Key Stats for GE Vernova Stock
- Current Price: $909.41
- Target Price (Mid): $2,766.51
- Street Target: $867.55
- Potential Total Return: +204.2%
- Annualized IRR: 26.20% / year
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What Happened?
There are very few industrial stocks that have done what GE Vernova (GEV) has done.
Shares are up approximately 200% over the past year, up roughly 35% since January 1, and this week they hit a new 52-week high of $948.38.
The stock now trades above the Street’s mean analyst target of $867.55, meaning the average analyst is modeling a small decline from here.
That gap between price and consensus is the central tension GEV investors are navigating right now.
Two catalysts converged this week to push the stock to record levels.
On March 23, Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $817 to $960, keeping its Overweight rating, citing stronger turbine pricing and utility plans to build gas capacity well past 2030.
That same day, GE Vernova’s addition to the S&P 100 took effect, forcing index funds to buy shares at the open and sending the stock up 7.2% in a single session.
CEO Scott Strazik had set the stage ten days earlier, presenting at the Bank of America Global Industrials Conference in London on March 18.
On Q1 2026 gas power orders, Strazik told the audience: “The first quarter of 2026 will likely land somewhere between 12 and 24 gigawatts”, compared to just 8 gigawatts in Q1 2025.
That kind of forward signal, before Q1 results are even reported (the earnings call is scheduled for April 22), explains why institutional buyers keep adding despite a price above consensus.
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Is GE Vernova Undervalued Today?
GE Vernova ended 2025 with $150 billion in total backlog: roughly $85 billion in services and $65 billion in equipment.
The services half is the more durable business, tied to a fleet of approximately 7,000 installed gas turbines, the world’s largest, whose customers generate roughly 25% of the world’s electricity.
That installed base creates a recurring maintenance and upgrade obligation that competitors cannot quickly replicate.
The equipment backlog is where the margin story lives.
In 2025, GE Vernova added $8 billion of margin dollars into its equipment backlog, meaning new contracts carry margins averaging 6 percentage points higher than contracts already in production.
That is what makes the path from management’s adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.5% in 2025 to a target of 20% by 2028 unusually credible for an industrial company; the margin expansion is already embedded in signed contracts.
The premium is real and must be acknowledged.
GEV trades at 41.47x NTM EV/EBITDA. Schneider Electric trades at 16.50x on the same metric, Siemens Energy at 17.72x, and ABB at 19.63x.
GEV’s multiple is roughly 2.5 times the peer median.
Whether that premium is justified comes down to one argument: no other electrical equipment company combines a sold-out gas turbine order book through 2028, a $30 billion electrification backlog that management expects to double by 2028, and a pipeline for HVDC (high-voltage direct current, used for long-distance power transmission) projects in a global market estimated at $100 billion to $150 billion, where only three credible players can execute at scale.
The bear case is not that the business is weak.
It is that the valuation leaves no room for error.
The wind segment continues to drag, with soft North American onshore equipment volume and the Vineyard Wind and Dogger Bank offshore projects only now reaching installation completion after years of delays.
These are manageable against the scale of the gas and electrification opportunity, but a stock at 41x forward EBITDA needs clean execution across every front simultaneously.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $909.41
- Target Price (Mid): $2,766.51
- Potential Total Return: +204.2%
- Annualized IRR: 26.20% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for GE Vernova stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid-case model uses a 10.6% revenue CAGR (compound annual growth rate) through 12/31/30. The two primary growth drivers are gas power equipment revenue accelerating as the 83 gigawatts currently on contract convert to shipments from 2027 onward, and the electrification segment scaling as HVDC project wins build toward management’s $60 billion backlog target by 2028. The margin driver is the flow-through of higher-priced backlog contracts into the income statement, pushing net income margins toward 16.7%. The primary risk is factory execution: GE Vernova must demonstrate an annualized output run rate of 20 gigawatts per year from its Greenville, South Carolina facility by Q3 2026, the single most important near-term proof point for the entire margin thesis.
On the upside, the high-case model points to $5,412.90 per share and a 495.2% total return by 12/31/30. On the downside, margin compression from wind losses or a demand pause in electrification could limit returns to the low-case scenario of $3,098.06, which still represents a 240.7% total return from the model entry price.
Conclusion: Watch one number at the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22: gas power gigawatts contracted in the quarter. Strazik guided for 12 to 24 gigawatts. A result at or above 18 gigawatts keeps the full-year backlog trajectory toward $200 billion intact and supports the premium valuation. A result of 12 gigawatts or less gives bears their first real opening.
GE Vernova is not a cheap stock. It is the dominant incumbent in an oligopolistic market where every new heavy-duty gas turbine project requires either GEV’s or Siemens Energy’s equipment, and GEV is sold out through 2028. At the model entry price of $909.41, the market has priced in much of that reality. The TIKR mid-case model suggests it has not priced in all of it.
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Should You Invest in GE Vernova?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up GE Vernova, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track GE Vernova alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
