Key Takeaways:
- Record Backlog: Quanta closed Q2 with a record $53 billion backlog, and the biggest projects haven’t even hit the books yet.
- Price Projection: Based on current assumptions, PWR stock could reach $856 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 39% from the current price of $616.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 15% annual growth over the next 2.3 years.
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Quanta Services (PWR) delivered a standout Q2 in 2026, beating expectations across the board and raising full-year guidance once again.
Revenue came in at $9.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA hit $1.1 billion, and adjusted EPS reached $4.24. Free cash flow was strong too, helped by better contract terms across the business.
CEO Duke Austin called it a broad-based quarter, not a one-off.
- Quanta now expects full-year 2026 revenue between $39.3 billion and $39.7 billion, up from prior guidance.
- The company closed four acquisitions in July (Phalcon, Enerfab, Percheron and PSD) for roughly $1.24 billion upfront, adding self-perform capacity in electrical, mechanical and fabrication work.
- Debt-to-EBITDA improved to 1.7x from 1.95x at the end of 2025, even after the acquisitions, and liquidity stands near $2.8 billion.
Despite the run-up, shares still trade at levels that leave room for further gains, according to TIKR’s model.
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What the Model Says for Quanta Services Stock
Quanta’s growth story rests on two large, still-early markets: traditional utility transmission and generation work, and the newer technology and data center segment, which now makes up 15% to 20% of revenue.
Management has been clear that the largest projects, big transmission corridors and generation buildouts, aren’t in backlog yet.
Most of that work sits in engineering today and should start showing up through 2027 and beyond, meaning the current backlog understates what’s coming.
The technology side is growing even faster.
Quanta’s self-perform model, where craft-skilled labor handles roughly 80% to 85% of work directly, gives it an edge with hyperscalers and utilities that need certainty on cost and timing.
Margins have room to expand too.
Management pointed to synergies from recent acquisitions and better training efficiency as reasons the electric segment could push toward its historical 10% to 12% ceiling over time.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Quanta Services stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 20.5%
This matches Quanta’s five-year average growth rate.
The company’s own guidance points in this direction too, with 2026 revenue expected to grow well into the double digits as acquisitions and organic demand both contribute.
Backlog additions from data centers and utility programs support this pace continuing.
2. Operating margins: 7.1%
Quanta’s 2025 operating margin sits at 5.6%, roughly in line with its five-year average.
The model assumes some expansion from here, supported by management’s comments on margin upside in both the electric and underground segments as acquisitions and training efficiencies kick in.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 33.1x
Quanta currently trades near 33.6x forward earnings.
That’s below its one-year average of 41.3x but above its five-year average of 28.5x.
The model assumes a modest step down to 33.1x, reflecting a stock that has re-rated sharply but could still see some multiple compression as growth normalizes.
Based on these inputs, TIKR’s model projects PWR could reach $856 per share by the end of 2028, a 39% total return, or about 15% annualized.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Quanta operates in a business with long project cycles and lumpy bookings, so outcomes can vary widely depending on execution and demand. Here’s how Quanta Services stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 14.2% and margins reach 6.5%, investors could still see a 25.1% total return, or 5.4% annually.
- Mid Case: With 15.8% growth and 7.1% margins, the total return comes to 65.3%, or 12.4% annually.
- High Case: If growth accelerates to 17.3% with margins at 7.6%, returns could hit 111.8% total, or 19.1% annually.
See what analysts think about PWR stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>
The spread reflects how much of Quanta’s future depends on the pace at which large transmission, generation, and data center projects move from engineering into actual backlog and billings over the next several years.
How Much Upside Does Quanta Services Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
