Key Takeaways:
- Member Growth: SoFi added a record 1.1 million members in Q2, bringing the total to 15.8 million, up 35%.
- Price Projection: Based on current execution, SOFI stock could reach $22 by December 2028.
- Potential Gains: This target implies a total return of 51% from the current price of $14.62.
- Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 21% growth per year over the next 2.2 years.
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SoFi Technologies (SOFI) posted a record Q2. Revenue rose 40% to $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA grew 44% to $358 million, a 30% margin.
The company raised its 2026 revenue outlook to $4.75 billion to $4.85 billion, which indicates growth up to 35%, up from 30% before.
EPS is still expected at about $0.60, and a higher tax rate of 22% cut about $0.05 from the forecast. SoFi also chose to spend extra revenue on new products rather than raise profit targets.
Interest rates added pressure, and SoFi now expects one to two rate hikes this year, not the two cuts it planned for.
The stock has fallen 48% in a year. At $14.62, investors are paying far less for a business that is still growing fast.
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What the Model Says for SoFi Stock
We looked at SoFi as it turns from a lender into a full financial “everything app.”
Members are buying more products. Total products reached 24.4 million, up 42%. About 51% of new products now come from existing members, up from 35% a year ago.
That keeps acquisition costs low and also pushes more members toward loans, SoFi’s biggest earner.
Fee-based income is growing, too. SoFi’s loan platform business lets partners buy loans it originates. It also signed Sixth Street for up to $1 billion in personal loans.
It signed a three-year, $3 billion deal with Basepoint Capital for small business loans.
Using a forecast of 27.4% annual revenue growth and 21% operating margins, our model projects the stock will rise to $22.08 within 2.2 years. This assumes a 20.2x price-to-earnings multiple.
That is between SoFi’s one-year average of 33x and three-year average of 15.9x. The model does not need the market to pay up again.
Our Valuation Assumptions
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Our Valuation Assumptions
TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.
Here’s what we used for SoFi stock:
1. Revenue Growth: 27.4%
SoFi grew revenue 35.6% during 2025, and the three-year pace was about 32%.
Demand is still strong as loan originations hit a record $14.8 billion in Q2. Personal loans passed $10 billion in a single quarter for the first time.
New products add room to grow. SoFi Plus, its paid membership, passed 200,000 subscribers in one quarter. Management hopes to reach 1 million within a year.
2. Operating margins: 21%
SoFi’s operating margin was 14.7% in 2025, and three years ago, it averaged much below that.
Our 21% assumes the climb continues. Management says its extra profit on each new dollar of revenue is already about 30% and the long-term goal is a net margin of 25% to 30%.
Credit looks healthy. The personal loan charge-off rate fell to 3.7%, while the company’s net interest margin was 5.98%, and it expects to stay above 5%.
3. Exit P/E Multiple: 20.2x
SoFi trades at 20.2x forward earnings today. We assume it stays there.
That is only a little above the three-year average of 15.9x. We stay cautious because higher rates can slow lending and raise funding costs.
The balance sheet gives some comfort. Tangible book value is $7.34 per share, up 56%. SoFi’s capital ratio is 18.8%, and it says it can grow without raising new capital.
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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?
Lenders are sensitive to rates and credit. Here’s how SoFi stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:
- Low Case: If revenue growth slows to 20.0% and net income margins reach 18.3%, investors still see a 73.3% total return (14.0% annually). That implies a price of $25.33.
- Mid Case: With 22.2% growth and 19.5% margins, we expect a total return of 131.5% (22.2% annually). That implies a price of $33.83.
- High Case: If growth reaches 24.4% and margins hold at 20.5%, returns could hit 200.3% total (30.0% annually). That implies a price of $43.90.
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The range depends on rates, credit, and cross-selling.
In the low case, rate hikes slow loan demand or loan losses rise.
In the high case, members keep adding products. Small business and home equity loans also grow quickly on the loan platform.
How Much Upside Does SoFi Stock Have From Here?
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All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
