Key Stats for The Trade Desk Stock
- Current Price: $12.08
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Street Target: ~$14
- Potential Total Return: ~118%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
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What Happened?
The Trade Desk (TTD) sets its revenue prévisions as a floor, and until Q4 2024, it had never missed one. It has now missed twice in seven quarters. In Q2 2026, revenue of $715.06 million landed $34.94 million below a $750 million floor, and shares fell 21.9% on August 7, the session after the report. They closed at $12.08 on October 9, down 68.2% in 2026. The next floor, in the company’s investor relations materials, is $650 million for Q3.
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The CFO Won’t Call the $650 Million Floor Conservative
Between the two misses, revenue cleared the floor in five straight quarters, by about $7 million to $41 million. Analysts have stopped counting on that margin. The 32 analysts TIKR tracks average $651.44 million for Q3, about 12% below the $739.43 million of Q3 2025. Separately, 28 analysts expect adjusted EBITDA of $160.81 million, against guidance of about $160 million.
Chief Financial Officer Nate Olmstead, who joined in July, said on the August 6 call that there was “really no change in the approach to guidance.” He added that “visibility is somewhat more limited than it has been in recent history,” and that “in general, we don’t think that guidance should really be considered conservative or aggressive.”
Past floors left room for a beat. This one comes without that promise.
Q2’s 3% growth also included political spending tied to the U.S. midterm elections, which Olmstead did not size. The guided Q3 decline lands during the campaign season ahead of the November 3 vote.
Green Is Betting Value Beats a Cheaper Fee
CEO and Co-Founder Jeff Green blamed Q2 on macro pressure at some of the largest brands and on his own team’s execution. Some investors who sold pointed to competition instead. Vision Capital, which exited the stock in Q3, wrote that Amazon’s (AMZN) aggressive introductory pricing on its ad-buying platform has pulled advertisers away.
Green says his take rate has stayed within a few points of the same level for a decade, rising in five of the past 10 years and falling in five. He said the company will always consider pricing changes, but doesn’t expect the net rate to change dramatically.
In a hypothetical, he argued that an 8% fee spent objectively can buy better media than a 4% fee bundled with a rival’s own inventory, so $1.08 against $1.04 per impression isn’t automatically the worst deal.
The pressure is uneven. Olmstead named food and drink, and home and garden, as the pressured verticals. He listed medical, health, automotive, and travel among those growing strongly, though he said tariffs are holding automotive back.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $12.08
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Potential Total Return: ~118%
- Annualized IRR: ~20% / year
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The mid case on the model card reaches around $26 by December 31, 2030. That is about 118% total return, or about 20% a year over 4.2 years, and nearly twice the Street’s $13.57 mean target.
For context, analysts expect 2030 normalized EPS of $1.27, below 2025’s $1.77, on 2030 revenue of around $2.97 billion against 2025’s $2,896.28 million. Shares trade at 13.11x NTM P/E. Net cash of $1,051.22 million as of June 30 equals about 18% of the $5,711.36 million market cap.
Upside comes if Q3 clears the floor and Q4 guidance tops consensus. Downside is the Street’s path: revenue down about 5% in both 2026 and 2027, with normalized net income margins near 20%, down from 30.1% in 2025.
Conclusion
On October 19, shareholders vote at a special meeting on cutting the strike price of up to 15,582,540 eligible options to that day’s closing price. Current executive officers hold about 3.19 million of them, including about 1.62 million for Green, and the proxy states the reset may benefit executives. The board says it restores retention value. The old strike returns if a holder exercises within six months, or leaves within six months other than through termination without cause.
The Q3 report is expected on November 5 after the close, though the company has not confirmed the date. Revenue at or above $650 million would avoid a third miss. The bigger number is Q4 guidance against the Street’s $691.76 million, which already assumes about an 18% decline.
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So what is The Trade Desk stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
