Key Stats for Rivian Stock
- Current Price: $11.83
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Street Target: ~$19
- Potential Total Return: ~116%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
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What Happened?
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) closed at $11.83 on October 23, down 1.91%, after touching a 52-week low of $11.60. Shares had already fallen 19.28% from their September 30 close of $14.94 to $12.06 on October 22, before TechCrunch reported after that day’s close that Rivian had bought Third Dimension, a U.K. startup whose AI turns images and video into 3D worlds. Rivian plans to use the technology for self-driving simulation, and its October 29 third-quarter report is the next check on how much spending the business can carry.
Rivian’s Autonomy Chief Named the Bottleneck. Then Rivian Bought a Simulator
At Evercore ISI’s ADAS, AV & AI Forum on September 29, James Philbin, Rivian’s SVP of Autonomy and AI, named three things standing between Rivian and eyes-off driving: model performance, validation, and regulation. On validation, he said, “you really don’t want to do that by having to drive every release, you want to do it offline in the cloud.”
Third Dimension targets that second gate. Philbin told TechCrunch the goal is “taking real scenarios, but making them simulatable,” so engineers can move cameras, shift other road users, or change lighting and weather inside real recorded scenes. That fits his September view that simulation augments real-world data rather than replacing it. The 15-person team joins a group that receives more than 400,000 driving sequences a day, according to Philbin.
The deal does not address the third gate. Philbin called state rules a patchwork and said that in New York, “currently, there is no pathway.” The nearer milestone is point-to-point driving, hands-free on surface streets and highways with the driver still supervising. Philbin said rollout begins at the end of 2026, probably with early adopters, aiming to reach the full Autonomy+ fleet later in 2027.
October 29: A Wider Loss Than Q2 on 20% More Revenue
Consensus calls for around $1.99 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 20% from the second quarter’s $1.658 billion. EBITDA is expected at around a $574 million loss, wider than the second quarter’s $379 million loss but narrower than the $602 million loss a year earlier.
At the same conference, Chip Newcom, Rivian’s VP of Investor Relations, said the supply chain “is constraining production within the plant” and that Rivian is “seeing increasing commodity costs,” including DRAM and lithium, which Rivian hedges. Against that, he expects the R2’s bill of materials to run about half of the R1’s. Rivian beat consensus EBITDA in each of its last three reports, yet shares fell 9.57% on July 31, the session after the second-quarter beat.
TIKR tracks 25 analysts on Rivian. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Rivian, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Rivian’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $11.83
- Target Price (Mid): ~$26
- Potential Total Return: ~116%
- Annualized IRR: ~10% / year
The mid case targets around $26 by the end of 2034, about 10% a year. Its inputs do not assume a turnaround: revenue growth of around 2% a year and a net margin near -61%, against a consensus that sees revenue of around $32 billion and a small GAAP profit in 2030. The model also holds the earnings multiple flat, so the target rests on valuation rather than a path to profit. Even the low case, around $22, sits above today’s price on the same loss-making inputs.
The market is paying less for the growth story. Rivian trades at around 1.8 times forward enterprise value to revenue, down from around 2.7 times on June 30, against about 0.9 times for General Motors (GM) and about 1.0 times for Ford (F). The Street’s mean target of around $19 sits about 61% above the price, but only 12 of 25 analysts rate the stock Buy or Outperform, and five rate it Underperform or Sell.
Conclusion
The third-quarter EBITDA loss is the number to read on October 29. A loss narrower than the roughly $574 million consensus, with point-to-point on schedule and Newcom still expecting a milestone-based $250 million Uber (UBER) tranche in the fourth quarter, would show the cost line can carry the autonomy spending. A wider loss would leave the simulator purchase looking like spending ahead of revenue.
So what is Rivian stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
