Key Stats for Netflix Stock
- Current Price: $90.92
- Target Price (Mid): $183.67
- Street Target: $113.21
- Potential Total Return: +102%
- Annualized IRR: 12.10% / year
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What Happened?
Netflix (NFLX) is sitting about 30% below its June 2025 peak, and investors are split on what comes next.
Bulls see a company with $9.5 billion in annual free cash flow, a doubling ads business, and a resumed buyback program. Bears point to slowing engagement growth, a stronger YouTube on TV screens, and a newly combined Paramount-Warner rival forming in the background.
The question the market is asking: does proven pricing power at this scale justify paying up after a 30% decline?
On March 26, Netflix raised prices across all U.S. subscription tiers for the second time in just over a year.
The Standard plan is now $19.99 per month, up from $17.99. Premium rose to $26.99 from $24.99. Even the ad-supported tier went up $1 to $8.99. The stock gained 1.13% on the day, bucking a broader market that fell 1.74%.
The next morning, shares dipped 1.8% as some analysts raised concerns about consumer fatigue.
JPMorgan quickly pushed back, estimating the hike could add $1.7 billion in annualized revenue with minimal churn risk. Oppenheimer raised its price target to $135 from $125 the same day, keeping an Outperform rating.
CFO Spencer Neumann had signaled this confidence three weeks earlier.
At the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference 2026 on March 4, he said the company would keep doing what it has always done: “deliver more and more value to members around the world and then occasionally price into that value.” That is not a company testing limits.
It is a company with a track record, having expanded operating margins from 10% in 2018 to a guided 31.5% in 2026.
The timing matters too.
The hike came weeks after Netflix walked away from its Warner Bros. bid, pocketed a $2.8 billion breakup fee from Paramount, and resumed share buybacks.
Management is now deploying capital on two fronts at once.
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Is Netflix Undervalued Today?
At $90.92, Netflix trades at 29.00x NTM P/E, meaning next twelve months price-to-earnings, and 23.02x NTM EV/EBITDA, which measures enterprise value relative to operating earnings.
Both are well below the 50.14x NTM P/E and 40.03x NTM EV/EBITDA the stock commanded in June 2025.
Among peers, the valuation context is instructive.
Disney trades at just 9.37x NTM EV/EBITDA, weighed down by linear TV assets and balance sheet complexity. Spotify trades at 25.11x, roughly in line with Netflix, despite generating far less free cash flow and operating a much earlier-stage ad business.
On that basis, Netflix’s current 23.02x looks like a discount to its own history rather than a fair reflection of where the business is headed.
The bear case centers on engagement.
Neumann acknowledged at Morgan Stanley that viewing hours per member household are declining, partly because new subscriber growth is coming from markets like Japan, where households watch about half to two-thirds of what a U.S. household watches.
Bears argue this also reflects growing competition from YouTube on TV screens. According to Deloitte’s 2026 Digital Media Trends report, U.S. households spent an average of $69 per month on streaming in 2025, flat from the year before, even as prices kept rising.
That ceiling is real, and the March hike tests it directly.
The bull case rests on three things still scaling.
Ad revenue is expected to roughly double from $1.5 billion in 2025 to $3 billion in 2026, and Netflix is only in its first full year running its own ad tech stack, meaning the proprietary advertising technology platform it built in-house.
The price hike adds a potential $1.7 billion in annualized revenue, per JPMorgan. And with the buyback running and $9.5 billion in annual free cash flow, the company is returning capital while trading 30% off its high.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $90.92
- Target Price (Mid): $183.67
- Potential Total Return: +102%
- Annualized IRR: 12.10% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Netflix stock (It’s free!) >>>
The mid case targets $183.67 by December 31, 2030, a +102% total return at 12.10% annualized. Two things drive it. First, a 9.2% revenue CAGR, fueled by ad revenue scaling toward $6 billion by 2030 and continued membership and pricing growth in underpenetrated markets across Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and EMEA. Second, a 34.5% net income margin, up from 24.3% today, driven by operating leverage as revenue scales past $50 billion and the high-margin ad mix grows. Netflix has averaged over 2 percentage points of margin expansion per year for five years. The path to 34.5% asks that trend to continue.
The bull case hits $312.82 by 2030, a 244.1% total return, if ad revenue outperforms and international subscriber growth accelerates. The bear case lands at $191.39, still a 110.5% return, if pricing power softens and revenue growth slows toward the low end of guidance.
Conclusion: Watch ad revenue at the April 16 Q1 2026 earnings report. If it annualizes at $750 million or better for the quarter, the path to $3 billion for the year is intact, and the doubling thesis gets its first real validation.
A company generating $9.5 billion in annual free cash flow, raising prices from a position of low churn and high satisfaction, with less than 50% penetration of its addressable market, is not a distressed stock. The March 26 hike was a signal, not a gamble.
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Should You Invest in Netflix?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Netflix, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Netflix alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
