Key Stats for Waste Management Stock
- Past-Week Performance: 4%
- 52-week Range: $194 to $243
- Valuation Model Target Price: $283
- Implied Upside: 23.5% over 1.9 years
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What Happened?
Waste Management, Inc. stock rose about 4% over the past week, trading higher through most sessions and finishing near $230, close to the upper end of its recent trading range.
The move reflected renewed positioning ahead of the company’s upcoming earnings report, with attention centered on pricing execution, landfill volumes, and margin stability across Waste Management’s core collection and disposal operations.
After a relatively calm period earlier in the month, the stock attracted steady buying interest as it held firm despite broader market volatility.
Analyst activity also supported sentiment during the week. Several firms reiterated or adjusted price targets, pointing to Waste Management’s ability to deliver price-led revenue growth and protect margins through contracted pricing, internal waste flows, and scale advantages.
Those updates reinforced confidence that near-term earnings expectations remain well supported heading into results.
Overall, the advance was driven by earnings anticipation and constructive analyst commentary, with steady demand for defensive, cash-generative businesses helping support shares near $230.
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Is Waste Management Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 8.4%
- Operating Margins: 19.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 27.6x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $283, implying 23.5% total upside from recent levels over the next 1.9 years.
Over the next year, performance is likely shaped by Waste Management’s ability to sustain price-driven revenue growth, supported by contractual escalators, disciplined surcharge recovery, and stable demand across collection and landfill operations.
Margin outcomes remain closely tied to route density improvements, automation investments, and landfill economics, particularly as internal waste flows continue to support higher-margin disposal revenue.
Progress in recycling modernization, renewable natural gas projects, and disciplined capital allocation reinforces free cash flow visibility, making execution on pricing, margins, and infrastructure efficiency the key factors influencing results.
Waste Management appears fairly valued at current levels, with future returns likely driven by steady earnings growth and cash flow execution rather than a near-term valuation re-rating.
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