Key Stats for Riot Platforms Stock
- Current Price: $12.53
- Target Price (Mid): ~$66
- Street Target: ~$30
- Potential Total Return: ~431%
- Annualized IRR: ~49% / year
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What Happened?
Riot Platforms, Inc. (RIOT) closed at $12.53 on October 23, just below its $12.67 close on December 31, 2025. A rally that touched a $30.32 intraday high on June 22 is gone, and shares have lost 37.8% since September 30 alone.
Analysts have moved far less. TIKR consensus for Riot’s 2028 revenue barely changed in October, even as the price fell by more than a third. That gap sets up the November 4 earnings call, scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET.
Near-Term Estimates Held While 2029 and 2030 Moved on Thin Coverage
Between September 30 and October 26, the TIKR consensus average for Riot’s 2028 revenue slipped 1.55%, to $1.21 billion, with 11 analysts. The 2027 average fell 1.21%. The outer years moved more on thin coverage: the 2029 average fell 16.2% as coverage rose from two analysts to three, and 2030 fell 27.0% as it rose from one to two. The mean Street target of $29.84 now sits 138% above the share price, the widest gap in TIKR’s six snapshots back to September 2025.
No Riot-specific announcement explains the slide. Benzinga reported on October 24 that MARA Holdings (MARA) had fallen to its lowest level since February. Core Scientific (CORZ) traded at $13.10, against a year-to-date high of $30, as credit worries spread across AI data center builders. Piper Sandler cut its Riot target to $19 from $25 on October 20, and TIKR’s lowest Street target is $13. Riot’s enterprise value sits near 7 times next-12-months revenue. That is in line with MARA and slightly below Core Scientific at about 8, while IREN (IREN) trades near 4.
TIKR consensus sees third-quarter revenue of about $159 million, down from $174.24 million in the second quarter, and EBITDA of about $10 million. Riot’s EBITDA came in below consensus in each of the last three reported quarters, but that line is noisy. CFO Jason Chung said second-quarter results included a $75 million mark-to-market loss on Riot’s Bitcoin holdings.
TIKR tracks 22 analysts on Riot Platforms. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Riot Platforms, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Riot Platforms’ Analyst Ratings
Riot’s First Public LOI Reaches Its First Earnings Call
In August, Riot said its entire Corsicana campus, with room for up to 756 megawatts of critical IT capacity, was under a nonbinding letter of intent with a single tenant. CEO Jason Les explained why that disclosure was unusual: “every deal that we’ve announced previously had an LOI at some point before progressing to a lease, and we chose not to disclose that.”
November 4 is the first earnings call since Riot made an LOI public. Les also warned that “this process can still take a number of twists and turns, and it’s subject to uncertainty.” Riot has not named the tenant or the terms.
AMD (AMD) offers a nearer path. It can lease another 50 megawatts at Rockdale on economics Les described as largely the same as its current 50. A further 100 megawatts opens only after AMD fully leases the first 100, subject to restrictions Riot has not detailed. A roughly $180 million term loan on AMD’s first 25 megawatts was expected by September 30. It had not been announced in a Riot press release as of October 26.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $12.53
- Target Price (Mid): ~$66
- Potential Total Return: ~431%
- Annualized IRR: ~49% / year
The mid case is a scenario, not a forecast, and it leans on years few analysts cover.
- Revenue Driver: The mid case assumes revenue compounds around 38% a year from 2025 through 2035. Consensus has revenue rising about 54% from 2027 to 2028, to $1.21 billion, as AI lab rent begins.
- Margin Driver: Consensus EBITDA margin climbs from around 16% in 2027 to around 33% in 2028.
- Primary Risk: Beyond 2028, consensus rests on two or three analysts, and those averages fell 16% to 27% in October.
- Upside: AMD taking its next 50 megawatts would add rent on a design Riot has already delivered.
- Downside: Further outer-year declines would pull the 2030 target down with them.
Conclusion
The cleaner number on November 4 is operating lease revenue. It was $4.9 million in the second quarter, at an 84% gross margin, and AMD’s full 25 megawatts were delivered only in mid-May. A first full quarter that barely improves on $4.9 million would undercut the rent ramp the 2028 estimate depends on. An update on Corsicana would be the other signal.
So what is Riot Platforms stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
