Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Current Price: $35.99
- Target Price (Mid): ~$73
- Street Target: ~$47
- Potential Total Return: ~102%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Nike (NKE) reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results after the close on Thursday, October 1, and one promise from last quarter’s call decides how the stock reacts. In June, management said gross margin would expand beginning in Q1 and that earnings would stay flattish through the first half. Thursday is when that gets graded, and it gets graded from a rough position: shares closed at $35.99 on September 24, near a 52-week low of $35.35 and, by several market data providers, the lowest level in roughly 12 years.
The stakes rose in the days before the print for reasons that have nothing to do with the numbers. On September 18, Kylian Mbappé left Nike for Swiss brand On after nearly two decades, and on September 21, Nike was removed from the S&P 100. Neither moves a single line of Thursday’s income statement. Both sharpen the question the print has to answer.
The Margin Promise That Comes Due Thursday
CFO Matt Friend told investors in June to expect earnings “flattish” from the fourth quarter through the first half of fiscal 2027, excluding the one-time tariff recovery, and said the company now expected “gross margin expansion earlier beginning in Q1,” pulled forward from a prior Q2 forecast.
Consensus points to revenue near $11.3 billion, down roughly 3% from the $11.7 billion Nike reported a year earlier, with EPS around $0.44 versus $0.49 in last year’s Q1, per sell-side estimates compiled by Benzinga. The weakness is regional and familiar: North America grew in Q4 while Greater China fell 17% and EMEA fell 6%, and analysts model China down again near $1.3 billion this quarter.
Excluding the tariff benefit, Q4 gross margin was 40.2%, down just 10 basis points year over year, and Friend flagged four straight quarters of sequential improvement from cleaner North America discounting. TIKR data shows LTM gross margin at 43.2%, with management’s August-quarter guidance set at a floor of 42.2%. If Q1 margin expands year over year as promised, the flattish-earnings math holds even with soft revenue. If it slips, the guide is in question one quarter in. Nike has topped EPS consensus across every quarter TIKR shows in its recent beats-and-misses history, so a headline beat is close to priced in. The June print is the warning: Nike beat by a wide margin, the stock rose 4.9% on the day, and the debate still moved straight to guidance.
See historical and forward estimates for Nike stock (It’s free!) >>>
A Football Halo That Just Lost Its Face
Management is leaning on sport to carry the brand while Sportswear resets, and football is the centerpiece. Elliott Hill said in June that the new Mercurial became “the fastest-selling 24-hour launch for cleated footwear in the history of NIKE Direct,” and Stifel estimates the World Cup could add roughly $300 million to Q1 revenue.
The problem is that the halo lost its most marketable face. Per CNBC, Nike chose not to renew Mbappé as his contract expired, judging that it had captured the prime of his career, and On is now using him to launch its first football division alongside Thierry Henry. He still wears the Swoosh for France, since Nike supplies the national kit, so this is a lost endorsement, not a lost customer. But a brand that barely existed in football just took Nike’s biggest name in the sport, Nike, to prove its turnaround works.
The Sell Side Is Cutting Into the Print
In September alone, Stifel went to $40, UBS to $42, Citigroup to $39, and Morgan Stanley reinstated Underweight at $31, while Oppenheimer kept Outperform but cut to $52. TIKR shows the Street mean target near $47, down from above $80 in late 2025, with the pool now at 9 buys, 1 outperform, 27 holds, 1 no opinion, 2 underperforms, and 3 sells. UBS and BMO both warned Nike may reset its full-year outlook, either Thursday or at the November 16 to 17 Investor Day.
A soft print the market has braced for can pass; a walk-back of the margin timing or a lower full-year framing would not. Nike trades near 21x forward price-to-earnings, above the apparel and luxury median near 12x and a recovering adidas at 14x, but below premium names like Hermès at 29x. That premium is the market paying for brand durability and a margin recovery it has not yet seen delivered.
See how Nike performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $35.99
- Target Price (Mid): ~$73
- Potential Total Return: ~102%
- Annualized IRR: ~16% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Nike stock (It’s free!) >>>
The two revenue drivers are the performance categories already working, led by Running, with five straight quarters of double-digit growth and roughly $1 billion added, plus football momentum from the World Cup cycle, alongside a Greater China stabilization as the marketplace reset clears aged inventory. Friend’s framing there is worth holding onto: he expects “profitability will bottom before sales” in China, which is the sequence the model leans on. The margin driver is the structural supply-chain work, fewer facilities and changed product flow, with costs absorbed in fiscal 2026 that are meant to lift margin toward the mid case’s roughly 8% net income margin, up from the 7% range Nike posted last year.
The primary risk is that Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear, together accounting for about half of revenue, keep falling longer than guided; Hill said both stay negative this year with improvement only in the back half. The upside: margin recovers faster than the top line and the stock re-rates off a depressed multiple. The downside: a full-year reset pushes recovery out another year, and the multiple compresses further.
Conclusion
Watch gross margin above everything else. A year-over-year expansion in Q1, as management promised in June, keeps the flattish-earnings guide intact and hands a beaten-down stock a fact to stand on. A margin that slips, or a full-year outlook reset lower, says the recovery is slower than the timeline management sold three months ago. Consensus markers are revenue near $11.3 billion and EPS near $0.44, but the quarter will be read through the guide. Results hit after the close on October 1, with the call at 2:00 p.m. Pacific, and the November 16 Investor Day is the second act if this print raises more questions than it answers.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in Nike?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Nike, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Nike alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
