Key Stats for Warby Parker Stock
- Current Price: $26.27
- Target Price (Mid): ~$83
- Street Target: ~$30
- Potential Total Return: ~217%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
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What Happened?
Warby Parker (WRBY) jumped 12.51% on September 24, 2026, closing at $26.27. The jump came during Meta Connect, where Meta unveiled new smart glasses, a category Warby Parker plans to enter later in 2026 with Google and Samsung.
Even after the jump, shares closed 13.41% below their highest close of the past year. Management’s September 15 remarks at the Goldman Sachs Global Consumer and Retail Conference, read alongside the company’s investor relations materials, suggest the stock’s next move depends less on this year’s margin than on what replaces it in 2027.
Warby Parker Won’t Call Its 12.2% Margin a Baseline Yet
Asked whether this year’s guided 12.2% adjusted EBITDA margin is the right base for future expansion, CFO Adrian Mitchell did not commit. “In this investment year, and a year that also has tariffs, it’s difficult to compare to last year, and it’s also difficult to compare to next year,” he said, adding that the 2027 picture comes early in 2027.
The $117 million to $119 million guide includes a $14.4 million tariff refund, which the company’s second-quarter release says offsets strategic investments ahead of the Intelligent Eyewear launch.
The refund does not recur in 2027, but Mitchell said next year also drops this year’s launch spending, bringing “the entire year of Intelligent Eyewear on a run-rate basis without the investments that we’ve had this year.” “Net-net, we would expect more tailwinds,” he said, which leaves 2027 margins resting on glasses revenue that the 2026 guide excludes.
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Warby Parker’s Second Half Must Accelerate in a Category Losing Units
Hitting the full-year revenue guide of $959 million to $976 million requires second-half growth of roughly 11% to 15%, against 9.8% in the second quarter. Asked about that acceleration, Co-Founder and Co-CEO Neil Blumenthal said, “The biggest piece is we have easier comps, to be honest.”
The category offers little help. Blumenthal said The Vision Council’s second-quarter report showed a weaker quarter than the first, adding that where the category is growing, “it’s really driven by price.”
Management describes several underused levers. Insurance customers make up a mid-teens percentage of Warby Parker’s base, against about two-thirds of the category, and in-network coverage has grown to 35 million lives from 32 million earlier in 2026. Blumenthal also said the average order value is the highest it has ever been.
Warby Parker’s Premium Over Optical Chains Rests on the Glasses
Shares trade at 54.25 times NTM P/E and 24.67 times NTM EV/EBITDA, while Mitchell puts the core business’s long-term algorithm at “low to mid-teens growth.” National Vision (EYE) trades at 8.84 times NTM EBITDA and Fielmann at 6.35 times, while Lenskart (43.38 times) and Kits Eyecare (31.87 times) trade higher.
Management says Warby Parker keeps taking share from larger, pricier optical chains, which supports a premium over National Vision and Fielmann. Holding the rest of that premium requires Intelligent Eyewear to add growth the core algorithm does not.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $26.27
- Target Price (Mid): ~$83
- Potential Total Return: ~217%
- Annualized IRR: ~31% / year
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TIKR’s mid case points to around $83 per share by December 31, 2030, a scenario rather than a forecast. Its mid-case inputs, which TIKR displays over a 2025 to 2035 forecast window, assume around 21% annual revenue growth, net margins near 7%, and a roughly steady P/E. That growth sits well above the Street’s ~14% forward two-year revenue CAGR, so the model assumes Intelligent Eyewear works.
Revenue rides on two drivers: deeper insurance and exam penetration in existing stores, and Intelligent Eyewear sold through the same store fleet. The margin driver is Mitchell’s stated “path to 20%” EBITDA margin. He expects smart-frame margins to resemble consumer electronics, but said “the dollar flow-through is actually quite exciting.”
The primary risk is pricing, since Meta’s AI glasses now start at $249 for its Adventurer frames, and Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3 starts at $449. If Intelligent Eyewear sales show up in holiday-quarter results and the 2027 framework confirms the margin path, the mid case becomes more plausible; if growth settles near the Street’s ~14% pace, 54 times forward earnings leaves little cushion. The Street’s ~$30 mean price target from 13 analysts sits far below the model, though 10 of 14 ratings are Buy or Outperform.
Conclusion
Warby Parker’s next checkpoint is its third-quarter report; the prior-year report came on November 6, 2025. A good print means revenue at or above the ~$245 million consensus (around 11% growth), EBITDA near ~$27 million, and the full-year guide intact. Fourth-quarter consensus already calls for around 17% growth, so any third-quarter shortfall pushes more of the year onto the holiday quarter.
Blumenthal has promised “the biggest marketing launch that Warby has ever done” but gave no sales target, saying “the biggest thing that we’ll be looking at internally is Net Promoter Score.” Until the glasses carry a price that can be set against Meta’s lineup, the September 24 rally rests on a product that had not launched as of management’s September 15 remarks.
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Should You Invest in Warby Parker?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
