Key Stats for SoFi Technologies Stock
- Current Price: $16.00
- Model Entry Price: $18.36
- Target Price (Mid): ~$43
- Street Target: ~$23
- Potential Total Return (from model entry): ~132%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
- Q1 2026 Earnings Reaction: -12.88% (April 29, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: -52.96% (March 30, 2026)
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What Happened?
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) just posted its best quarter in company history, and investors sold the stock 13% lower. That gap captures everything about SoFi in 2026: a business breaking records while the stock keeps falling.
The Q1 numbers were hard to argue with. Adjusted net revenue reached $1.1 billion, up 41% year over year, beating the $1.05 billion consensus. Net income more than doubled to $167 million. Adjusted EBITDA climbed 62% to $340 million at a 31% margin.
Loan originations hit a record $12.2 billion. SoFi added a record 1.1 million new members in the quarter, bringing total membership to 14.7 million. CEO Anthony Noto described it on the earnings call as the company’s “18th consecutive quarter of the Rule of 40 with a score of 72%, reflecting 41% revenue growth and 31% EBITDA margins.”
Three things drove the sell-off. The Technology Platform segment, which houses Galileo (SoFi’s banking-as-a-service infrastructure), posted revenue of just $75 million after the exit of a large customer at year-end. EPS of $0.12 came in exactly in line with consensus, ending a streak of headline beats. And management reaffirmed rather than raised its full-year guidance of approximately $4.655 billion in revenue and $0.60 in EPS.
For a stock that has faced a short-seller report from Muddy Waters Research in March 2026 alleging accounting irregularities (which SoFi publicly disputed, calling the claims “factually inaccurate and misleading,” and said it may pursue legal action), an unchanged guide was not the reassurance the market needed.
The sell-off arrives with SOFI already down roughly 30% year to date, following a max drawdown of 52.96% from its 52-week high of $32.73 to a closing low on March 30, 2026.
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Is SoFi Technologies Undervalued Today?
Start with what matters most to bears: credit quality. SoFi’s personal loan borrowers carry a weighted average FICO score of 745 and a weighted average income of $154,000. The annualized net charge-off rate on personal loans was 4.4% in Q1, flat versus last quarter and down roughly 40 basis points from a year ago.
CFO Chris Lapointe confirmed on the call that the data continues to support SoFi’s 7% to 8% net cumulative loss assumption, with recent vintages tracking well below that threshold. Deposits grew to $40.2 billion, the net interest margin expanded to 5.94%, and tangible book value per share rose 57% year over year to $7.21. With a net cash position of $3.06 billion and a total capital ratio of 21%, well above the regulatory minimum of 10.5%, the balance sheet is not under stress.
The valuation debate sits entirely in the NTM P/E multiple. At the TIKR model entry price of $18.36, SoFi traded at 31x forward earnings. At today’s $16.00, that multiple is lower. For perspective, the TIKR Competitors page shows Ally Financial at around 8x NTM P/E, LendingClub at around 9x, and Upstart Holdings at around 14x. SoFi’s premium reflects its technology platform ambitions rather than pure lending economics. With Galileo revenue under pressure, that premium is harder to defend in the near term.
Galileo’s decline is a customer transition, not a structural break. Noto confirmed 13 new clients began generating platform revenue in Q1 that were not on the platform a year ago, a new partnership with one of the top three U.S. telecom brands is set to launch in 2026, and the medium-term objective is returning the tech platform to 20%-to-25% compounding growth.
SoFi Bank will also migrate to a new modern banking core this summer, which management described as the template for bringing the stack to other institutions, with stablecoin ledgering supported from day one.
The SoFi Plus relaunch on April 1 adds another angle. At $10 per month, Plus offers a 4.5% APY on deposits, a 1% match on crypto purchases, and unlimited sessions with financial planners. Noto said 50% of new Plus subscribers subsequently take out an additional SoFi product, making it a cross-sell engine on top of a direct revenue stream.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $16.00
- Model Entry Price: $18.36
- Target (Mid): ~$43
- Total Return from model entry: ~132%
- IRR: ~20% / year
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The TIKR mid-case was built at an entry price of $18.36 and projects a target of approximately $43 by December 31, 2030, representing around 132% total return and an annualized IRR of approximately 20%. At today’s price of $16.00, the potential return from current levels is higher than the model’s stated figure. The revenue CAGR assumption of approximately 15% is conservative relative to the ~26% two-year forward revenue CAGR consensus currently shown on TIKR.
Two factors support that growth path. First, cross-sell compounding: 43% of new products in Q1 came from existing members, up from 36% a year ago, which builds lifetime value without proportional acquisition cost. Second, the Loan Platform Business, where SoFi earns fee income without retaining credit risk. Three new partners added $3.6 billion in commitments this quarter, and Lapointe confirmed partner demand has exceeded contractual obligations across recent periods.
The margin driver is operating leverage, with net income margins projected to expand toward approximately 19% by 2030 from 15% in Q1 2026. The primary risk is credit deterioration: if personal loan charge-off rates rise materially, fair value marks on the loan portfolio compress and the margin path stalls, putting the multiple closer to the 8-to-10x range that traditional consumer lenders command.
Conclusion
The key metric to watch at the next earnings report is Technology Platform revenue. Management guided to approximately $325 million for the full year 2026, implying sequential recovery from Q1’s $75 million. If that trajectory holds, the Galileo weakness was a one-time transition cost. If it stalls, the premium multiple faces further compression.
SoFi delivered record revenue, record originations, and its tenth consecutive profitable quarter on April 29. The stock fell 13% because Galileo is in transition and the guide didn’t move higher. The credit book is clean, the balance sheet is strong, and the TIKR mid-case target of approximately $43 looks more compelling today at $16.00 than it did at the model’s $18.36 entry price.
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Should You Invest in SoFi Technologies?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up SoFi Technologies, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
