Key Stats for Walmart Stock
- Current Price: $124.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$143
- Street Target: ~$136
- Potential Total Return: ~14%
- Annualized IRR: ~3% / year
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What Happened?
Walmart (WMT) stock is sitting about 7% below its 52-week high of $134.69, and the market is having a genuine debate, not about whether the business is good, but about whether buying it at $125 makes financial sense.
When Walmart reported its fiscal Q4 2026 results on February 19, the numbers were strong. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.74, topping the $0.73 consensus. U.S. e-commerce grew 27%, and adjusted operating income rose 10.5% in constant currency, more than twice the rate of sales growth. The stock still fell 1.51% that day. Management’s fiscal 2027 EPS guidance of $2.75–$2.85 came in below the $2.96 consensus per LSEG, and the market sold the news.
Two more catalysts have followed since.
On April 1, Sam’s Club announced its first membership fee increase since 2022, raising standard membership from $50 to $60 and its Plus tier from $110 to $120, effective May 1.
On April 15, Walmart unveiled a full redesign of Great Value, its flagship private brand found in nine out of 10 U.S. households, its first refresh in over a decade.
Both moves reinforce the same story: Walmart is building recurring revenue and private-label margin with real pricing power.
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Is Walmart Undervalued Today?
At $124.82, WMT trades at 42.78x NTM earnings and 21.58x NTM EV/EBITDA, both near multi-year highs compared to roughly 19x NTM EV/EBITDA a year ago.
That kind of multiple expansion only makes sense if the business is structurally becoming more profitable, not just bigger.
The evidence that it is real. Walmart’s global advertising business grew 46% in fiscal 2026 to $6.4 billion, while membership fees exceeded $4.3 billion for the year. Both lines carry far higher margins than selling groceries, and together they accounted for roughly one-third of Walmart’s operating income in Q4. Sam’s Club’s fee hike from $50 to $60 flows almost entirely to the bottom line.
CFO John David Rainey explained the logic on the earnings call: “We have a combination of profit drivers including automation-related inventory and labor productivity, favorable business mix, and continued expense discipline to support continued investment and to drive faster operating income growth.”
The risk is that this is already priced in. At 43x forward earnings, Walmart isn’t being valued on what it earns today. It’s being valued on a future where advertising and membership keep expanding their share of profits. Any slowdown in that shift, or gross margin pressure from tariffs on general merchandise, gets penalized hard at this multiple.
Management has already pre-guided for lower Q1 operating income growth due to tariff timing, and Maximum Fair Pricing legislation on pharmacy is expected to create a 100 basis point revenue headwind for the full fiscal year.
Of the 41 analysts covering WMT, 30 rate it a Buy, 9 Outperform, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell. The Street’s mean target of ~$136 implies roughly 9% upside from here.
That’s not a cheap stock signal; it’s a fairly priced one.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $124.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$143
- Potential Total Return: ~14%
- Annualized IRR: ~3% / year
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The mid-case assumes around 4% annual revenue growth, driven by continued U.S. e-commerce gains (now in its eighth consecutive quarter above 20% growth at a record 23% of domestic sales) and international momentum from China, Walmex, and Flipkart. The margin driver is the continued mix shift toward advertising, marketplace fees, and membership income. Under those assumptions, the model points to ~$143 by January 31, 2031, around 14% total return, or roughly 3% per year.
The high case, assuming ~5% revenue growth and margins near 3.7%, reaches approximately $209 by January 2031, roughly 68% total return and around 6% annualized. That requires the advertising and membership flywheel to keep compounding at current rates and the P/E multiple to hold. The low case, with revenue growth near 4% and margins stalling, arrives near $140 by January 2031, barely above today’s price over nearly five years.
The central risk across all scenarios: tariff escalation on general merchandise. Walmart sources heavily from Asia, and rapid cost increases without time to reroute supply chains would directly pressure the margins that justify the current multiple.
Conclusion
The next catalyst is Q1 earnings, expected around May 14, 2026. Watch the U.S. gross profit rate, management pre-guided for tariff timing pressure in Q1, and any margin miss at 43x earnings will move the stock. Walmart is executing a genuine transformation. At $124.82, the valuation model says investors are paying full price for it.
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Should You Invest in Walmart?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Walmart, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Walmart alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
