Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Current Price: $51.37
- Mid-Case Target (to 5/31/30): $109.44
- Street Mean Target: $74.97
- Potential Total Return (to 5/31/30): +113%
- Annualized IRR (to 5/31/30): 19.80% / year
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What Happened?
Nike (NKE) set a fresh 52-week low of $51.20 on March 27, 2026, sitting roughly 70% below its November 2021 highs.
The bears point to six straight quarters of Greater China decline, a $1.5 billion annual tariff headwind, and share losses to rivals like On Running and Hoka. The bulls point to accelerating North America wholesale momentum, a running category growing over 20% for two consecutive quarters, and a World Cup product cycle just getting started.
The unresolved question: is the worst already in the price?
The last earnings update came on December 18, 2025, when NKE fell 10.54% in a single session despite beating consensus. Revenue came in at $12.43 billion, up 1% year-over-year, and diluted EPS of $0.53 beat the $0.38 estimate by 40%.
What drove the selloff was Greater China, down 17% for its sixth consecutive quarterly decline, and gross margin, which fell 300 basis points to 40.6% as tariffs overwhelmed underlying improvement.
Elliott Hill, Nike’s President and CEO, described the moment plainly on that call: “I’d say we’re in the middle innings of our comeback.” He added that “margin expansion is a top priority for me and my leadership team. While it will take time, we see the path back to double-digit EBIT margins for NIKE, Inc.”
Matt Friend, EVP and CFO of Nike, Inc., quantified the headwind: “$1.5 billion of annualized incremental product costs due to higher U.S. tariffs,” a gross headwind of roughly 320 basis points, with actions underway to reduce the net impact to approximately 120 basis points.
For tomorrow’s Q3 print, consensus expects EPS of $0.29 on revenue of roughly $11.22 billion. The headline matters less than what management says about China’s trajectory and the pace of margin recovery.
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Is Nike Undervalued Today?
At $51.37, Nike trades at 28.14x NTM (next-twelve-months) P/E, 19.75x NTM EV/EBITDA (enterprise value relative to operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), and 1.67x NTM EV/Revenue. The Street mean target of $74.97 implies 46% upside.
This week alone, Evercore ISI cut its target to $69 from $77 while keeping an Outperform rating, Telsey Advisory trimmed to $65 from $72 (Market Perform), and Deutsche Bank reduced to $54 from $67 (Hold). The Street is not abandoning Nike. It is resetting to a longer recovery timeline.
The valuation case rests on what the current price is actually pricing in.
Nike is deliberately running down its Classic footwear franchises, which are on track to decline more than $4 billion from peak levels by fiscal year-end. Running grew by over 20% for two consecutive quarters.
World Cup football booking units are running nearly 40% ahead of the 2022 cycle, per the Q2 earnings call. These point to a brand in a purposeful reset, not structural decline.
Adidas trades at 7.75x NTM EV/EBITDA and lululemon at 6.60x, against a 41-company sector median of 8.74x. Nike’s 19.75x premium reflects brand scale, the Jordan franchise, and a marketing budget no rival matches. The risk is that the premium keeps compressing if China does not stabilize.
Tariffs are the variable hardest to model.
Nike manufactures heavily in Vietnam and Indonesia. Excluding the 315-basis-point tariff impact, management said Q3 gross margin would have expanded, meaning the underlying business is healing beneath the headline numbers.
If mitigation actions take hold faster than expected, margin recovery could surprise to the upside. If China deteriorates further, the bear case builds.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $51.37
- Mid-Case Target (to 5/31/30): $109.44
- Potential Total Return: +113%
- Annualized IRR: 19.80% / year
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The mid-case uses a 4.8% revenue CAGR to fiscal 2030, driven by North America wholesale recovery and gradual Greater China stabilization. Despite six quarters of decline, China still contributed $6.59 billion in FY2025 revenue. Even a modest return to growth there would have an outsized impact on consolidated results. The margin driver is full-price mix improvement: as Classic inventory clears and promotional activity recedes, the net income margin is projected to recover from approximately 4.8% in FY2026 toward 8.6% by fiscal 2030. The primary risk is a prolonged deterioration in China, where domestic rivals Anta and Li-Ning continue gaining share and Nike cannot re-establish its premium position.
The high case reaches $173.40 by 5/31/30 at a 16.0% IRR, assuming the “Win Now” playbook scales faster and the 2026 FIFA World Cup drives outsized growth. The low case lands at $117.66 at a 10.7% IRR, reflecting persistent tariff pressure and slower China recovery. Notably, even the low case implies double-digit annualized returns from today’s entry price.
Conclusion: The single metric to watch tomorrow is Greater China revenue. If Q3 shows the pace of decline moderating from the 17% reported in Q2, Hill has tangible evidence that the China reset is working. Watch for Q3 earnings on March 31 after market close at investors.nike.com.
At $51.37, Nike is priced for a turnaround that keeps being delayed. The TIKR mid-case projects 113% total return to May 31, 2030. The bet is not that Nike’s problems are over. It is that they are already in the price.
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Should You Invest in Nike?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Nike, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Nike alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
