Key Stats for Sherwin-Williams Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3%
- 52-week Range: $309 to $380
- Valuation Model Target Price: $400
- Implied Upside: 14.8% over 1.9 years
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What Happened?
Sherwin-Williams stock fell about 3% last week, finishing near $350 after trading lower across most sessions. Early stabilization attempts faded as selling pressure built, leaving shares near the lower end of their recent range.
The decline followed a Deutsche Bank downgrade late in the week, which weighed on sentiment. Deutsche Bank analyst David Begleiter cut the stock to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target to $380 from $390, citing valuation that now sits above the company’s historical five-year averages.
The firm also flagged a slower earnings outlook, noting that 2026 is expected to mark Sherwin-Williams’ third consecutive year of sub-10% earnings growth.
Until the company shows a clearer path back to sustained double-digit earnings growth, Deutsche Bank sees downside pressure on the stock’s valuation multiple.
Overall, last week’s pullback reflected valuation concerns and earnings expectations rather than operational weakness, keeping near-term price action closely tied to analyst revisions and growth visibility heading into upcoming results.
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Is Sherwin-Williams Fairly Valued?
Under valuation model assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 3.7%
- Operating Margins: 17.9%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 28.0x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $400, implying 14.8% total upside from recent levels over the next 1.9 years.
Over the next year, results are likely shaped by Sherwin-Williams’ ability to sustain pricing discipline as volume trends stabilize across residential repaint and commercial coatings markets.
Continued mix shift toward company-owned stores and higher-margin architectural coatings supports margin resilience even if raw material costs fluctuate.
Efficiency gains from distribution optimization and disciplined cost control help protect profitability as demand normalizes. Infrastructure-related maintenance spending and professional contractor activity provide a steadier revenue base than new construction alone.
At current levels, Sherwin-Williams appears fairly valued, with future performance driven by execution, pricing power, and margin stability rather than a near-term valuation reset.
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