Key Takeaways:
- AI Glasses Launching This Fall: Warby Parker is weeks away from unveiling its first Intelligent Eyewear collection, with deliveries on track for the holidays.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, WRBY stock could reach $45 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 85% from the current price of $24.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 31% annualized growth over the next 2.3 years.
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Warby Parker (WRBY) generated $236 million in revenue in Q2 of 2026, up about 10% year over year.
Adjusted EBITDA came in around $33 million, a 14% margin, helped by an $11.8 million tariff refund the company used to fund investments ahead of its AI glasses launch.
Co-CEO Neil Blumenthal said the company is in the “home stretch” after years of work building toward Intelligent Eyewear, its AI-powered glasses developed with Google and Samsung.
The product delivers about 9 hours of battery life and runs on Google’s Gemini AI, letting wearers capture moments, get directions, and ask questions hands-free.
Retail growth outpaced e-commerce this quarter, with 15 new stores opened, but active customer growth of 4.1% came in below management’s expectations.
Traffic across the eyewear category remains soft industry-wide.
WRBY trades around $24 today, and investors are waiting to see whether the AI glasses launch this fall can reignite customer growth.
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What the Model Says for Warby Parker Stock
Warby Parker sells prescription glasses and contacts through its own stores and online, with in-house optical labs and a network of doctors offering eye exams.
The company now operates 352 stores across 43 states, putting nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population within 30 minutes of a location.
Two core growth levers are still underpenetrated.
Eye exams make up just 7% of revenue today, but management believes that could reach 15-20% over time based on industry norms, and roughly half of existing customers still don’t know Warby Parker offers exams.
Insurance is another opportunity: in-network business grew over 20% year over year, and a new tool that helps customers submit out-of-network claims has already surpassed in-network in penetration.
The AI glasses launch is the bigger swing factor.
Management has deliberately excluded any revenue benefit from Intelligent Eyewear in its current guidance, meaning any contribution this fall would be pure upside.
The company’s omnichannel model, letting customers try on glasses in person and get expert guidance, is seen as a real advantage over pure consumer-electronics competitors trying to sell smart glasses online only.
Using a forecast of 19.9% annual revenue growth and 7.4% operating margins, our model projects the stock could climb to $45 within 2.3 years. This assumes a 50.2x price-to-earnings multiple, in line with WRBY’s current level.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for Warby Parker stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 19.9%
Warby Parker grew revenue 13.0% over the past year, below its five-year average of 17.2%.
Full-year 2026 guidance calls for 10-12% growth, but that excludes any contribution from Intelligent Eyewear.
We’re assuming growth accelerates toward 20% as the AI glasses launch, eye exam expansion, and insurance penetration all contribute starting later this year and into 2027.
2. Operating margins: 7.4%
Trailing twelve-month operating margin sits at 4.7%, already above the three- and five-year averages, which were negative or near breakeven.
Management expects gross margin expansion from product mix and the new paid protection program, plus operating leverage as fixed costs like retail occupancy and doctor salaries get spread across more revenue, including from higher-priced Intelligent Eyewear units.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 50.2x
Warby Parker currently trades at 50.2x forward earnings, well below its three-year average of 139.4x.
We’re holding the multiple roughly flat rather than assuming further expansion, since the market will likely want to see actual Intelligent Eyewear sales data before paying a premium for a still-unproven product category.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Consumer eyewear companies entering a brand-new product category can see very different outcomes depending on execution and consumer reception. Here’s how Warby Parker stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth settles at 20.7% and net income margins come in at 6.3%, investors could still see a 148.4% total return, or about 23.6% annually.
- Mid Case: With 23.0% growth and 6.8% margins, we expect a total return of 235.9%, or roughly 32.6% annually.
- High Case: If Intelligent Eyewear demand exceeds expectations and drives a strong halo effect on the core business, revenue growth could reach 25.2% and margins 7.2%, pushing total returns to 340.3% (about 41.2% annually).
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The spread between these outcomes largely depends on how strongly consumers respond to Intelligent Eyewear this holiday season, and whether the product drives meaningful new customer traffic into Warby Parker’s stores rather than just serving existing loyal customers.
How Much Upside Does Warby Parker Stock Have From Here?
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- Operating Margins
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
