Key Takeaways:
- Record Users: Remitly crossed 10 million quarterly active customers for the first time, with record new customer additions driving the milestone.
- Price Projection: Based on current assumptions, RELY stock could reach $27 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 32% from the current price of $20.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 13% annual growth over the next 2.3 years.
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Remitly (RELY) delivered a strong Q2 in 2026, with revenue of $495 million, up 20% year-over-year and well above guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $115 million, a 23% margin, also beating expectations.
CEO Sebastian Gunningham, six months into the role, credited the results to strategy, competitive position, and cost discipline working together.
- Send volume grew 27% to $23.5 billion, while send volume per active customer hit a record $2,300, up 6% year-over-year.
- G&A expense declined 11% year-over-year, the company’s first-ever year-over-year decline as a public company, helped by AI-driven productivity gains.
- Free cash flow nearly tripled year-over-year to over $130 million.
Despite the strong quarter, the stock trades well below prior highs, leaving room for upside if execution continues.
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What the Model Says for Remitly Stock
Remitly’s core business, cross-border money transfers, remains the engine, but the company is building what it calls “growth accelerators”: high-value senders, a business platform, receiver-focused products, and new spend/save/borrow tools.
Together these are expected to grow from around 5% of revenue this year to over 10% by 2028.
The high-value sender segment, customers sending $5,000 or more per transaction, grew volume 37% year-over-year.
The quarter included Remitly’s first $300,000 transfer and its first customer to send over $1 million in a single quarter.
Remitly Business also picked up pace, with over 25,000 business users and sequential growth accelerating in both volume and revenue.
The company just launched the Remitly Global Card, a combined send-spend-save-borrow product aimed at deepening relationships with both senders and the 30 million-plus receivers already on the platform.
Management sees this as the next phase of turning Remitly from a remittance company into a broader financial platform for underserved global communities.
AI is also reshaping the cost side of the business.
Technology and development expense grew in the mid-single digits, well below revenue growth, while transaction loss rates improved thanks to AI-driven fraud detection.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Remitly stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 20%
This is more conservative than Remitly’s 2025 full-year growth of 29.4% and three-year growth of 35.8%.
It reflects the company’s own full-year guidance of 21% to 22% growth, while accounting for a tougher year-ago comparison in Q4 tied to an unusually strong holiday season.
2. Operating margins: 12.5%
Remitly’s 2025 full-year operating margin sits at 4.7%, a sharp improvement from negative margins just a few years ago.
The model assumes continued expansion, supported by management’s guidance for full-year adjusted EBITDA margin near 21%, up more than 400 basis points year over year, driven largely by AI-related efficiency gains across G&A and technology spending.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 13.3x
Remitly trades at 13.3x forward earnings today, below its one-year average of 15.8x but above its three-year average of 6.5x, which reflects the period when the company wasn’t yet consistently profitable.
The model holds the multiple flat at current levels, treating it as fairly valued rather than assuming further re-rating.
Based on these inputs, TIKR’s model projects RELY could reach $27 per share by the end of 2028, a 32% total return, or about 13% annualized.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Remitly operates in a competitive global payments market where currency swings and regulatory shifts can quickly move results. Here’s how RELY stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 16% and net income margins reach 12.8%, investors could still see a 33% total return, or 6.9% annually.
- Mid Case: With 17.7% growth and 13.6% margins, the total return comes to 76.1%, or 14.2% annually.
- High Case: If growth accelerates to 19.5% with margins at 14.3%, returns could hit 129.2% total, or 21.4% annually.
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The range largely comes down to how quickly Remitly’s newer bets, the Global Card, receiver products, and high-value senders, scale into meaningful revenue contributors alongside the core remittance business.
How Much Upside Does Remitly Global Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
