Key Stats for General Motors Stock
- Current Price: $80.57
- Target Price (Mid): ~$108
- Street Target (Mean): ~$104
- Potential Total Return: ~35%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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What Happened?
General Motors (GM) closed at $80.57 on Sept. 24, down 3.82% that day and 7.2% for the month to date. No single catalyst explains the slide. It spans a truck-delivery warning from CFO Paul Jacobson, the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike since 2023, a macro-driven selloff on Sept. 18, fears that Chinese automakers could enter the U.S. market, and a Sept. 24 forecast showing GM losing U.S. market share.
On Sept. 23, Jacobson told JPMorgan’s U.S. All Stars Conference that consensus on GM is “generally sort of trapped in the old thinking.” TIKR’s data shows the gap he means: GM’s forward P/E has shrunk about 22% in 2026, even as expected earnings climbed. GM reports third-quarter results on Oct. 20, according to its investor relations materials.
Macro and China Fears Hit Detroit. GM’s Share Slide Is Its Own Problem
At Morgan Stanley’s Laguna Conference in mid-September, Jacobson said the pickup changeover will cut roughly 35,000 truck deliveries and leave the fourth quarter seasonally weaker. On Sept. 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%.
On Sept. 18, GM fell more than 5% to close at $82.20. That erased a 3.6% gain from Sept. 17, the day Lockheed Martin said GM Defense had delivered Patriot missile components 22 days after signing its contract. Benzinga tied the drop to record diesel prices and the highest 10-year Treasury yields since 2007. Ford also fell that day, and no report we found tied that decline to GM-specific news.
Policy added a second worry. President Trump had signaled openness to Chinese automakers building U.S. plants if they employ U.S. workers. On Sept. 18, automakers, dealers and suppliers urged him to keep them out ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s White House visit, which was underway on Sept. 24.
TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli called a U.S. import-policy shift at the summit “very unlikely” and the auto selloff on Chinese entry fears “overdone.” GM’s Sept. 24 decline came the same day a Cox Automotive forecast projected its U.S. sales down 6.2% year to date through Sept. 30, with its market share finishing the quarter at 16.7%, down from 17.4% a year earlier. Cox pointed to buyers shifting toward hybrids, where Asian brands lead, and projected an even steeper decline at Ford. No report tied the stock move to the forecast, but it cuts against Jacobson’s Sept. 23 remark that GM’s “share levels have been consistent.” Jacobson was more guarded, calling it “a hotly debated topic for a long time.”
On the consumer, Jacobson pointed to GM’s own lending data. He said delinquency and default trends at GM Financial, which has a $125 billion balance sheet, have normalized around pre-COVID levels and that “nothing has materially changed.” The same Cox forecast supports the demand side, raising its 2026 U.S. sales outlook to 16.1 million vehicles from 15.8 million.
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GM’s Earnings Estimate Rose 26% in 2026 While Its Multiple Shrank 22%
GM shares were essentially flat in 2026 through Sept. 24, at $80.57 versus $81.32 at the end of 2025. Over the same period, the consensus NTM normalized EPS estimate rose about 26%, from $11.06 to $13.99, and the forward P/E ratio fell from 7.36x to 5.76x. Part of that EPS gain reflects the 12-month window rolling into later, more profitable periods, but investors now pay about 22% less per dollar of expected earnings.
Jacobson’s case for a higher multiple rests on cash. By his count, GM averaged about $3 billion of free cash flow a year in the first five years of the past decade and over $10 billion in the last five. TIKR’s data, on its own definition, shows more than $10 billion in each year from 2022 through 2025, and Jacobson also tied future multiple gains to digital subscriptions and GM Defense.
GM’s 5.76x sits below Ford (F) at 7.13x, Mercedes-Benz at 6.76x, BMW at 7.93x, and Hyundai at 9.29x, but above Volkswagen at 2.72x. Jacobson acknowledged the “historical cyclicality” behind GM’s discount, yet trading below Ford is hard to justify with that cash record.
Management keeps buying stock at that discount. Jacobson estimated GM has retired more than 37% of its shares since 2013 and said it is “retiring shares very, very cheaply at a double-digit free cash flow yield”; TIKR’s NTM levered free cash flow yield is 15.6%. Morningstar estimated that about $3.5 billion of buyback authorization remained after the second quarter, likely to be used within two to three quarters.
Jacobson said cash flow “should be substantially better in ’27 than ’26” because GM will have worked through substantially all of its EV restructuring payments in 2026, and the TIKR consensus has free cash flow rising from about $10.4 billion to about $11.7 billion. At the Laguna conference, though, he called 2027 a “flat spot” for EVs.
Two levers carry the plan. Jacobson put GM’s warranty spending closer to 2% of revenue, versus about 1.2% at Toyota by his estimate, with monthly warranty cash spend starting to trend lower. The new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra will probably begin production with a richer mix, he said, with volume flat until late 2027 and potentially higher in 2028.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $80.57
- Target Price (Mid): ~$108
- Potential Total Return: ~35%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
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TIKR’s mid-case scenario values GM at around $108 by Dec. 31, 2030, a total return of around 35%, or around 7% a year. Its 2025 to 2035 assumptions call for around 1% annual revenue growth, net margins near 7%, and EPS growth around 8% a year, implying buybacks do most of the per-share work.
Pickup pricing and mix plus digital subscriptions drive revenue, while lower warranty costs and fading EV restructuring costs support margins. The primary risk is policy: Yahoo Finance’s summary of TD Cowen’s scenarios noted that Detroit’s multiples could suffer if early limits on Chinese automakers were later lifted.
The model assumes the P/E contracts around 3% a year, which keeps its 2030 target only modestly above the Street’s mean target of about $104, itself 29% above the Sept. 24 close. Analysts carry 13 Buy, 7 Outperform, 4 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell ratings, plus 1 No Opinion.
- Upside: If the forward P/E holds near 6x instead of contracting, returns would beat the mid case.
- Downside: If net margins slip toward GM’s 10-year historical average of 5.6%, much of the EPS growth behind the target disappears.
Conclusion
Oct. 20 is the first checkpoint. Consensus expects adjusted EPS of around $3.60 on around $48.6 billion of revenue, and GM has already raised its 2026 guidance twice. A beat that holds adjusted automotive free cash flow guidance of $9.5 billion to $11.5 billion would support Jacobson’s view that September priced fear rather than fundamentals. A cut would favor the skeptics, and GM’s January outlook for 2027 then becomes the bigger test.
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Should You Invest in General Motors?
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Pull up General Motors, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
