Key Takeaways
- Affirm signed an exclusive multi-year deal with Sam’s Club, going live online in weeks and in clubs in 2027.
- Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue rose 33% to $1.17 billion as GMV grew 36% to $14.1 billion.
- Affirm carries about $8.3 billion of net debt, so credit performance matters as the loan book scales.
- The November 5 report will show whether GMV lands within the $13.7 billion to $14.0 billion guide.
Affirm (AFRM) lost Walmart (WMT) to Klarna Group (KLAR) in March 2025. Now it has Walmart’s warehouse club.
Affirm signed an exclusive, multi-year deal on October 22 to become the pay-over-time provider for Sam’s Club. The stock slipped 1.5% to $72 that day, then recovered, rising 4.6% to $73 on October 27.
CEO Max Levchin read the win as validation, telling Bloomberg: “every time they pick us, I take it as a vote of confidence.”
That confidence gets tested on November 5, when Affirm reports its fiscal first quarter.
Inside the Sam’s Club win
The deal is simple. Affirm goes live on SamsClub.com in the coming weeks, ahead of the holidays, and in-club checkout follows in 2027.
It also fits a pattern. Costco (COST) added Affirm in May 2025, and Crate & Barrel, Ant International’s Antom, and a U.K. partnership with Amazon (AMZN) followed this fall.
Warehouse clubs suit Affirm’s model. Klarna’s typical order runs around $100, while Sam’s Club members often buy big-ticket electronics where longer installment plans make sense.
The fiscal fourth quarter shows how fast the funnel already moves:
Revenue rose 33% to $1.17 billion, beating the $1.11 billion consensus. GMV grew 36% to $14.1 billion, the 11th straight quarter of growth above 30%.
Profitability looks durable now
The bigger shift is in margins. Adjusted operating margin expanded to 30.3% from 27.0%, and GAAP operating income climbed to $147 million from $58 million.
Headline net income of $1.62 billion overstates things, because a one-time tax benefit drove most of it. Still, the operating trend holds up on its own…
Guidance supports more of the same. Affirm expects fiscal 2027 GMV above $64 billion, roughly 30% growth, with adjusted operating margin above 30.5% and GAAP operating margin above 14.5%.
For the first quarter, it guided GMV to $13.7 billion to $14.0 billion and revenue to $1.19 billion to $1.22 billion. A transformer-based underwriting model rolled out in September should also help approve more shoppers at checkout without raising losses.
TIKR tracks 34 analysts on Affirm. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Affirm, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Affirm’s Analyst Ratings
Leverage is the harder part
Affirm trades at 18.9x forward earnings and 19.2x forward EBITDA, with a Street target near $99.
Funding is the pressure point. Affirm carries about $8.3 billion of net debt, or 11.1x trailing EBITDA, because it holds and finances a large loan book.
How has the balance sheet grown alongside GMV?
Macro adds risk too. September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, above expectations, and the Fed sets rates on October 28. Meanwhile, the CFO, COO, and chief accounting officer all sold shares in recent weeks.
My take: Sam’s Club is a quality win in a channel Affirm understands, and the margin story looks durable. I’d add on weakness, but only while delinquencies stay contained as the loan book scales.
On November 5, watch GMV against the $13.7 billion to $14.0 billion range and any commentary on credit heading into the holidays.
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Disclaimer:
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