Key Stats for Simon Property Group Stock
- Current Price: $202.12
- Target Price (Mid): ~$263
- Street Target: ~$209
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
- Earnings Reaction (Q4 2025): +0.80% (1/30/26)
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Retail REIT investors have spent seven weeks digesting a leadership shock, and the verdict so far is cautious confidence. Simon Property Group (SPG) hit a max drawdown of 12.55% on March 24, the day after longtime chairman and CEO David Simon passed away at 64 after a battle with cancer. The stock has since recovered entirely, trading near 52-week highs above $202 heading into today’s Q1 2026 earnings report, the first quarterly print under new CEO Eli Simon.
Bulls say the drawdown was an overreaction. Eli Simon, 38, served as Chief Operating Officer and was the operational architect behind the leasing machine that signed over 17 million square feet of deals in FY2025. Bears say the execution risk is real: he is managing his first full year as CEO while integrating Taubman Realty Group (TRG), navigating the Saks Global bankruptcy, and delivering an active $1.5 billion development pipeline. The key question is whether he can convert the $4 billion shadow pipeline into income on schedule, or whether permitting timelines push the re-rating catalyst toward 2029.
See historical and forward estimates for Simon Property Group stock (It’s free!) >>>
What Eli Simon Said at Citi and Why It Matters More Now
On March 3, less than three weeks before David Simon died, Eli Simon addressed investors at Citi’s Miami Global Property CEO Conference 2026. He was still COO at the time. Those remarks are now effectively his opening statement as CEO, and they contain more forward-looking detail than prior coverage has captured.
On tariffs, he was precise. Out of the roughly 4,500 leases Simon signed in 2025, only four or five fell through because of tariff concerns, and as of early March, that number had not changed. “The leasing pipeline is still very strong. It’s still north of 15% above where it was this time last year,” he said. “So even after 10 or so months of tariff noise.” That is a clean benchmark to test against today’s Q1 numbers.
On the Saks bankruptcy, Simon gave the clearest re-leasing math on record. Simon holds 38 Saks Off Fifth stores, paying $18 million in rent. The vast majority are being rejected through the bankruptcy process. Based on the half already recaptured, management expects the full conversion to more than double that $18 million rent roll. “We’re going to take their box,” Simon said of one location at Silver Sands Premium Outlets. “It’s in a prime corner of the center. And we have a deal with a great retailer that will do literally maybe 10x the volume.”
On the $4 billion shadow pipeline development projects underwritten but not yet started, Simon confirmed most construction will begin in 2027 and 2028. Flagship mixed-use projects at Boca Raton’s Town Center and San Diego’s Fashion Valley will add multifamily, retail, and dining. About 40% of the pipeline is in these transformative mixed-use developments. The only constraint, per Simon: “It’s not an issue of our desire. It’s not an issue of our capital or the tenant demand. It just takes time to get through some of these processes.”
The least-covered part of the presentation was retail media. Simon launched a retail media network in 2025 and holds a consumer database of approximately 25 million people. The Simon+ loyalty program, launched in November 2025, adds more granular behavioral data. “That 25 million people is a part of a cohort that spends $100 billion a year in our assets,” Simon noted. Monetization through advertising and retailer partnerships is in early stages, but management said it “will grow significantly from here.” This is a revenue stream that consensus models have not yet captured in a meaningful way.
The Numbers Eli Simon Inherited
The 2025 results are the best in Simon’s history. Per the company’s investor relations materials and TIKR data:
- FY2025 total revenue: $6,364.51 million, up from $5,963.80 million in 2024
- FY2025 EBITDA margin: 78.8% on operating revenues
- Real Estate FFO: $4.8 billion for the full year, or $12.73 per share (a record)
- U.S. mall and premium outlet occupancy: 96.4% at year-end 2025; The Mills at 99.2%
- Average base minimum rent: $60.97 per square foot, up 4.7% year-over-year
Management guided 2026 Real Estate FFO (funds from operations, a REIT’s core earnings metric) to $13.00 to $13.25 per share. Eli Simon confirmed at the Citi conference that Simon generates over $1.5 billion in cash flow in excess of dividends annually, funding both the development pipeline and the $2.0 billion share repurchase program announced in February 2026.
Q4 2025 beat estimates across the board. Per TIKR Beats & Misses data, actual Q4 revenue was $1,639.35 million against a $1,507.98 million consensus, an 8.71% beat. Actual EBITDA of $1,311.34 million cleared the $1,176.21 million estimate by 11.49%. The stock moved just +0.80% on January 30, suggesting investors were focused on 2026 guidance rather than celebrating the beat.
One number requires context: Q4 reported FFO included a one-time $120.7 million after-tax charge related to Catalyst Brands’ restructuring, worth $0.31 per diluted share. Underlying operations were stronger than the headline figure suggested.
On the balance sheet, TIKR shows LTM net debt of $28,376.37 million and LTM EBITDA of $4,639.43 million, for a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 5.96x. Simon ended 2025 with more than $9 billion of liquidity and amended its $5.0 billion revolving credit facility in March 2026 at improved terms, a signal of continued lender confidence.
See how Simon Property Group performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $202.12
- Target Price (Mid): ~$263
- Potential Total Return: ~30%
- Annualized IRR: ~6% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Simon Property Group stock (It’s free!) >>>
The TIKR mid-case model prices SPG at approximately $263 by December 31, 2030, assuming a revenue CAGR of around 5.5% and a net income margin of around 38.5%. That is roughly 30% total return over 4.6 years, or about 6% annualized before dividends. With SPG’s 4.4% dividend yield at current prices, total annualized returns could approach 10% for long-term holders.
Two factors drive the mid-case revenue growth. The first is rent escalation: Simon re-leases expiring tenancies at higher rents across a portfolio running above 96% occupancy, compounding pricing power with minimal incremental capital. The second is redevelopment NOI capture from the active $1.5 billion pipeline and the larger $4 billion shadow pipeline beginning to contribute from 2027. The free cash flow margin driver is operating leverage: nearly every incremental dollar of rent falls to EBITDA at these occupancy levels, which is how the company has held 78.8% EBITDA margins while capital expenditures grew.
The primary risk is a second wave of tenant bankruptcies beyond Saks and Catalyst Brands. Suppose tariff-driven pressure spreads to mid-tier apparel anchors, the 96%+ occupancy assumption cracks. The secondary risk is permitting delay: if mixed-use starts slip from 2027 to 2029, the development re-rating catalyst gets deferred two years.
The Street target of approximately $209, from 21 analysts with 8 Buys, 1 Outperform, and 12 Holds, implies only about 3% upside. Street caution reflects rate sensitivity: at 5.96x net debt/EBITDA and an NTM EV/EBITDA of 18.81x, SPG is not inexpensive in absolute terms. The TIKR mid-case exceeds the Street target because it gives credit to the pipeline and retail media optionality that the current consensus multiple does not price in.
Conclusion
The number to watch in today’s Q1 call is domestic property NOI growth versus the 3% floor management guided on February 2. At or above 3% confirms leasing momentum is intact through the transition and tariff noise. Below, it puts the full-year FFO range in question. Watch also for any updates on the Saks Off Fifth re-leasing conversion and whether the retail media network generated any measurable early revenue.
Simon Property Group enters its post-David Simon era, generating record cash flows from an irreplaceable portfolio, with a new CEO who has clearly laid out a $4 billion redevelopment roadmap and a data monetization story the market has not yet priced.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
Should You Invest in Simon Property Group?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Simon Property Group, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Simon Property Group alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Simon Property Group on TIKR Free →
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
