Key Stats for ExxonMobil Stock
- Current Price: $183.21
- Street Target: ~$179
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~7x
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
ExxonMobil (XOM) closed at a record $183.21 on October 23, up 2.79%, as Brent crude settled at $116.72, its highest close since April. Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) also traded at all-time highs that day, so the move tracked oil more than anything Exxon announced. Shares are up about 52% in 2026 and now sit above the $179.41 mean Street target. With third-quarter results due October 30, a buyer at a record should know which part of the story Exxon controls when crude stops helping.
The Permian Lever Exxon Controls
At Barclays’ energy conference on September 9, Chief Financial Officer Neil Hansen said of the Pioneer acquisition: “we anticipated achieving about $2 billion a year of synergies, and we’ve been able to double that.” Permian output hit a record of more than 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels a day in the second quarter, according to Exxon’s July 31 results.
The bigger lever is recovery. Hansen said only a fairly small share of the Permian’s oil in place is being recovered, and described doubling Permian recovery as what he called a stated objective, pursued through 40 complementary technologies across primary and secondary recovery. Some, he said, “will produce the same amount of volume, but with fewer wells.” Fewer wells per barrel means less capital per barrel, a cost gain Exxon controls whatever crude does. Doubling recovery is an objective, not a result, and Hansen gave no date for it.
Infineum Fits the Divestment Pattern, but It Is Small
On October 22, the Financial Times reported that Infineum, the fuel and lubricant additives maker Exxon owns 50:50 with Shell (SHEL), has hired Bank of America to explore a sale at about $8 billion. The FT framed it as part of Shell’s push to shed chemicals assets, said the process is early and may not produce a deal, and Reuters could not verify the report. Exxon’s half would be roughly $4 billion of that valuation, about 0.5% of its $753 billion market value.
A sale would fit the pattern Hansen described, saying “a lot of” Exxon’s structural savings so far have come from divestments. He expects future savings to come “more and more from the organization we’ve designed.”
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Exxon Mobil. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Exxon Mobil, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Exxon Mobil’s Analyst Ratings
What a Record Price Rests On
Exxon trades at around 7x NTM EV/EBITDA, against around 5x for both TotalEnergies (TTE) and Eni (ENI). That premium rests on execution more than on today’s oil price. Hansen said Exxon is, on average, executing “double the number of major projects relative to competition,” at “20% lower cost and 20% faster,” a comparison drawn by Exxon itself rather than an independent benchmark. If those gains hold as oil normalizes, the premium has support; if they fade, buyers are paying a premium multiple for a company earning like its peers.
Conclusion
On October 30, consensus calls for adjusted EPS of around $4, after a $3.52 adjusted second quarter that missed estimates. Reported earnings will also carry about $2.5 billion of derivative timing effects Exxon flagged on October 16, so the adjusted figure is the cleaner read. The line that tests the record is Permian output against the second quarter’s more than 1.8 million barrels a day: another step up supports the premium, while a flat quarter leaves the stock leaning on Brent.
So what is ExxonMobil stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what ExxonMobil could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Analyze ExxonMobil on TIKR Free →
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
