Key Stats for Block Stock
- Current Price: $76.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$137
- Street Target: ~$98
- Potential Total Return: ~80%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
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What Happened?
Wall Street’s profit forecasts for Block (XYZ) climbed sharply in 2026, and the stock only partly followed. The next-12-month normalized EPS estimate rose 51%, from $3.03 at the end of 2025 to $4.58 on October 23, according to TIKR. Shares rose 17% over the same stretch, from $65.09 to $76.46.
BMO Capital upgraded Block to Outperform on October 22, arguing the multiple has been stuck since February’s job cuts. The stock fell 3.24% on October 23 as fintech shares slid, with third-quarter results due after the close on November 3.
A 51% Estimate Jump Bought a Lower P/E
Block’s forward P/E fell from about 22 times at the end of 2025 to about 17 times on October 23, close to where it sat on March 31 and September 30, per TIKR. Part of the estimate jump reflects the 12-month window rolling toward 2027. The pattern still holds: profit forecasts rose, and the multiple shrank to absorb them.
BMO analyst Andrew Bauch made that case in his upgrade, noting the multiple stayed rangebound even as product and go-to-market execution improved and Square’s payment volume accelerated. Reports put his target at about $100, roughly in line with the Street’s $98.15 mean.
On October 23, Truist trimmed its target to $89 from $93 and kept a Buy in a broader fintech preview. Affirm (AFRM) fell 3.20% the same session, which points to a sector move as well. TIKR shows 29 Buys, 10 Outperforms, 8 Holds, and no Sells, so the Street was already bullish before BMO moved.
The lower multiple also stretches Block’s cash. CFO and COO Amrita Ahuja said at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 9 that Block expects about 20% of gross profit to become non-GAAP free cash flow, with about 80% of that returned to shareholders, a framework she said can vary quarter to quarter. At about 17 times forward earnings, each repurchase dollar buys more earnings than it did at 22 times.
TIKR tracks 47 analysts on Block. How many say “Buy”? See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Block, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Block’s Analyst Ratings
Neighborhoods Gets Its First Test on November 3
Ahuja’s clearest new growth lever is Neighborhoods, which lets Cash App users earn local cash to spend at Square sellers. About 90% of sellers enrolled automatically have stayed in, and in the weeks before September 9, Block decided to increase participating sellers 10x. Half of Neighborhoods buyers, she said, “have not been recent actives or are brand new to Cash App.”
That matters because Block expects only low single-digit growth from Cash App’s roughly 59 million monthly actives. Ahuja said she expects Neighborhoods to “start to be a little bit more meaningful from a Cash App actives perspective in the back half of this year,” with the seller-demand case following in 2027. The third-quarter report is the first to cover that window.
The Federal Trade Commission disclosed in October 7 court filings, Bloomberg reported, that it is investigating whether Block provided adequate customer service for frozen or deactivated accounts, and it asked a judge to order Block to turn over documents. That is an investigation, not an enforcement action.
As of its second-quarter filing, Block had accrued $526 million for an unresolved Justice Department inquiry and warned the final cost could be higher. Second-quarter GAAP EPS was $0.15, against $1.02 adjusted.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $76.46
- Target Price (Mid): ~$137
- Potential Total Return: ~80%
- Annualized IRR: ~15% / year
The mid case fits because it does not need BMO to be right. Its 2025 to 2035 inputs assume revenue growth around 9% a year, net margins near 12%, and EPS growth around 16%, with the P/E shrinking about 3% a year, so earnings growth does all the work. Cash App and Square volume drive revenue, and the leaner cost base drives margins. A rerating would push returns above the mid case; heavier credit losses or a regulatory charge above the accrual would pull them below it.
Conclusion
Watch Cash App monthly actives on November 3. A clear move above 59 million would be the first sign Neighborhoods is working as Ahuja described. Flat actives push the test into 2027 and leave Block priced on estimates alone.
So what is Block stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
