Key Stats for Pfizer Stock
- Current Price: $30.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$29
- Street Target: ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~-3%
- Annualized IRR: ~-1% / year
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What Happened?
Pfizer (PFE) closed at $30.03 on October 23, above Wall Street’s $29.26 mean price target. On September 30, it had closed at $28.52, below the $28.88 mean target at the time. That climb came even as analysts’ next-12-months normalized EPS estimate fell from $2.96 at the end of 2025 to $2.76. Part of that drop is mechanical: the 12-month window now reaches into 2027, a weaker year. Either way, investors are paying more for less expected profit, and the third-quarter report on November 3 is the first test of that trade.
A Higher Multiple on Lower Estimates
Pfizer’s forward P/E ratio rose from about 9 times at the end of 2025 to about 11 times on October 23. Analysts still expect revenue to fall from around $62 billion in 2026 to around $54 billion in 2030.
Part of the case for the higher multiple is that Pfizer’s biggest drag is nearly gone. At a JPMorgan conference on September 22, Alexandre de Germay, Pfizer’s EVP and Chief International Commercial Officer, put COVID revenue at $11 billion in 2024 and about $6.7 billion in 2025, with $4 billion guided for 2026. “It’s not like we all depend on the pipeline,” he said. He added that in cash-pay obesity markets, a drug can launch as soon as it’s approved instead of waiting about 1.5 years for reimbursement. Pfizer’s own obesity drugs are still in development.
The pipeline news over the October 24 to 25 weekend was mixed. Pfizer presented detailed Phase 2 data for its 25-valent infant pneumococcal vaccine. The new detail is functional antibody responses against all 25 serotypes, which adds to topline results first reported in May. Three Phase 3 studies began in 2026.
At ESMO, full data for sigvotatug vedotin, a lung cancer drug Pfizer acquired with Seagen, confirmed that it missed on overall survival. In a post hoc look at second-line patients, those on the drug lived a median of 13.6 months versus 11.1 on chemotherapy.
What November 3 Has to Show
Analysts tracked by TIKR expect third-quarter revenue of around $15.9 billion, down about 5% from a year earlier. They expect adjusted EPS of around $0.73, versus $0.87 a year ago. Pfizer has said a $650 million charge tied to its Innovent deal, worth about $0.10 a share, will be recorded in the third quarter. If analysts include that charge, it accounts for most of the expected EPS drop.
Pfizer has beaten revenue estimates in all five quarters TIKR shows, but its GAAP EPS missed in the last three. The line to watch is launched and acquired products, which grew 18% in the second quarter after 22% in the first. Because sales of older drugs are shrinking, growth near those rates would help support today’s multiple.
TIKR tracks 28 analysts on Pfizer. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Pfizer, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Pfizer’s Analyst Ratings
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $30.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~-3%
- Annualized IRR: ~-1% / year
The mid case is the base scenario. Over its 2025 to 2035 forecast, it assumes revenue shrinks about 1% a year, and net margins hold near 25%. That puts the stock around $29 by the end of 2030, a price return of about -3% before the 5.8% dividend yield.
The main risk is the patent-loss phase de Germay acknowledged. For upside, new vaccines and obesity drugs would need to beat consensus. On the downside, the multiple could fall back toward 9 times.
Most analysts already agree with the model: 17 of 28 rate Pfizer a Hold. If growth in launched and acquired products slips into single digits on November 3, the stock would be trading above its targets with little to support it.
So what is Pfizer stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Pfizer could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
