target (TIKR)

Is ASML Undervalued Today?

Despite hitting all-time highs, TIKR’s data suggests the stock still has room to run as the AI infrastructure build-out is just beginning.

CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed in the Q3 earnings call that the “end market dynamics” are shifting toward more advanced logic and DRAM, requiring significantly more EUV layers.

According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the monopoly premium is justified, but value remains.

  • Implied Fair Value: €1,492
  • Current Price: €1,167
  • Potential Upside: +27.9%

The model assumes ASML can maintain a 12.6% revenue CAGR while capitalizing on the transition to “High-NA” EUV systems.

If TSMC executes on its full spending plan, a move toward €1,492 is supported by the sheer volume of orders entering the backlog.

Estimate ASML’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>

How Much Upside Does ASML Have From Here?

With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

  1. Revenue Growth
  2. Operating Margins
  3. Exit P/E Multiple

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>

Looking for New Opportunities?

Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!

Join thousands of investors worldwide who use TIKR to supercharge their investment analysis.

Sign Up for FREENo credit card required