Home Depot Fell 16% in the Last 30 Days. Here’s How Much Upside the Stock Could Have in 2026

Key Stats for HD Stock

• Past-30-Day Performance: -16%
• 52-Week Range: $320 to $427
• Valuation Model Target Price: $429
• Implied Upside: 33%

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What Happened?

Home Depot stock is under pressure alongside the broader home improvement sector in 2026, as investors focus on whether weak housing turnover and elevated mortgage rates will continue to limit demand for large renovation projects, with the company at the center of that debate alongside peers like Lowe’s, which has a similar exposure to DIY customers but has been working to expand its professional contractor business to better compete with Home Depot’s stronger Pro segment.

Home Depot stock fell about 16% over the past 30 days, finishing near $322 per share, primarily because earnings declined year-over-year and demand for high-ticket renovation projects remained weak, as fewer home sales and tighter affordability reduced spending on larger, higher-margin projects.

This month, Home Depot reported fiscal 2025 sales of $164.7 billion, up 3.2%, with U.S. comp sales rising 0.5%, while fourth quarter comp sales increased 0.4% and adjusted EPS declined to $2.72 from $3.13 last year.

CEO Ted Decker said on the company’s latest earnings call that underlying demand remained stable and noted Home Depot is “uniquely positioned to grow share of wallet,” as Pro demand outperformed DIY and online sales grew about 11% in the quarter, while the company guided for fiscal 2026 sales growth of 2.5% to 4.5% and comp growth of flat to 2%.

Analyst expectations and institutional activity reinforced the cautious sentiment. Analyst price targets suggest moderate upside from current levels, while institutional positioning showed notable trimming, with Congress Asset Management cutting its stake by 76.6%, Wealth Enhancement Advisory reducing its position by 21.9%, and Nordea Investment Management lowering its holdings by 19.9%.

Additional reductions came from Assenagon Asset Management and Dynamic Advisor Solutions, while firms like Avanza Fonder and NorthCrest Asset Management modestly increased exposure, highlighting mixed conviction as institutional ownership remains elevated at about 71% of the company.

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Is HD Undervalued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.2%
• Operating Margins: 13.2%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 21.4x

Revenue growth is expected to remain in the low-to-mid single-digit range as demand normalizes following elevated pandemic-era trends, with slower housing turnover limiting large discretionary projects while maintenance and smaller-scale spending remain more stable.

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Future performance is increasingly tied to the Pro segment, where professional contractors generate larger and more recurring orders, supported by investments in delivery capabilities, supply chain integration, and acquisitions like SRS that expand the company’s reach in professional end markets.

This dynamic supports more stable revenue and margin performance over time, as Pro demand has recently outperformed DIY and helps offset ongoing pressure in larger renovation projects tied to housing activity.

Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $429, implying about 33% total upside over roughly 3 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current levels.

Performance in 2026 will likely depend on stabilization in housing activity, continued share gains in the Pro segment, and a recovery in big-ticket demand, with margin performance supported by pricing discipline and operational efficiency.

How Much Upside Does HD Stock Have From Here?

Investors can estimate The Home Depot’s potential share price, or what any stock could be worth, in under a minute using TIKR’s New Valuation Model tool.

All it takes is three simple inputs:

1. Revenue Growth
2. Operating Margins
3. Exit P/E Multiple

From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.

If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.

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