Key Stats for Take-Two Stock
- Current Price: $213.93
- Street Target (Mean): ~$277
- Potential Total Return (Mid): ~99%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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What Happened?
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is down roughly 19% from its 52-week high of $264.79, sitting at $213.93 as investors weigh two competing realities: a company still reporting GAAP losses with two GTA VI delays behind it, and a franchise on the verge of what many analysts expect to be the largest entertainment launch in years.
The tension sharpened this week. On April 14, hacker group ShinyHunters released stolen Rockstar data after Take-Two refused to pay a $200,000 ransom. The documents have not been officially confirmed by Rockstar or Take-Two, but reportedly showed GTA Online generating over $5 billion from Shark Card purchases between 2014 and 2024, with the game still producing over $1 million per day in 2026. The market ignored the security breach entirely.
TTWO gained roughly 2.6%, adding close to $1 billion in market cap, because investors focused on what the data implied: the GTA ecosystem is generating half a billion dollars a year before GTA VI has shipped a single unit.
Chairman and CEO Strauss Zelnick set the tone on the Q3 Fiscal 2026 earnings call on February 3, 2026: “Our execution throughout fiscal 2026 has been extraordinary, and we’re highly confident as we approach fiscal 2027, which promises to be groundbreaking for Take-Two and the entire entertainment industry, led by the November 19 release of Grand Theft Auto VI, with Rockstar’s launch marketing set to begin this summer.”
GTA V has now sold over 225 million units since 2013. The sequel launches into that installed base in seven months.
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Is Take-Two Undervalued Today?
At $213.93, TTWO trades at 25x forward EBITDA and 35x forward earnings, with roughly $836 million in net debt and GAAP losses still on the books.
For comparison, Electronic Arts trades at around 16.6x forward EBITDA with a fully operational live-services business. Take-Two’s premium over EA reflects the market pricing in a future earnings inflection, not current-period parity.
That inflection is what the entire thesis rests on. TIKR consensus estimates project normalized EPS more than doubling from $3.83 in FY2026 to $7.78 in FY2027, driven by a projected 38% revenue surge to $9.23 billion once GTA VI ships.
Free cash flow is expected to swing to approximately $1.44 billion in FY2027 from negative territory in recent years. The underlying business is already moving in that direction: in Q3 FY2026, net bookings hit $1.76 billion, well above the high end of guidance, with recurrent consumer spending, the ongoing revenue from in-game purchases and subscriptions, accounting for 76% of total bookings.
CFO Lainie Goldstein raised full-year operating cash flow guidance to approximately $450 million on the Q3 call, up from approximately $250 million the prior quarter, on a year with no major launch.
The risk is execution. Two GTA VI delays have already cost the stock roughly 7 to 8% each time, and a 25x forward EBITDA multiple provides little cushion if FY2027 guidance disappoints. The bull case does not work without GTA VI delivering and retaining players on a refreshed GTA Online at the scale the leaked revenue data implies is achievable.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $213.93
- Target Price (Mid): ~$425
- Potential Total Return: ~99%
- Annualized IRR: ~19% / year
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The TIKR mid-case targets approximately $425 by March 31, 2030, using a revenue CAGR of around 10%. The two growth drivers are the GTA VI bookings surge in FY2027 and sustained compounding from the mobile and 2K live-service portfolios. Net income margins are expected to expand to approximately 19% over the forecast period as post-launch development costs normalize. The downside scenario: another delay or weak GTA Online retention collapses the earnings trajectory on which the model is built. The high case prices TTWO near $651 by 2030, which requires GTA VI to outperform GTA V’s already exceptional commercial run.
The next hard checkpoint is the May 15, 2026, FY2026 earnings call. President Karl Slatoff confirmed on the Q3 call that management will deliver its initial three-year pipeline for FY2027 through FY2029 at that point. Watch whether FY2027 net bookings guidance meets the $9.23 billion consensus embedded in TIKR estimates. That number will determine whether the gap between $213 and the Street’s ~$277 mean target closes or widens.
Conclusion
GTA VI launches November 19. Marketing begins this summer. A data breach this week, unverified by the company, gave the market a credible picture of how dominant the GTA ecosystem already is without a sequel for over a decade. The stock is 19% below its peak, and on May 15, management will either confirm or undercut the FY2027 earnings case that makes this discount meaningful. If FY2027 guidance meets the $9.23 billion consensus, the re-rating is straightforward. If it doesn’t, there is limited valuation support at current multiples.
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Should You Invest in Take-Two?
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Pull up Take-Two, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
