Key Stats for Robinhood Stock
- Current Price: $95.07
- Target Price (Mid): ~$230
- Street Target: ~$135
- Potential Total Return: ~142%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
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What Happened?
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) fell 6.73% over two sessions, from $101.93 on October 21 to $95.07 on October 23, ahead of third-quarter results due after the close on Tuesday, October 27. Coinbase Global (COIN) fell 7.13% over the same two days, so the selloff hit crypto-exposed trading platforms together. Two October 22 developments got lost in that drop, and both point to crypto activity that may not show up in Robinhood’s crypto revenue line.
Bitcoin Price Bets Are Gaining on Sports
At the NEXTPredict conference in New York on October 22, JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s VP and general manager for futures and prediction markets, said price contracts on bitcoin, crude oil and gold have started to “dominate the marketplace,” as reported by CoinDesk. He called them among the fastest-growing products in prediction markets, though sports is still Robinhood’s largest category.
That matters for a company whose crypto revenue fell 38% year over year in the second quarter. A bet on where bitcoin closes is crypto exposure booked as event contracts, so volatile bitcoin can drive trading even when spot activity is slow. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 on October 24, its weakest level in more than a month, according to CoinDesk. Mackenzie did not say whether he meant volume or revenue, and Robinhood does not break out event contracts revenue by category.
Morpho Opened Stock-Token Lending Markets on October 22
Morpho opened its first lending markets for Robinhood’s stock tokens on October 22, letting holders borrow stablecoins against tokenized shares such as NVDA and SPY on Robinhood Chain. The tokens were built for DeFi use, including as collateral, from the chain’s July 1 mainnet launch, so Morpho widens where they can be borrowed against. The tokens track U.S. shares and are not available to U.S. customers.
Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev explained at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference on September 9 why that openness mattered. Locked inside the Robinhood app in the EU, the tokens sat in “this messy middle of not having any credible differentiators versus traditional stocks,” he said. Activity picked up once developers could use them in DeFi pools and smart contracts. Morpho also powers Robinhood Earn, the stablecoin yield product Tenev pitched in September.
Robinhood’s cut may lag the activity. Under terms in its August operating data, Robinhood keeps 50% of the chain’s sequencer revenue until the total reaches about $50 million, then 70% up to about $150 million and 85% after that, sharing the rest with launch partners.
TIKR tracks 31 analysts on Robinhood. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Robinhood, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Robinhood’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $95.07
- Target Price (Mid): ~$230
- Potential Total Return: ~142%
- Annualized IRR: ~23% / year
The mid case targets around $230 by December 31, 2030. Its 2025 to 2035 inputs assume revenue growth of around 18% a year and net margins of around 41%, while the P/E multiple shrinks about 3% a year, so earnings growth has to carry the return. Upside comes from financial contracts and chain revenue scaling faster than expected. The downside is that trading cools across crypto and sports at once, which would stall both of Robinhood’s newest growth lines.
Conclusion
The October 22 launches fall in the fourth quarter, so the third-quarter numbers due October 27 cannot show them. Those numbers will be measured against roughly $1.43 billion in consensus revenue, up about 12% from a year ago, and GAAP EPS of about $0.55, down from $0.61. The newer test is whether the results break out Robinhood Chain revenue for the chain’s first full quarter on mainnet, since the figures Tenev gave in September were gross daily revenue, not the share Robinhood keeps.
So what is Robinhood stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
