Key Takeaways:
- Connected Trip Vision: Booking Holdings is transforming into a comprehensive travel ecosystem powered by AI.
- Price Projection: The stock could reach $6,667 by December 2027.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 29% from the current price of $5,164.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 14% annual growth over the next 1.9 years.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) delivered a strong third quarter, beating expectations across the board. Room nights grew 8%, gross bookings jumped 14%, and revenue climbed 13%—all exceeding guidance. But the real story is how the company is positioning itself for the future of travel.
With 323 million room nights in Q3 and its Genius loyalty program accounting for over 30% of active users, Booking is building a Connected Trip ecosystem that combines accommodations, flights, rental cars, and attractions into one seamless experience.
Despite strong fundamentals, BKNG stock trades at $5,164, offering upside for investors who grasp the transformation underway.
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What the Model Says for Booking Holdings Stock
We analyzed Booking through CEO Glenn Fogel’s Connected Trip vision: creating a platform where travelers plan, book, and manage entire trips while the company captures more value per customer.
The strategy is working.
- Connected Trip transactions grew mid-20% in Q3.
- Flight tickets jumped 32%, and attraction bookings surged 90%.
- Travelers who book multiple verticals return more frequently, increasing lifetime value.
Using 10% annual revenue growth and 35.4% operating margins, our model projects the stock will reach $6,667 in 1.9 years. This assumes a 19.6x P/E multiple—modest compression from Booking’s current 20.1x.
The real value comes from growing direct bookings, expanding merchant payments, and capturing more of each customer’s total travel spend.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for BKNG stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 10%
Booking benefits from multiple growth drivers working together.
Direct Channel Momentum: Direct bookings reached mid-60% of total volume, up from low-60% a year ago. Direct bookings are more profitable and drive higher retention. U.S. direct growth accelerated meaningfully in Q3.
Loyalty Strength: Genius Levels 2 and 3 members now represent over 30% of active users and account for mid-50% of room nights. These travelers book more often, cancel less, and return consistently.
Connected Trip Growth: Multi-vertical bookings grew mid-20% as Booking added Ryanair and Southwest partnerships. Dynamic home screens now adapt to each traveler’s searches.
Alternative Accommodations: Listings grew to 8.6 million, up 10%. Alternative accommodations now represent 36% of room night mix, up from 35% a year ago.
2. Operating margins: 35.4%
Booking operates with best-in-class margins that continue improving through operational leverage.
Current Performance: Q3 EBITDA margins were strong, with revenue growth outpacing expenses. The Transformation Program delivered $70 million in quarterly savings and enabled $450 million in annual run rate savings—exceeding expectations.
Strategic Investments: Management is reinvesting $170 million above baseline in 2025 for AI development, payments infrastructure, and Connected Trip capabilities. Despite this, operating leverage remains intact.
AI Efficiencies: Customer service costs dropped year-over-year despite volume growth approaching 10%. AI tools like Smart Messenger are reducing contact rates while improving satisfaction.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 19.6x
The market values Booking at 20.1x earnings currently. We chose 19.6x for our exit multiple to stay conservative. Booking’s P/E has averaged 22.7x over the past year and 27.2x over the past decade. Some compression to 19.6x accounts for macro uncertainty while recognizing strong execution.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Travel platforms face competition from traditional players and AI-powered search. Here’s how Booking stock might perform through December 2029:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 8% and margins compress to 29%, the stock offers a 7.5% annual return with a $6,860 target.
- Mid Case: With 9% growth and 31% margins, we expect an annual return of 14.2% and a $8,721 target.
- High Case: If Connected Trip adoption accelerates by 10% and margins reach 33%, returns could hit 20.5% annually, with a $10,780 target.
See what analysts think about BKNG stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
The range reflects different AI adoption scenarios. In the low case, OpenAI and competitors capture more booking intent.
In the high case, Booking’s first-mover advantage in Connected Trip and relationships with 850,000 partners let it dominate AI-powered travel planning while expanding margins through automation.
How Much Upside Does Booking Holdings Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
