Key Stats for Gilead Sciences Stock
- Current Price: $131.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$168
- Street Target (Mean): $158.07
- Potential Total Return: ~28%
- Annualized IRR: ~5% / year
- Earnings Reaction: -2.04% (May 8, 2026)
- Max Drawdown: -18.00% (April 27, 2026)
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What Happened?
Gilead Sciences (GILD) sits 17% below its 52-week high of $157.29, trading at $131.33 even after delivering a clean Q1 2026 beat and raising full-year revenue guidance on May 7. Bulls see a mispricing: a company with no major loss of exclusivity until 2036, a twice-yearly HIV prevention drug already tracking toward blockbuster status in its first full commercial year, and four product launches on the 2026 schedule. Bears counter that $11.5 billion in acquisition-related charges landing simultaneously on the income statement, three integrations running in parallel, and a GAAP loss forecast for the year justify caution regardless of what the base business delivers.
What the Numbers Said
The beat was real. Q1 total product sales came in at $6.96 billion, up 4.4% year over year, against TIKR consensus estimates of approximately $6.94 billion. Adjusted EPS of $2.03 came in 6.30% above the TIKR consensus estimate of $1.91, up from $1.81 in Q1 2025. CFO Andrew Dickinson raised the full-year base business guidance range by $400 million to $29.4 billion–$29.8 billion, implying 5%–6% growth for the year.
HIV drove the quarter. CCO Johanna Mercier reported Q1 HIV sales of $5.0 billion, up 10% year over year. Biktarvy posted $3.4 billion in Q1 sales, up 7% year over year, while holding more than 52% of the U.S. HIV treatment market. The U.S. PrEP (HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis, meaning preventive medication taken before potential exposure) business grew 87% year over year, fueled by Descovy’s total Q1 sales of $807 million and the early ramp of Yeztugo.
Yeztugo, the twice-yearly injectable PrEP that launched in mid-2025, posted Q1 sales of $166 million, up 72% sequentially. That pace prompted management to raise its full-year Yeztugo guidance from $800 million to $1 billion, a blockbuster territory in the drug’s first full commercial year. Mercier noted that approximately 95% of U.S. patients are now covered by insurance for Yeztugo, with 95% of those accessing it at zero co-pay.
Outside HIV, Trodelvy, Gilead’s ADC (antibody-drug conjugate, a cancer therapy that delivers a toxic payload directly to tumor cells) for breast cancer posted $402 million in Q1, up 37% year over year. Livdelzi, the company’s treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (a chronic liver disease), more than tripled year over year to $133 million.
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Why the Stock Is Still Down
The answer is accounting, not operations.
Gilead’s three recent acquisitions, Arcellx (closed April 28) for $7.8 billion, Ouro Medicines, and Tubulis, require their upfront payments to be expensed immediately as acquired IPR&D (in-process research and development costs for programs not yet commercially viable). That combined $11.5 billion charge, plus transaction financing costs, drags the full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS into a loss range of $0.65–$1.05 per share.
Dickinson addressed this directly on the call: strip out those transaction items, and non-GAAP EPS guidance is $8.45–$8.85, in line with the February outlook Gilead gave before any of the three deals were announced. The base business is holding its own. The decline reflects an unwillingness to look through those charges, not deteriorating fundamentals.
Bears do have a legitimate point beyond the accounting. Three integrations running alongside four commercial launches is a real execution risk. Cell therapy sales of $407 million were down 12% year over year, a reminder that competition in existing CAR-T indications is ongoing. Any pipeline miss in H2 from Trodelvy’s first-line TNBC (triple-negative breast cancer, a subtype lacking hormone receptors that make it harder to treat) regulatory decision, the anito-cel December PDUFA date (the FDA’s statutory review deadline), or the BIC/LEN launch in late August would pressure the thesis materially.
On valuation multiples, AbbVie (ABBV) trades at 12.34x NTM EV/EBITDA and Amgen (AMGN) at 10.31x, against Gilead’s current 24.37x per TIKR. The gap looks stark, but it is almost entirely driven by the IPR&D charges suppressing Gilead’s near-term EBITDA. On a normalized 2027 basis, the spread compresses considerably.
What the Pipeline Delivers Next
The Q1 call was specific on second-half catalysts in a way that the prior quarter was not.
The most commercially important number is Yeztugo’s persistency curve whether patients return for their second injection six months after the first. Mercier described early return-visit data as “very encouraging” and noted the direct-to-consumer campaign launched in late February is already building awareness. If persistency holds, the $1 billion full-year guide will look conservative.
BIC/LEN (bictegravir plus lenacapavir, a once-daily oral HIV treatment combination) is under FDA priority review with an August decision expected. Mercier identified two addressable markets: the roughly 5%–6% of people with HIV still on complex multi-tablet regimens who could consolidate to one pill, and the broader Switch segment. “With BIC/LEN, there’s an opportunity to play in the Switch market, which we haven’t had in the past,” Mercier said, framing it as a tool to retain patients who would otherwise move to competitors.
Anito-cel, Gilead’s CAR-T (chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy, which reprograms a patient’s own immune cells to attack cancer) for multiple myeloma, has a December PDUFA date. Kite EVP Cindy Perettie noted iMMagine-3 enrollment completed faster than expected and that a majority of authorized treatment centers are expected to be activated within Q1 2027. Management cited the addressable fourth-line-plus multiple myeloma market at $3.5 billion.
Trodelvy’s first-line metastatic TNBC regulatory decision is also expected in H2 2026. The NCCN (National Comprehensive Cancer Network, whose guidelines directly shape physician prescribing) has already issued Category 1, its highest evidence designation across both PD-L1-positive and negative first-line patients, pulling demand into earlier lines ahead of formal approval.
CEO Daniel O’Day closed the call with this: “We have up to 4 potential upcoming launches before the end of the year and up to 5 Phase III updates this year.” For a company the market has long treated as a single-franchise HIV story, that is a materially different operating description.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $131.33
- Target Price (Mid): ~$168
- Potential Total Return: ~28%
- Annualized IRR: ~5% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model prices GILD at around $168 by December 31, 2030, based on a revenue CAGR of around 5% and net income margins expanding toward around 41%. The two revenue drivers are the Yeztugo ramp, where management just established a $1 billion base in year one, and Trodelvy’s expansion into first-line breast cancer indications. The margin driver is the expiration of a long-standing TAF-related royalty obligation confirmed in Q1 2026, which pushed product gross margin to 87%, up 2 percentage points year over year, combined with SG&A normalization as integration costs roll off post-acquisition.
Of the analysts covering GILD, 18 Buy, 5 Outperform, 8 Hold, 1 No Opinion, 0 Sell. The mean Street target of $158.07 implies around 20% upside from current levels, with the Street high at $180. No analyst carries a Sell. That consensus, combined with a stock that sold off after raising guidance, is the divergence worth paying attention to.
Free cash flow normalizes sharply in 2027 as IPR&D charges roll off. TIKR consensus projects 2027E FCF of approximately $13.3 billion, giving Gilead the runway to sustain its 2.4% dividend while continuing ordinary-course business development. Dickinson confirmed on the call it is “less likely” Gilead pursues more sizable M&A this year, removing one source of near-term balance sheet uncertainty.
The primary risk is binary. A negative anito-cel FDA decision in December erases the near-term oncology catalyst and likely pushes the stock toward the Street’s low target of $122. A negative first-line TNBC outcome for Trodelvy compounds that pressure. Both are real possibilities worth sizing for.
Conclusion
Watch Yeztugo’s Q2 2026 revenue at Gilead’s next earnings call, expected in early August. A quarterly run rate above $250 million would put the company on track for its $1 billion full-year target and confirm that patients are returning for their second injection, the metric that separates a durable franchise from a first-dose story. The BIC/LEN FDA decision that same month is a compound catalyst: approval adds a second HIV revenue stream before year-end. Gilead is running the most active pipeline year in its history while the stock sits 17% below its 52-week high as management has already stripped out of its operating guidance. The fundamentals and the price are telling different stories.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
