Key Takeaways
- Rocket Lab stock rose 15% in the past week as SpaceX’s stronger third quarter lifted space stocks and Neutron’s second stage and thrust module shipped to Wallops Island for launch-pad testing.
- The shipment is real progress since the Oct. 14 delay, but Neutron’s first launch is still set for 2027, with no date, and so is the adjusted EBITDA turn tied to it.
- Even after the bounce, the stock is down about 19% in a month and trades above its five-year average forward sales multiple.
- The Nov. 9 third-quarter report and a firmer Neutron launch date are the next tests, and they matter more than the bounce.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock is up 15% in the past week (through Tuesday’s close). SpaceX (SPCX) gave space stocks a lift, and Neutron hardware started moving toward the launch pad.
Even so, the stock is still down about 19% in the past month and 61% from its May high.
A dome delay set this up
On Oct. 14, Rocket Lab moved Neutron’s first launch into 2027. Inspectors had found tiny voids between the carbon fiber layers of a first-stage tank dome. “Possible success isn’t our standard,” CEO Sir Peter Beck said in that day’s presentation.
And CFO Adam Spice expects positive adjusted EBITDA one quarter after Neutron’s first successful flight. So that can’t come before the second quarter of 2027.
Neutron hardware heads to the pad
After Monday’s close, Rocket Lab said on X that Neutron’s second stage and thrust module were on a barge to Launch Complex 3 at Wallops Island, Virginia. Testing there lets engineers check how the thrust module fits the pad before final assembly. Shares rose 8% on Tuesday as small-cap space stocks bounced.
It’s real progress. But the first stage, where the dome trouble turned up, isn’t part of this shipment.
Most of the rest of the week’s gain traces to SpaceX. Its stronger third quarter, reported after the Oct. 20 close, lifted space stocks the next day.
TIKR tracks 21 analysts on Rocket Lab. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rocket Lab, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rocket Lab’s Analyst Ratings
Nov. 9 is the next test
Rocket Lab reports third-quarter results on Nov. 9, against guidance of $250 million to $265 million in revenue. Wall Street still expects revenue to more than double from 2025 to 2027…
…but Citizens JMP, which cut its target to $90 from $130, says the delay hits 2027 and 2028 launch revenue hardest. Those estimates could still come down.
The bounce makes it pricier
At 28.7x forward sales on Monday, Rocket Lab still traded above its 21.0x five-year average, and Tuesday’s jump came after that. Analysts’ $102 consensus target sits about 75% above Tuesday’s close.
My take: The pad tests are a good sign. But Rocket Lab still hasn’t put a date on Neutron’s first flight, and the stock still trades above its usual multiple. I’d wait for the Nov. 9 report before buying.
Of course, a named first-half 2027 launch date on that call could change that quickly.
So what is Rocket Lab stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
